RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm guessing 3-5 here for tonight. With no thunder. 24.0/23 you will get that in an hour and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 upton actually has thunder in my forecast. Going for 3-8 add'l snows as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just guessing, I don't think it had that much for you in what I saw. I'll look when I get home. Thunder for those of us with the turbo rains tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 They'll be thunder, by thunders ow for everyone might be pushing it. I feel good about thunder Thunder(mix) very well modeled. I still think we miss out on the comma head but DXR and Litchfield County cashes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 upton actually has thunder in my forecast. Going for 3-8 add'l snows as well.I was wondering what they had. I saw the zones had a total accumulation of 12-18 in the city and coastal zones, and 18-24 over the interior zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 you will get that in an hour and a half. We'll see. Actually, we won't. Not at that hour! upton actually has thunder in my forecast. Going for 3-8 add'l snows as well. Nice. I've got 3-7" in my p/c. Would be exactly in the 12-16 range of my zfp. 24.1/23 ni Shelburne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdgraves Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Are we expecting that blob near Delmarva to end up in the Gulf of Maine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Thunder(mix) very well modeled. I still think we miss out on the comma head but DXR and Litchfield County cashes in. This is a good forecast for right now. Blend everything that's where you bang the drum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Thunder(mix) very well modeled. I still think we miss out on the comma head but DXR and Litchfield County cashes in. No love for the snow magnet of BDR??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 18z GFS totals from 7:00p.m. onward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Thunder(mix) very well modeled. I still think we miss out on the comma head but DXR and Litchfield County cashes in. Yeah I could see a lot of mini dip n/ dot hail reports. roo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yeah I could see a lot of mini dip n/ dot hail reports. roo. DC and BMore areas are reporting thundersleet transitioning to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 DC and BMore areas are reporting thundersleet transitioning to snow Yep, looks on point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What are surface temps expected to do? Models seem to be too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yep, looks on point. Fun tracking down there right now too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Going to be some real radar hallucinations for some tonight I think. Surface low does track ne for a time which might lead one to think eastern areas are pummeled by ULL. But late in the game near the islands the low gets a tug nw into the GOM, and starts to really go hammertime on the berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Soon as stuff gets hvy tonite it flips to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Soon as stuff gets hvy tonite it flips to snow I was more talking about IP/ZR vs. plain jane rain, but I think I answered my own question. Temp up 0.4F in last 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Soon as stuff gets hvy tonite it flips to snow OKX is calling for near blizzard conditions in their locale tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 We're going 2"-5" west of Rt 8 tonight and a coating to 2" elsewhere tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We're going 2"-5" west of Rt 8 tonight and a coating to 2" elsewhere tonight.How about up here Ryan? The Comma head is going to tilt toward the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 OKX is calling for near blizzard conditions in their locale tonight they are really bullish-they have an outside chance of 8-12 inches noted! High winds and heavy snows as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 OKX is almost always more bullish than BOX. Just something I've noticed, I don't know how many people check both of them as much as I do being right on the edge of the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 How about up here Ryan? The Comma head is going to tilt toward the NE. I think it's going to pivot to the west. Thinking longitude matters more than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I think it's going to pivot to the west. Thinking longitude matters more than anything else. It's all about the interaction between the so called kicked from days ago.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Long time lurker here. Upton's discussion is interesting. Is SW CT really going to get another 4-8 with the low possibility of 8-12? .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/......ANOTHER HIT OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE LOWER HUDSONVALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...NYC/LI METRO AND SOUTHWEST CTTONIGHT...A HEAVY SNOW BAND WHICH DROPPED BETWEEN 6 AND 15 INCHES ACROSSTHE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HAS PUSHEDNORTH OF THE REGION WITH DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THEREMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ANDDRIZZLE CITY/COAST...AND LIGHT WINTRY MIX INTERIOR. A FEWHUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO A TENTH OT TWO OF ICE ACCUM LIKELYINTERIOR OF THE CITY/COAST.THE NEXT CONCERN...AND PART TWO OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...WILL BE WITHAN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER LOW WHICH WILL PIVOT NE FROM THE THEMID ATLANTIC AND THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THE STRONG FORCINGAND AMPLE MOISTURE FEED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND BOMBINGSURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL ALLOWFOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THISEVENING. ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL EVEN SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMMAINTENANCE INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT...WHICH IS BEING SEEN ACROSSTHE COASTAL VIRGINIA/DC AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WARM LAYERALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...INITIALLY PRECIP WILLBE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND A WINTRY MIX INTERIORNW. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NWINTERIOR SECTIONS BY MID EVENING...AND THEN LIKEWISE TRANSITIONINGTO SNOW FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OFTHE CWA. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFT MIDNIGHT...WHEN THE MID LEVEL LOWMOVES NE OF THE REGION FOR TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS EASTERN LIAND SE CT...LIMITING ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUM.MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS BACKSIDE DEFORMATIONBANDING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TOHIGH IN A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NENJ...NYC/LI METRO AND SW CT. TRAVEL WILL ONCE AGAIN NOT BERECOMMENDED TONIGHT IN THIS AREA...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3INCHES...AND AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW LIKELYHERE. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL 8 TO 12INCHES...PARTICULARLY N&W OF NYC. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ISLIKELY AFT MIDNIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA AS WINDS BEG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 19z hrrr hits us with a northward moving line of convection around 07-09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I was more talking about IP/ZR vs. plain jane rain, but I think I answered my own question. Temp up 0.4F in last 15 minutes. We'll start as ice but as soon as it gets hvy it goes to snow.When you get an ULL to go south of you ..esp one this strong..it always plays havoc with models and we typically get some very good surprises. I think even to the SE coast in Mass they get a few inches tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 19z hrrr hits us with a northward moving line of convection around 07-09z. Nice spike in CAPE... pretty wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Tons of elevated CAPE for sure. To me, the second part looks like a NW NJ nctrl NJ to POU and up by ALB special. Probably into wrn CT too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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