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Central PA and the fringes - Feb. 2014 Part V


JamieOber

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Wow...seems the gradient is ending up reversed to what it initially looked like.  More north, less south. 

 

Here in Carlisle with a steady, light snow I'm eyeballing just shy of 2.0" which seems to be matching up with other MDT locals.  Flake size right now is just becoming a tiny bit larger.  Temp holding steady at 31.0.  Zak, maybe the Monday night storm hits you??  Current radar looks like you might be getting close to moderate down there.

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Actually seems like it's picking up. On mobile so can't see radar real good, but it seems we could have this light snow for awhile, anyone want to comment who can see it better?

Hey Sauss...

 

At 10:30 radar very good for you and me.  You have some 25 dbz's heading your way.  Here still light, but trying to become moderate.

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A quick overview of the GFS for all of next week shows a noticeably colder look than had been shown the past couple of days.  We still have a bit of a warmup, but it looks shortened to just 2 or maybe 3 days tops near the end of next week.  Then, what was going to be more of a rain event over next weekend suddenly looks like cold air damming event with snow to perhaps freezing rain, ending as tiny bit of plain rain.  Then the warm-up ends and the trough returns east.

 

A bit out in LOL land around 300hrs the model spins up a phased coastal low and dumps 6-12" on all of us while it remains cold.  Winter does not want to end.

 

For any of you who still follow Larry Cosgrove, he was pretty adamant in his newsletter last Saturday that all blocking was breaking down around the globe and that after this upcoming week winter was going to wind down rapidly and end here in the east.  Wonder what his letter will say tonight??  Stay tuned...

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SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1303Z SAT FEB 15 2014

12Z MODEL PRODUCTION CYCLE WILL DEFINITELY BE DELAYED.. DUE TO THE MAJOR CIRCUIT AND INTERNET SERVICE ISSUE AT THE TOC/GATEWAY.. WE ARE DELAYING THE START OF THE 12Z CYCLE RUNS.. INCLUDING THE NAM AND RAP UPDATES.. DUE TO THE ON-GOING ISSUES AT THE GATEWAY/TOC. THEIR VENDOR/CONTRACTOR SAYS THEIR WORK COULD TAKE UP TO 2-3 HRS.. BUT THEY ARE ON-SITE AND WORKING ON THE ISSUE. WE WILL UPDATE YOU AS SOON AS WE KNOW HOW LONG THE DELAY OF THE 12Z MODELS WILL BE... MOST OF THE DATA NEEDED TO RUN THE MODELS IS NOT REACHING THE NEW WCOSS SUPER COMPUTER TO RUN THE MODELS AND WE ARE ALSO UNABLE TO SEND PRODUCTS OUT AS WELL TO AWIPS...VIA THE TOC/GATEWAY. MORE INFORMATION ONCE THIS BECOMES AVAILABLE..

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Temp here just reached 32.0.  Snow almost moderate with larger flakes.  I'm going to measure now because increasing insolation will begin to take its toll on the new accumulations.

 

Okay, just measured 2.5" new snow.  Just had a nice burst of solid moderate but it's backing off now.  I'd say accumulating snow here is winding down looking at latest radar.  Maybe 30 more minutes of snow will do it for this event.

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