Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,598
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PublicWorks143
    Newest Member
    PublicWorks143
    Joined

Central PA and the fringes - Feb. 2014 Part V


JamieOber

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I believe CTP mentioned that better bands were to spread into the area between 09-12Z due to the frontogentic lift comes into our area. Also between 12Z - 0Z we would have a 3-5 STD DEV above normal eastern anomaly that will be feeding into this frontogentic lift. So I'm guessing we will see much better bands around 6-7ish

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Question. I'm looking at obs from around the dc area, and they are all reporting light snow and 1.5 mile vis.

Why, with those heavy returns, nothing heavier?

 

Trust me, it's beyond thumping in DC right now. I can confirm with multiple reports around DC and thundersnow being reported south of DC in NoVa around Arlington. 

 

Radar in MD is stunning and starting to break the wall at Pa line. It's going to rip something furious probably by 4am. In fact, HRRR and Euro say same exact thing on timing. Lock and step. Just awesome. Idk how I'm still up  :lmao:

 

2.2"  18 degrees   Millersville, Pa

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Zak, Euro and HRRR show absolute rippage MD style later on in the morning. Then Euro has beautiful 500mb with strong PVA on east side of the trough by the afternoon about to drop the hammer on PA with Deform comma head goodness.  :drunk:

 

It is starting to get good. Just went for first shoveling of the morning. Got about 2.5" now and rates finally up to about .5"/hr and increasing. Winds also to about 15mph blowing around this light fluff. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As of 220 AM

 

 

 

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM AIMED AT CENTRAL AND ERN PA FOR
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK SO FAR.

NRN...LEADING EDGE OF THE STEADY LIGHT IS NEAR A KFIG...TO KIPT AND
KAVP LINE AT 07Z...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE GRADUALLY NORTH AND
WEST THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

REPORTS OF OVER 1 INCH RECEIVED A SHORT TIME AGO FROM OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...AND MUCH HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES OVER 30DBZ ARE
CURRENTLY SPREADING NORTH INTO THAT SAME AREA. EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES
NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TO INCREASE TO 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH THE PRIME MORNING RUSH HOURS...
AS THE NOSE OF A 60-70 KT ESE 850 MB JET LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT.

STEADY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL FALL FURTHER TO THE NW ACROSS
THE MID SUSQ VALLEY AND CENTRAL MTNS.

TWO MAIN ISSUES TO FOCUS ON AT THIS POINT...

THE FIRST BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP RATES TO DROP OFF
DRASTICALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS TO
THE EAST OF A KRSP TO KTHV AND KMUI LINE...WITH EVEN SOME SLEET
MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR SE PART OF THE CWA.


THE SECOND CONCERN - IS THE POTENTIAL FOR QUASI STNRY MDT-HVY SNOW
BANDS FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL SUSQ VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
MTNS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...POSSIBLY PROMPTING US TO EXPAND THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS
SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE NW TO INCLUDE THE ALTOONA...STATE
COLLEGE...LOCK HAVEN AND WILLIAMSPORT AREAS.


MODEL QPF IS UNUSUALLY LOW WITHIN THESE RIBBONS OF ENHANCED
925-700MB FGEN WITH ANTICIPATED CSI BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW BRINGING
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. NAM BUFKIT TIME-SECTION OF
UVVEL AND FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH THERMAL RIBBON...SHOWS
STRONG...DEEP ASCENT AND AN EXCELLENT CROSS-HAIR SIGNATURE /ALBEIT
RATHER HIGH UP IN THE THICK LAYERED CLOUD - BETWEEN 10-14 KFT
AGL.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING/WINT WX ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION FOR NOW...AND WILL DIGEST THE 03Z-06Z OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS TO SEE IF WE NEED ANY NWWD EXPANSION.

TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL SLOWLY
WARM TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S LATE TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THE NEAR TERM WITH MINOR MODIFICATIONS
FOLLOWS...
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Radar is starting to improve for the AOO-UNV crew.

 

Snows picking up some here, the steadier and heavier stuff is starting to make a press into central after the front edge kind of sat around for a bit. Susquehanna Valley is about to be overrun with significant snowfall rates of 1-2"/hour.  Patience is going to be a virtue in our neck of the woods, but the trends continue to look quite good on the near term models. RAP has been steady the last few runs getting 6-8 in Altoona and State College and 4-6" all the way to Clearfield (with remaining backlash to go beyond 18hrs),  HRRR had 4-6 for AOO/UNV and about 2-3 for Clearfield out to 15 hours with more to go. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So LWX just did this:

 

 

. Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 3 PM EST this

afternoon...
... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to
1 am EST Friday...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has
issued a Winter Weather Advisory for snow... which is in effect
from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 am EST Friday.

* Precipitation type... heavy snow and sleet.

* Accumulations... 6 to 10 inches. Locally higher amounts around 12
inches are possible... especially near Interstate 95.

* Timing... heavy snow will mix with sleet early this morning.
Precipitation will change to a mixture of snow... sleet and rain
after 7 am and precipitation rates will become light. Another
round of moderate to heavy snow will develop late this afternoon
into tonight.

* Temperatures... slowly rising into the lower to middle 30s.

* Winds... becoming north 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph

* impacts... roads will be snow and sleet covered and slippery.
Travel will be dangerous. Heavy wet snow coupled with gusty
winds could lead to some power outages.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe winter weather conditions are occurring. Significant
amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only
travel in an emergency. If you must travel... keep an extra
flashlight... food... and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.

 

 

#twostorms

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just woke up. First observations, thoughts, and speculations. We have one inch of new snow on the ground with what is still seemingly light snow falling. I hit the sack about 11:00 or so last night so I really don't know when the first flakes started falling here. As the shield of precipitation advances northward, it almost appears as if the heavier stuff (20+dbz) doesn't want to get too far into PA. I'm wondering if that is going to be an issue as the day unfolds, or if it finally does advance more northward. That concern comes from some of the models showing, yesterday, that PA would be in somewhat of a "lull zone" while areas to the south, and then northeast, see heavier snow and larger accumulations. Time will tell on that.

 

For now, the placement of the precipitation looks just like modeled, but, for some of us PA folks, the rates aren't up yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...