JC-CT Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We'll start as ice but as soon as it gets hvy it goes to snow.When you get an ULL to go south of you ..esp one this strong..it always plays havoc with models and we typically get some very good surprises. I think even to the SE coast in Mass they get a few inches tonightWell one thing for sure, this storm played havoc on models. A lot of powerful things happening in the atmosphere.If Roger Smith is right, we should expect another 30" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 HRRR has been bad for backend outside of western border counties of sne last couple hourly runs. It wants surface low well inland. Not sure on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We're going 2"-5" west of Rt 8 tonight and a coating to 2" elsewhere tonight. Oh man..new RAP doesn't agree... wtf? Warmth at 850 doesn't come crashing back down like previous runs. Doesn't look good for CT. I was pretty bullish for tonight until I saw that. Any ideas why it's so warm now outside of a further west track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Tons of elevated CAPE for sure. To me, the second part looks like a NW NJ nctrl NJ to POU and up by ALB special. Probably into wrn CT too. I'm sort of bummed that I'll miss out. I think we get a period of convection and maybe some thunder graupel but sort of outside looking in on that band as it pivots through the Hudson River Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Oh man..new RAP doesn't agree... wtf? Warmth at 850 doesn't come crashing back down like previous runs. Doesn't look good for CT. I was pretty bullish for tonight until I saw that. Any ideas why it's so warm now outside of a further west track? Where have you been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RAP 21z says north and west of bos pvd line has a shot at snow tomorrow am. Not much. More to west, like every other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Oh man..new RAP doesn't agree... wtf? Warmth at 850 doesn't come crashing back down like previous runs. Doesn't look good for CT. I was pretty bullish for tonight until I saw that. Any ideas why it's so warm now outside of a further west track? Just a mild setup. Hard to crash temperatures with the 850/700 lows going overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The latest RAP just absolutely destroys the Albany area later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 21Z HRRR is basically a little further east. Heavy snow in Hartford around 3am south to the coast and north from there, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Doesn't end up all that different, Kevin sees a couple inches. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The latest RAP just absolutely destroys the Albany area later tonight. acsnw_t3sfc_f18.png its already busted in central MD where they are getting raped. rap shows them with 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 its already busted in central MD where they are getting raped. rap shows them with 1-2".E or W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 E or W just N and W of Baltimore. it could even be ripping there but im not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just a complete and utter poundings into submission throughout NE right now. Interior maine gettin crush job State college in some weenie band just getting buried waaay out there and now that band is filling into to the se connecting w the dc bmi stuff. Parts of va/md getting snowflakes the size of baseballs as radar is lit up like xmas tree down there. Also DE/S NJ and adj. coastal waters seeing nice convection . Pinwheeling around as it slides ne Wish i was below freezing but winds they are gusty here...waitin for low to make its move Ne from Delmarva coast toward BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 There seems to be a disconnect, as models suggested this evolution... Not sure why many are surprised its pouring snow in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 its already busted in central MD where they are getting raped. rap shows them with 1-2". You guys in CT will get hit with it, could be decent extra QPF, but the trick will be the precipitation type. Even the RAP (which you pointed out is already low with precip) has a pocket of 0.25"< melted in one hour in CT. That's some heavy precipitation, whatever it is that falls. You guys could have some like thunder graupel or sleet or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 There seems to be a disconnect, as models suggested this evolution... Not sure why many are surprised its pouring snow in DC I am excited at the amounts down there The MA corridor crushed us on front end and now on back end they just dominated this storm in areas down there. Crushing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Stuff over DC Balt is what will be over western areas (snow). Echos flying in nw off the atlantic is what eastern areas get, its all warm and at best a mix. That southern hook is really the only hope ORH east and it looks really weak by the time it reaches us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 just N and W of Baltimore. it could even be ripping there but im not sure.Lol I meant which way did it bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just a complete and utter poundings into submission throughout NE right now. Interior maine gettin crush job State college in some weenie band just getting buried waaay out there and now that band is filling into to the se connecting w the dc bmi stuff. Parts of va/md getting snowflakes the size of baseballs as radar is lit up like xmas tree down there. Also DE/S NJ and adj. coastal waters seeing nice convection . Pinwheeling around as it slides ne Wish i was below freezing but winds they are gusty here...waitin for low to make its move Ne from Delmarva coast toward BOS Not only interior Maine getting crushed right now. I just had one of the worst commutes home I have ever experienced. And my route was nearly all coastal. I-95 & I-295, RT. 1. Took 3 hours to go from Portland to the south end of Bath. Normally a 50 minute commute. Visibility at times was ~50 feet with 3+" an hour snowfall. It's still ripping out there. Winds gusting to 30 mph. 26°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 While we get a good thump of moisture here from the convection over S NJ you can already see the best deformation setting up west from BWI-ILG-ABE. I think that will setup even west of where models are pegging the heaviest QPF. The initial thump of moisture we get from convection will most certainly not be snow. Sleet, probably, ZR maybe... but the combination of cooling on the backside of the low and the heaviest precip as the comma head pivots will probably just clip the Berkshires and stay west of us. I doubt more than 1"-2" on the backside as it weakens and moves east post-pivot. I would not be surprised if someone in E NY puts up a 15" or 18" total additional tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Stuff over DC Balt is what will be over western areas (snow). Echos flying in nw off the atlantic is what eastern areas get, its all warm and at best a mix. That southern hook is really the only hope ORH east and it looks really weak by the time it reaches us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Lol I meant which way did it bust my bad. well it wasnt showing much for central MD..and returns have really blossomed there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 my last post was deleted but HRRR 22z is coming in Southeast of this run with accumulating snow to end to the east coast. Heavier amounts the further west you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The latest RAP just absolutely destroys the Albany area later tonight. acsnw_t3sfc_f18.png If only that could begin that eastern turn a few miles sooner. While we get a good thump of moisture here from the convection over S NJ you can already see the best deformation setting up west from BWI-ILG-ABE. I think that will setup even west of where models are pegging the heaviest QPF. The initial thump of moisture we get from convection will most certainly not be snow. Sleet, probably, ZR maybe... but the combination of cooling on the backside of the low and the heaviest precip as the comma head pivots will probably just clip the Berkshires and stay west of us. I doubt more than 1"-2" on the backside as it weakens and moves east post-pivot. I would not be surprised if someone in E NY puts up a 15" or 18" total additional tonight. Agree on both that placement (perhaps further west) and that amount wherever it does go. Simply impressive. Temp continuing to tick upward here in Shelburne. 26.1/25, needles, needles, needles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 my last post was deleted but HRRR 22z is coming in Southeast of this run with accumulating snow to end to the east coast. Heavier amounts the further west you go. 23z RAP and 22z HRRR very similar in handling things. Not bad for some holding out hope for an inch or two in the east and a little more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 While we get a good thump of moisture here from the convection over S NJ you can already see the best deformation setting up west from BWI-ILG-ABE. I think that will setup even west of where models are pegging the heaviest QPF. The initial thump of moisture we get from convection will most certainly not be snow. Sleet, probably, ZR maybe... but the combination of cooling on the backside of the low and the heaviest precip as the comma head pivots will probably just clip the Berkshires and stay west of us. I doubt more than 1"-2" on the backside as it weakens and moves east post-pivot. I would not be surprised if someone in E NY puts up a 15" or 18" total additional tonight. wow, i can see that happening. ull is getting deep. congrats ALB, they've been screwed in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 If only that could begin that eastern turn a few miles sooner. Agree on both that placement (perhaps further west) and that amount wherever it does go. Simply impressive. Temp continuing to tick upward here in Shelburne. 26.1/25, needles, needles, needles. I'll be interested to see if you stay snow or flip over. I'm really hoping that Mount Snow is able to stay all snow and they don't get some ugly glaze of ZR in the middle of the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 my last post was deleted but HRRR 22z is coming in Southeast of this run with accumulating snow to end to the east coast. Heavier amounts the further west you go.interestingly they didn't delete your troll post about and 12/9/05. I was discussing evolution based on one model run and upper air similarities. Mets complain about reading comprehension and posts get deleted yet... Story is not done yet, another now cast. Should bbe an interesting evolution hopefully better forecast than the LI NYC SWCT stuff from this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 NWS Boston @NWSBoston Possibly. Temps still warm aloft though. MT @BostonWxCast: 23z RAP & 22z HRRR both similar & bullish with ULL. Potential 1-2" eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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