ag3 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 SV has 6-8" for the Boston area and 4-6" from SW CT up through Central MA. Foot plus for northern Maine and close to 30" for parts of Nova Scotia. SV maps are terrible to use for snow. They overestimate the ocean influence for NYC and LI almost all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The clown maps in general are terrible-look at soundings. 99% of the time I look at soundings and disregard those maps. That's what gave me the first idea of the torching that would happen at 900mb that shafted some people. SV clown maps have a pathetic bias towards the coast and should never be used. Soundings show NYC starting at 32.8 degrees and then dropping to 21 degrees by the end of the event. Not to mention 850s are -8 degrees and thicknesses in the low 530s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 SV clown maps have a pathetic bias towards the coast and should never be used. Soundings show NYC starting at 32.8 degrees and then dropping to 21 degrees by the end of the event. Not to mention 850s are -8 degrees and thicknesses in the low 530s. So what are you suggesting in terms of the maps? too high? too low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 So what are you suggesting in terms of the maps? too high? too low? Too low probably. SV maps have a tendency of assuming that LI doesn't actually exist as a landmass and is some Atlantis like feature just slightly below sea level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 We have trended nw all year...y stop now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Would a trend NW move the dryslot accordingly or would the dynamics involved that would allow for the shift result in a loss/reduction of the dryslot idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What the short term models showing for Monmouth county coastal? Looks like there is some heavy bands setting up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 We have trended nw all year...y stop now lol No joke I have no idea where I'm gonna put it if it snows.. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What the short term models showing for Monmouth county coastal? Looks like there is some heavy bands setting up there Non show that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looks like SREFS shifting a bit further west with the .25 and .50 lines, looks interesting for central and eastern LI and really close at the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 12z JMA gets the 0.25"+ contour back to the DE river. 0.25-0.50" for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looks like SREFS shifting a bit further west with the .25 and .50 lines, looks interesting for central and eastern LI and really close at the city. how close are the .50 line in relation to the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 15z SREF's show a "dry slot" from NE NJ into NYC with 0.25"+ for NW sections and 0.25"+ for most of LI and less in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 how close are the .50 line in relation to the city? The 0.50" contour is out be the Hamptons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This is a classic case of the best dynamics jumping over the area. I've seen it a hundred times. Doesn't mean the area sees nothing but PA and LI will get a lot more than NE NJ and NYC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Nam Has some improvements already SE and SW ridges both a little more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 15z SREF members have large spread to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 15z SREF's show a "dry slot" from NE NJ into NYC with 0.25"+ for NW sections and 0.25"+ for most of LI and less in between. Very annoying dry slot but hopefully things shift a bit further west as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 15z SREF members have large spread to the west. I think this is projected to go negative like the last storm. The result was the further west models ended up being correct despite everyone thinking it would be further east, so a storm further west would not be surprising. I still would go 1-3/2-4" around the city but there's potential for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think this is projected to go negative like the last storm. The result was the further west models ended up being correct despite everyone thinking it would be further east, so a storm further west would not be surprising. I still would go 1-3/2-4" around the city but there's potential for more. Yea its possible the problem is the trough is just a little to far east when it tries to go negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think this is projected to go negative like the last storm. The result was the further west models ended up being correct despite everyone thinking it would be further east, so a storm further west would not be surprising. I still would go 1-3/2-4" around the city but there's potential for more. Sc's storm wound up in tn and our amazing ccb... Well we all know what happened there. Not saying it's going to happen as no situation is the same but when it comes to modelology... They have been to far se all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This run should deff tick west though looks like its trying to phase an hour or 2 earlier now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This run should deff tick west though looks like its trying to phase a hour or 2 earlier now The NAM was by far the most east model at 12z so it's bound to tick west somewhat. NW has been the trend this winter for sure so we'll see what happens. Just anything to get rid of the QPF hole it was showing, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The NAM was by far the most east model at 12z so it's bound to tick west somewhat. NW has been the trend this winter for sure so we'll see what happens. Just anything to get rid of the QPF hole it was showing, lol. haha yes - it looks like it is have trouble placing the slp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 there are a few 15z SREF members actually that have NYC/LI and N/C NJ under a damn solid CCB band for a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 there are a few 15z SREF members actually that have NYC/LI and N/C NJ under a damn solid CCB band for a time There seemed to be a west spread on the SREF members, so there might still be time for more shifting west. I don't think NYC gets into the really heavy stuff but maybe the Twin Forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Well it ticked west but the precip shield is still ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This is a classic case of the best dynamics jumping over the area. I've seen it a hundred times. Doesn't mean the area sees nothing but PA and LI will get a lot more than NE NJ and NYC proper. one hundred percent agree with this - not what people want to hear but in these situations much of nj/nyc/ and often times philly get jumped with these miller b's --- I think this is a 1-3 for much of the area with maybe 2-4 out eastern end of LI (much more for our friends in new england) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 At least the dry slot moved east to over LI, west of the city a solid 2-4" for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 there are a few 15z SREF members actually that have NYC/LI and N/C NJ under a damn solid CCB band for a time After yesterday I never want to hear ccb or trowal again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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