Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM is way west too. Kind of a big fail by the models in tight it appears. Runs the low up over central/eastern LI and then across to about Portland. Most of the heavy stuff for round 2 is west like the NAM. By 0z has the warmth into SE VT, NH etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM is way west too. Kind of a big fail by the models in tight it appears. Runs the low up over central/eastern LI and then across to about Portland. Most of the heavy stuff for round 2 is west like the NAM. By 0z has the warmth into SE VT, NH etc. I'm just praying the SREF's have a clue... at a 24 hour forecast I'd hope these meso-scale models are honing in. There's a reason I always say our best track is right into Boston Harbor or in the vicinity of the Bay there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm just praying the SREF's have a clue... at a 24 hour forecast I'd hope these meso-scale models are honing in. There's a reason I always say our best track is right into Boston Harbor or in the vicinity of the Bay there. I'm pulling for you NW NE guys. I'll be in Pittsburg,NH for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GFS west with round 2. Rou nd one enjoy interior SNE. Round 2 for Albany. Euro FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GFS is following the westward push here at 12z...def the big backlash looks to be from about ALB up to NE Adirondacks and over to VT. I'd only expect an inch or two on the back end in SNE except maybe a bit more out in GC...Mitch's area out near NY border might catch a piece of the really good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GFS west with round 2. Rou nd one enjoy interior SNE. Round 2 for Albany. Euro FTW. So you're saying no more snow tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 So you're saying no more snow tonight? Nothing big...probably some light accumulations...maybe an inch overnight? 2 if really lucky? The good stuff is out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 So you're saying no more snow tonight? No see Will's post. Maybe an inch or two? You never know because there can be fluky bands so still need to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Nothing big...probably some light accumulations...maybe an inch overnight? 2? The good stuff is out west. I'm not sold..HRR says no to that. ULL passing to our south as this one is tend to have surprises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm not sold..HRR says no to that. ULL passing to our south as this one is tend to have surprises Well how much do you think? Just so we can clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Well how much do you think? Just so we can clarify. 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GFS has the low between ORH and BOS now, wow. They are singing from every chairlift in Vermont right now. Also great to see the ALB crowd get in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Going to have to do it all basically on the front end, Could not buy a NW trend in most of the other storms this year.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GFS is following the westward push here at 12z...def the big backlash looks to be from about ALB up to NE Adirondacks and over to VT. I'd only expect an inch or two on the back end in SNE except maybe a bit more out in GC...Mitch's area out near NY border might catch a piece of the really good stuff. Yeah, definitely wagons west with this. Maybe I can get 4-6" on the backside, but the best of it looks like it could be near ALB. 700 mb lows look like they go over or just west of Springfield, MA or so. Ideally, I need the H7 low to go over Tolland, CT or so to really get crushed here. Enjoy the front end, it should rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I think this is a really cool map showing height falls at 500 mb. Dynamic url for reference: http://climate.cod.edu/data/upper/US/contour/USdeltaz.20140213.12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Man--I'm pretty much reduced to 3-5 here for round 2 on the GFS, NAM is respectable, but the trend to meh is overwhelming. Congrats Rick and PF. 19.3/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Nothing big...probably some light accumulations...maybe an inch overnight? 2 if really lucky? The good stuff is out west. The HRRR has it come right over SNE and also has only 2 hours of rain at the end before the dryslot. Do Mets usually not go with the HRRR over the NAM and GFS at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yeah, definitely wagons west with this. Maybe I can get 4-6" on the backside, but the best of it looks like it could be near ALB. 700 mb lows look like they go over or just west of Springfield, MA or so. Ideally, I need the H7 low to go over Tolland, CT or so to really get crushed here. Enjoy the front end, it should rock! I think you'll do pretty well on the backside being on the west slope...the NW flow should enhance it too for you guys, what do you think?...either way, I think this storm has some fun for a lot of the region (save far SE areas) but not necessarily all in the same portions of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GFS has the low between ORH and BOS now, wow. They are singing from every chairlift in Vermont right now. Also great to see the ALB crowd get in on it. Yeah it's been quite a while since ALB has gotten in on any type of pivoting band (or had a storm drop more than 14" for that matter) so hopefully tonight will be fun from here up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GFS west with round 2. Rou nd one enjoy interior SNE. Round 2 for Albany. Euro FTW. But HPC was snowy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 hrrr nailed it for the front end down here, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wow is gfs west later this eve ...over e Long Island ...BL is gonna torch further west i think by mid pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Well this will work out perhaps. My daughter's school has a winter version of 'field day' with sledding, skating, snowball fight, etc. I was afraid they'd have a snow day. Based on the Albany/PF trend, school will likely be in session. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GFS has the low between ORH and BOS now, wow. They are singing from every chairlift in Vermont right now. Also great to see the ALB crowd get in on it. Wow is right takes it like N/NNE from off of Delmarva /s nj . We're gonna torch in e ma later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wow is gfs west later this eve ...over e Long Island ...BL is gonna torch further west i think by mid pm Surface isn't doing so badly either if you look at the SE push into CT/RI/MA. It's making some good progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Along with my HRRR Comment vs. the NAM and GFS - The Commahead is Forming AS WE SPEAK in Western VA! Looks like if I just went by radar that it Would come Riiiiiight towards us in ESNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 wow nice updated snow map from kokx hope box moves higher totals here!! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 7-10 split here with the best snows on the GFS. Congrats BTV. Crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wow is gfs west later this eve ...over e Long Island ...BL is gonna torch further west i think by mid pm Sometimes I wonder if the flights they make into these storms actually makes things worse. This is one of the bigger fumbles short term on track I can remember. Significant for ski areas. This is exactly what they could dream of heading into vacation weeks. Really good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 7-10 split here with the best snows on the GFS. Congrats BTV. Crushed. Powderfreak is still worried because the Korean model shows the deformation over NH....might have to check the 15z NMM too before going gung ho. In all seriousness...the Euro was the leader on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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