jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Dumb question...what is MC? Monmouth County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Ukie crushes SNE , some folks up there will be happy It's probably a great storm for SE MA, probably 12" in some places. They got little to nothing yesterday, so this would be a good make-up storm for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 But the GFS can underestimate confluence and it was too amped with the clipper last weekend before backing off. Would like to see how Euro handles confluence behind the 50/50 shortly. I am probably 2-4 right now with the potential to bump up if track is closer. I agree with you. If the Euro comes in better, I'd go 2-5", 5 being much of Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 the euro is stronger through 18 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Trough is going negative at hour 24 on the Euro. Looks stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 But the GFS can underestimate confluence and it was too amped with the clipper last weekend before backing off. Would like to see how Euro handles confluence behind the 50/50 shortly. I am probably 2-4 right now with the potential to bump up if track is closer. The confluence isn't as strong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This run got wetter for our are. It's going to crush SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 0.25" line in about the same spot as the SREF mean..just east of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This run came west but not enough for NYC. Light snowfall on this run for the area. This run also bombed the low a little earlier. If we can get the low to bomb out even further, we will be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This is not an atmospheric setup that delivers us steady or heavy snow..instead we'll be within a transition zone from an area of weak to moderate lift. The stronger lift and frontogenic banding development will be occurring to our northeast as the mid level centers close off..and so what we'll be getting as liquid precipitation is the lift which is quickly transferring to that area. I wouldn't expect more than 1-3" especially near the coast where BL temps are a little warm. But I suppose someone could get amounts on the high end of that if a band sets up early and hangs out until the best forcing moves northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This run came west but not enough for NYC. Light snowfall on this run for the area. This run also bombed the low a little earlier. If we can get the low to bomb out even further, we will be in business. Was hoping to see it better based on what I was reading. There's still a real possibility we are in a snow hole between the initial lift west of us and the lift over the ocean for the coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 WOW The CAPE gets crushed 1.5 850`s Minus 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Was hoping to see it better based on what I was reading. There's still a real possibility we are in a snow hole between the initial lift west of us and the lift over the ocean for the coastal storm. That's the risk of miller b storms/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Was hoping to see it better based on what I was reading. There's still a real possibility we are in a snow hole between the initial lift west of us and the lift over the ocean for the coastal storm. GGEM evolution looks interesting but very boom or bust. Not high confidence right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Euro snow maps on SV spit out 1-2" area wide. People are going to wake up tomorrow morning and think the radar looks great only to see it fall apart and shift to the coastal. The high res NAM showed this well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Euro snow maps on SV spit out 1-2" area wide. People are going to wake up tomorrow morning and think the radar looks great only to see it fall apart and shift to the coastal. The high res NAM showed this well. Still have time for adjustments. This is really close to something bigger if we can get the low to bomb out a little quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 WOW The CAPE gets crushed 1.5 850`s Minus 8 A lot of what the immediate cape gets looks to be a mixed bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Still have time for adjustments. This is really close to something bigger if we can get the low to bomb out a little quicker. Maybe for the immediate coastal sections and Long Island. I'm headed to DC anyway, hoping to cash in on some of the WAA snows down that way, although the Euro has the best lift staying to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Euro snow maps on SV spit out 1-2" area wide. People are going to wake up tomorrow morning and think the radar looks great only to see it fall apart and shift to the coastal. The high res NAM showed this well. Euro shows .20" for NYC; Double of last night's run. NYC and east will jackpot with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Still have time for adjustments. This is really close to something bigger if we can get the low to bomb out a little quicker. The low bombing out quicker can actually hurt us if the bombing out takes place too far east. It will kill any snow from the initial overrunning wave and we are left in a huge precip shadow. It's a problem central PA frequently has when storms redevelop too far east for them. The upper air lows have to be NW enough for snow to break out here by deformation, if they are more suppressed we will get very little. And part of what we get may be lost to above freezing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 A lot of what the immediate cape gets looks to be a mixed bag. Hour 36 .7 falls 850`s minus 3 surface 33- 34 Hour 42 .8 falls 850`s minus 8 surface 31 . LOSE the inital hour or 2 there , then they wet bombed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Think while the second round underperformed last night. This one could over perform slightly. Euro definitely ticked up and a bit more explosive just as it leaves our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 700mb low closed off sooner on 12z Euro than 0z.. And is further north, inside the 40/70 BM. Similar to the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Hour 36 .7 falls 850`s minus 3 surface 33- 34 Hour 42 .8 falls 850`s minus 8 surface 31 . LOSE the inital hour or 2 there , then they wet bombed . What about the other layers because the clown maps are less than impressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 SV has 6-8" for the Boston area and 4-6" from SW CT up through Central MA. Foot plus for northern Maine and close to 30" for parts of Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What about the other layers because the clown maps are less than impressive? I have to look at the 925 s . WB goof maps have 12 - 14 there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 SV has 6-8" for the Boston area and 4-6" from SW CT up through Central MA. Foot plus for northern Maine and close to 30" for parts of Nova Scotia. How does the LHV fair? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 How does the LHV fair? 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What about the other layers because the clown maps are less than impressive? The clown maps in general are terrible-look at soundings. 99% of the time I look at soundings and disregard those maps. That's what gave me the first idea of the torching that would happen at 900mb that shafted some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 4-6" and that is according to the EURO correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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