Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Winds aren't staying SE guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We know Steve. But this is all part of the intricate puzzle. I hope the 00z runs are bullish with part 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I like this wind map for the overall look: http://hint.fm/wind/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I have said several times, this is an odd storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We know Steve. But this is all part of the intricate puzzle. I hope the 00z runs are bullish with part 1. I'm not really sure if models can really help us out any more with this. they may influence a decision or increase or decrease confidence in an individual's stance but with the questions we're dealing with, it's all really going to come down to a nowcasting situation and we're just going to have to watch by eye how this unfolds and develops overnight and pay extremely close attention to obs and soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 SREF mean has come east, but they were way overamped at 15Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Good stuff here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/4152-tracking-storms-201011/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Excellent front nam front ender and a bit colder and more consolidated vs 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 SREF mean has come east, but they were way overamped at 15Z. lol here we go. The last minute tick east. I wonder if convection off the southeast coast out ahead causes the low to skip a little east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 lol here we go. The last minute tick east. I wonder if convection off the southeast coast out ahead causes the low to skip a little east. Yep, I have the same concern. Funny because some SNE'ers feel the opposite haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I get stung but it's wet not white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Man this is going to be a decent run up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 All of SNE is dryslotted by about 00z on the NAM...pretty good front-ender. We'll see how round 2 shakes out...it looks promising though based on 5H compared to 18z run. I'm guessing this will have a pretty big round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That h5 vort looks to be in a nice position this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 7h Suggests this run is going to sting real nice backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I will hold with 3-6" for BTV for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Guys... there's a separate obs thread. Let's use that for obs. As for the NAM. Damn... that's a hellacious thump in in the morning/midday for SNE before the epic dry slot and changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAM is insanely wet...even for areas receiving all snow or mostly snow it drops nearly or over an inch of QPF between 7-7 tomorrow...then transition to some ZR. It also has some insane VV's...perhaps overdone but if that came close to verifying...snowfall rates of 3'' per hour a certain somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yeah but it could flash to white if things keep tickling east a nudge If you look offshore it almost hints at a double barrel system. Doesn't happen yet but it's interesting. Second part is west of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Western NE gets wrecked by the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 By 6z Friday the NAM has the 700mb low over Great Barrington and 850 low over Queens NY. Definitely favors VT/Berks/E NY for deformation snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Berks nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Northern Maine gets destroyed on the front end by the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Western NE gets wrecked by the backside.Yeah Berkshire east to the mountains of Maine just get clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That h5 low comes just a bit too far north for eastern areas but we'll get some accumulating snows in round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Low appears to be a bit E. Over ACK. 850's are rather far west with that track EDIT: saw later panels, seams to do some odd things with low placement during the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Skiing until June at the Loaf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Litchfield hills in ct, huge backend as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 close to 1.5- 2" of liquid and max areas see 2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Nice front ender for some of us. Outstanding backlash for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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