2/15 Snow threat

[WE GOT HIM]

The progressiveness of it is what could really be a concern... if only something can slow it down a little.

Yea seriously just by like 3 hours too

[JetsPens87]

I was just going to say what a monster storm...its influence extends from Cuba to Green land

 

Amazing storm, sorry for anyone who felt they got shafted yesterday but it truly was a remarkable storm to track. An absolute nuke of a system that generated WIDE reaching snow and ice for millions and millions from gulf coast to coastal Maine, not to mention thunderstorms in the middle of Feb that have rivaled some of the more vivid lightning I've seen in recent memory (yes that includes spring/summer) and then more snow on the backside to boot. If that doesn't get your jollies going then idn what will.

[JetsPens87]

The progressiveness of it is what could really be a concern... if only something can slow it down a little.

 

Yea JM, the flow is just screaming behind our departing system. There is hardly any room for this vort to pump heights ahead of it as it continues to dig. If it can happen any sooner then the models are currently showing than it could be much better, however I am seriously intrigued by the mid level features. We've pulled off much more with much less favorable mid level features.

[REDMK6GLI]

Amazing storm, sorry for anyone who felt they got shafted yesterday but it truly was a remarkable storm to track. An absolute nuke of a system that generated WIDE reaching snow and ice for millions and millions from gulf coast to coastal Maine, not to mention thunderstorms in the middle of Feb that have rivaled some of the more vivid lightning I've seen in recent memory (yes that includes spring/summer) and then more snow on the backside to boot. If that doesn't get your jollies going then idn what will.

think its going to rank from #6-#10 on NESIS  from my rough guesstimate jetspens87

[WE GOT HIM]

Amazing storm, sorry for anyone who felt they got shafted yesterday but it truly was a remarkable storm to track. An absolute nuke of a system that generated WIDE reaching snow and ice for millions and millions from gulf coast to coastal Maine, not to mention thunderstorms in the middle of Feb that have rivaled some of the more vivid lightning I've seen in recent memory (yes that includes spring/summer) and then more snow on the backside to boot. If that doesn't get your jollies going then idn what will.

Yea it was a hell of a storm, How often do you see it snowing at the VA and NC coast and raining in Boston and even parts of Maine...Such a tough forecast as well

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

man I hope this works out. after mother nature's prank last night with the terrible back end another let down would officially make me want to backhand her this GFS run I want to get excited over but I want to see 0z GFS follow suit first

How was it a let down you were all over it!

I think there will be big winners and losers tomorrow with some getting a coating and ten inch jackpot

[EasternLI]

Winter storm watch for out here......nice

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND IN NEW YORK AND NEW LONDON
COUNTY IN CONNECTICUT

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AS MUCH AS 6 TO 8 INCHES.

* SNOWFALL RATES...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

[JetsPens87]

Yea it was a hell of a storm, How often do you see it snowing at the VA and NC coast and raining in Boston and even parts of Maine...Such a tough forecast as well

 

One of the tougher ones I can remember in recent memory that's for sure.

[JetsPens87]

In order to crack the top 10 it would have to rival/outweigh this...

 

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/snow/nesis/19580214-19580217-6.25.jpg

 

But I really shouldn't derail this thread, don't want people t get confused what i'm posting about here. To get back to tomorrow, one of my greatest mentors always taught me to itemize your pros and cons and go from there. So without further ado...

 

Pros

1. Mid level features- the maturing 850 mb low is in a nice spot for snows in the tri state area, the 700 mb low also closes off just in time that we see banding across the region

2. HP to the north though weak should assure a source of cold air drain that this storm can tap and help wet bulb areas

3. The kicker should and will prevent an inland, coastal hugger solution and with the transient western ridge (thank you shortening wavelengths), right now it is bearing down behind the vort pushing it south helping it dig towards the SE

4. A strong digging vort should tap into some gulf moisture so let's see if we can get some enhancement off the gulf  stream as this comes NEwrd

 

Cons

1. The glaring one is progressiveness right on the heels of our major coastal yesterday where there is little room for this vort to pump heights ahead of it, classically you'd like to see when the vort is over the SE a 500mb ridge axis aimed anywhere from NJ/ME (this can vary depending on the situation and cold air available as to where the best axis would ne required)

2. The kicker though listed on the pros, also helps to assure this thing moves its butt along

3. The back to back hurricane syndrome, just like in the tropics, how much energy and space does this system have to work with?

4. The 700 mb low, while developing, certainly could do us well to mature faster

5. A miller B always screws someone lol, and there will most likely be a jump in the best dynamics, exacly how quickly/spaced this is is yet uncertain

[jjvesnow]

I know its WAYYY beyond its range, but fun to watch trends.  RAP at 18 hours.

 

[REDMK6GLI]

In order to crack the top 10 it would have to rival/outweigh this...

 

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/snow/nesis/19580214-19580217-6.25.jpg

its close but goes to show you how solid the top 10 have on the NESIS chart

[SnoSki14]

its close but goes to show you how solid the top 10 have on the NESIS chart

I think it'll crack the top 10 just because of how widespread it was. It was almost on par with 1993 with how many people it affected. 

[+SNfreak21]

18z GEFS is 0.25 to 0.50 qpf area wide, 0.50+ W/C LI, 0.75+ E LI

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

18z GEFS is 0.25 to 0.50 qpf area wide, 0.50+ W/C LI, 0.75+ E LI

Keep it trending west lol

[jamesny]

Another 30-50 miles and we could be dealing with another 6"+ storm this winter.

[beez]

18z GEFS is 0.25 to 0.50 qpf area wide, 0.50+ W/C LI, 0.75+ E LI

it looks like alot of that qpf would be rain at least in eastern nj. of course the gfs could be a bit too warm

[scooter13]

18z GEFS is 0.25 to 0.50 qpf area wide, 0.50+ W/C LI, 0.75+ E LI

 

Would that be all snow, what does it say verbatum for LI?

[Franklin0529]

Another 30-50 miles west an coastal nj gets 6" from what it looks like on gfs

[Franklin0529]

How are the euros?

[EasternLI]

This is from the 18z gfs.....I approve of this image

[JetsPens87]

VERY useful link for explaining what I was talking about with precip in relation to mid/upper features.

 

http://speedy.meteor.wisc.edu/~swetzel/winter/steps.html#lows

[+SNfreak21]

ENSEMBLES AGREE WITH OP

[Dan76]

 

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

 

This one's going to crank offshore

[snowblind]

Looks like temps are marginal.. most likely half of that is rain.

[SnoSki14]

Looks like temps are marginal.. most likely half of that is rain.

Definitely not unless it's extremely light. 850s are below zero and the surface temps drop as soon as intensity increases due to evaporative cooling. 

[WE GOT HIM]

Nice little spread to the west too

[JetsPens87]

<sup>Using 850mb Features

If the 850mb low is:
______(A) miles ______( of the 2840m 1000-700mb thickness contour (approximately 0 deg C at 850), then heavy snow will fall ______© and the band will be ______(D) miles wide.</sup>

 

^{ABCD50N or S90 miles N of 0 deg C at 850150150Nalong the track of the low15050-150N100-200 miles N of 0 deg C at 85015050-150N50-75 miles N of 0 deg C at 8500-75}

 

 

 

^{Looking at the 0c 850 line, id estimate the 850mb low is about 50 miles S(technically e but we can use N/S to mean cold/warm side) of the line, therefore heaviest snow should fall in a 150 mile wide "band" (were not talking meso bands here) from about where I said TTN N into NW NJ then wrapping (note the contour of the 850 line and follow it along) into SNY and SNE. I am NOT saying this is what will happen however this method is VERY useful going forward in determining where exactly the precip should be according to the mid level features. QPF is one of the toughest things for models to handle believe it or not, and using your own judgment according to mid/upper level features will yield you to the promised lands.}

 

^{BTW apologies for how that table pasted here, if you click the link you can view this table to get an idea on how this method is performed. Again this is VERY useful information and this is how meteorology not modelology is performed.}

 

^{http://speedy.meteor.wisc.edu/~swetzel/winter/steps.html#lows}

 

[JetsPens87]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_024_925_temp_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=925_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

 

 

Warm in the lower mid levels. Don't know how deep that layer actually is. Rates can overcome that MUCH easier then a warm layer nested (like yesterday) around 800mb.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_024_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

 

Especially when the entire column is that shallow.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_024_850_700_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_700_thick&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

 

The mid levels indicate there is really no massive warm layer nested there. At 1540dm from 850-700 all precip types are possible, and this to me looks closer to 1525 (subfreezing). Therefore that leaves me with seeing the only real warmth at around 925-900mb which will quickly dynamically cool unlike the more upper mid levels.

[weatherlogix]

depending upon where the max snow growth region is, there could be really good ratio with this storm from hours 27-33 (per 18Z GFS). Temps from 650-800MB's are between -10C and -17C....just throwing a log on the fire.

 

If anyone has the bufkit, can they tell me if those temps correspond to the best growth region??? much appreciated

[snowblind]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_024_925_temp_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=925_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

 

 

Warm in the lower mid levels. Don't know how deep that layer actually is. Rates can overcome that MUCH easier then a warm layer nested (like yesterday) around 800mb.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_024_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

 

Especially when the entire column is that shallow.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_024_850_700_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_700_thick&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

 

The mid levels indicate there is really no massive warm layer nested there. At 1540dm from 850-700 all precip types are possible, and this to me looks closer to 1525 (subfreezing). Therefore that leaves me with seeing the only real warmth at around 925-900mb which will quickly dynamically cool unlike the more upper mid levels.

Thanks my mistake. Eyes still crossed from last storm.