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Central PA and the fringes - Feb. 2014 Part V


JamieOber

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I agree with Neffsville. From here on out, any posts that just says "slamming" without any reference to what that means (pasnownut did a good job) then it's going to be deleted. Try to give some idea of visibilities, etc. Also, try not to post obs every five minutes. If you ignore this or tell people to calm down, you will be five posted or banned. Sorry, but have to get this under control. The board load can't take a bunch of repetitive posts. Thanks, everyone. We've all done well leading up to it, let's not lose our heads.

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Flake size is really bad here. Looks like the forcing is going to pass to our east as well.

 

Well... obviously the best stuff is gonna stay to our south and east!!  What'd you expect  :lmao:

 

But if you look at CTP's radar the good returns are slowly creeping NW.  Snow has picked up a bit in State College since I woke up 30 minutes ago and we have about 1", everything looking on track for 3-6" here imo.

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8:00 measurement now up to 4" just north of Enola... 1" increase in an hour... when i went out around 7 it was nearly 3 inches of the drier finer snow but this last inch is now bigger and wetter flakes... visibility maybe 1/4 mile... temp 24 degrees

Not sure if you've had a chance to look at any radar or hrrr but do you think MDT can get into a deform band later on?

SN+ here, have to be approaching 5".

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Interesting portion of the latest AFD for true central. 

 

CONSIDERED INCLUDING SEVERAL MORE COUNTIES IN THE WARNING...
SPECIFICALLY SULLIVAN...SRN LYCOMING...SRN CENTRE AND BLAIR...WHERE
STORM TOTAL GRIDS EXCEED 6 INCHES. HOWEVER...SINCE WE EXPECT THIS
AMOUNT OF SNOW TO OCCUR OVER AN 18 HOUR PERIOD...IT FALLS IN BETWEEN
OUR LONG-ESTABLISHED 12 AND 24 HOUR HEAVY SNOW /WARNING/ CRITERIA OF
6 INCHES/12 HOURS AND 8 INCHES/24 HOURS. HIGHLIGHTED THE SEVERAL
INCH RANGE OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED WITHIN THE BODY OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TEXT...AND MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 8
INCHES JUST TO THE EAST OF THE I-99...RT 220 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. LATER SHIFTS COULD CERTAINLY UPGRADE THESE CENTRAL
RIDGE/VALLEY AND SUSQ WEST BRANCH ZONES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
BASED ON UPCOMING HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE...OR EVIDENCE OF FGEN/CSI
HEAVY SNOW BANDS DEVELOPING AND ADVECTING INTO THIS AREA.

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Figure this is worth posting as well

 

AS NOTED EARLIER...THERE ARE TWO MAIN ISSUES TO FOCUS ON WHICH
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE CURRENT FORECAST OF STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL...AND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS FOR THIS STORM.

THE FIRST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP RATES TO DROP OFF DRASTICALLY
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS TO THE EAST OF A
KRSP TO KTHV AND KMUI LINE...WITH EVEN SOME SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS
THE FAR SE PART OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE STORM
FORECAST TOTAL SNOW MAY HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BY 14Z...SHOULD THIS
NOT OCCUR...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DURATION OF THIS STORM...SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD EASILY BE OVER
15 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

THE SECOND CONCERN - IS THE POTENTIAL FOR QUASI STNRY MDT-HVY SNOW
BANDS FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL SUSQ VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MTNS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...POSSIBLY PROMPTING US TO EXPAND THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS
SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE NW TO INCLUDE THE ALTOONA...STATE
COLLEGE...LOCK HAVEN AND WILLIAMSPORT AREAS.

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Not sure if I had a temperature spike or if I misread it but had a reading of 24 degrees @ 7:40 and @ 8:00 it was at 27. I am now @ 27.5 degrees with sporadic gusty winds. Snow measurement at this point is 11 inches. Snow measurements will be averages at this point forward because we are getting some minor drifting.

 

Edit: Located @ Hanover Pa.

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Not sure if you've had a chance to look at any radar or hrrr but do you think MDT can get into a deform band later on?

SN+ here, have to be approaching 5".

HRRR and RAP have had good banding develop in the area... just a matter of where it does set up but certainly possible... current band over 81/turnpike is 2"/hr rates... I am at 5" here as of 8:30

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Not sure if I had a temperature spike or if I misread it but had a reading of 24 degrees @ 7:40 and @ 8:00 it was at 27. I am now @ 27.5 degrees with sporadic gusty winds. Snow measurement at this point is 11 inches. Snow measurements will be averages at this point forward because we are getting some minor drifting.

Location?

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8:30AM Observation:

 

Moderate snow continues in Tamaqua. The true heavy precipitation has yet to reach us. For some reason it's having a tough time getting into the area as locations east (Lehigh Valley) and west (Harrisburg) per reports, are.

 

Temp: 30 degrees

Conditions: Moderate snow

Accumulation: 2.3 inches

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