Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:09 PM, sbos_wx said: HRRR comes in colder then previous run @ 12z with regards to nw push of r/s line, suggests BOS is snow @ 4pm HRR nailed it so far. it had the change to rain over in SE areas. it actually stayed snow longer there than it had. let's hope it's correct on amounts in the snow areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:09 PM, sbos_wx said: HRRR comes in colder then previous run @ 12z with regards to nw push of r/s line, suggests BOS is snow @ 4pm I think we will see which way this is going very shortly. If as the heavier precip moves in the warmth outdoes dynamics up along rte 3....warm...if not pasting. Nam is so west and warm it's sketchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:08 PM, PolarVortex said: Yep. It runs the low over Taunton or boston. It's way west. Doesn't mean it's right but this early warmth has me wondering so much for those last minute eastward adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Lastest RPM is 6-12" nw of kevin nw ri to western edge of 495 up through me and ray 12-16" jackpot interior maine counties of york and cumberland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Nowcast situation for sure. NAM was ugly for coastal plain though. How does the r/s/m line look to our south compared to models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAM is very far west with the low, like ISP-BOS..lol. practically taints all of MA by 0z except the NW corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NWS Boston @NWSBoston Technical: weather balloon launch from Chatham, MA @6am reveals colder/drier air aloft, delaying changeover 2 rain. EDIT: LAST IMAGE WAS INCORRECT http://ow.ly/i/4ApHr/original Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:13 PM, JC in CT said: Nowcast situation for sure. NAM was ugly for coastal plain though. How does the r/s/m line look to our south compared to models? Yeah, amazing that the storm is here and models are still not in agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 At least it's a better front ender up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I think we can see that eastern qpf bomb right now south of the coast starting to blossom... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:14 PM, sbos_wx said: NWS Boston @NWSBoston Technical: weather balloon launch from Chatham, MA @6am reveals colder/drier air aloft, delaying changeover 2 rain. EDIT: LAST IMAGE WAS INCORRECT http://ow.ly/i/4ApHr/original Heavy stuff moving in here, still rain and 33.4 and rising. I'm actually surprised. If this doesn't flip back for at least a coating this will be one of the worst "front end" busts I can remember here. Even the NAM has the kinks at 8h that indicate it's trying to cool the column, but I'm not sure if the first few hundred feet are so shot already it doesn't matter. I'm speaking of east of the CF, but particularly RIGHT on the coast. I could see it snowing a few miles back from the water up north between here and Boston even if it doesn't "dynamically cool" It could even snow at say Otis and still be raining up through parts of coastal PYM right on the water like it does from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Pretty big difference with the surface low track on the HRRR and the RAP, HRRR tracks it over the canal or slightly west of there, And the RAP has it over ACK, That would make a difference for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:28 PM, coldfront said: Pretty big difference with the surface low track on the HRRR and the RAP, HRRR tracks it over the canal or slightly west of there, And the RAP has it over ACK, That would make a difference for someEither way it means heavy heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:28 PM, coldfront said: Pretty big difference with the surface low track on the HRRR and the RAP, HRRR tracks it over the canal or slightly west of there, And the RAP has it over ACK, That would make a difference for some Latest two RAP's I am looking at track it over the cape, confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:31 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Either way it means heavy heavy snow But if the surface low tracks further east, So does the ULL when it comes thru, So folks east could get into more of the backside snow Just check the obs south, They are getting ripped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:32 PM, sbos_wx said: Latest two RAP's I am looking at track it over the cape, confused I think your looking at the ULL tracking over the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:33 PM, coldfront said: But if the surface low tracks further east, So does the ULL when it comes thru, So folks east could get into more of the backside snow Just check the obs south, They are getting ripped Rap idea would bring the sting to the coast . HRR to about ct/ Ri border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:33 PM, coldfront said: But if the surface low tracks further east, So does the ULL when it comes thru, So folks east could get into more of the backside snow Just check the obs south, They are getting ripped It's nowcasting at this point ,still favors berks imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Loving that 12z NAM...let's hope it's inside it's useful range now. Just a pummeling for VT on the backside. Beautiful mid level tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:35 PM, coldfront said: I think your looking at the ULL tracking over the cape Can't post the graphics as they are paid, but the low tugs way NW of that in later frames. Were talking over interior SNE, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:37 PM, powderfreak said: Loving that 12z NAM...let's hope it's inside it's useful range now. Just a pummeling for VT on the backside. Beautiful mid level tracks. I think your pretty safe here, You look to jackpot on this one, And the berks and albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAM is way west with the mid-level stuff later on...proba only an inch or so for most of SNE on the back end...maybe 4-6" for GC...but the real meat is out west from Taconics to ALB and up into VT...should be interesting to track later on regardless. OTOH, the front ender on the NAM is some incredible stuff. It has support too from the Euro. The next 6-8 hours could be pretty wild over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:37 PM, powderfreak said: Loving that 12z NAM...let's hope it's inside it's useful range now. Just a pummeling for VT on the backside. Beautiful mid level tracks. A thing of beauty for you, Scott. Not too shabby for here either, though the most intense area is far eastern NY and then to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:43 PM, coldfront said: I think your pretty safe here, You look to jackpot on this one, And the berks and albany It's all about that band as we won't get more than 1-3" with the WAA precip on the front end. After all the worry up here of it going east, I woke up last night in a nightmare that the best banding set up NW of where it was progged (as happens sometimes in these) and we ended up watching Sherbrooke to Montreal to SLK get bombed haha. I will say regardless of what happens, being included in the chase of this one has been fun aside from the DEC/JAN storms when we never really had a shot at anything other than smokin' cirrus. The chase is always fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Time to sit back and enjoy boys & girls. Here's the link to WxBell's HRRR. This should be freely available. http://models.weatherbell.com/hrrr/hrrr_neng.php This is just awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:52 PM, Chrisrotary12 said: Time to sit back and enjoy boys & girls. Here's the link to WxBell's HRRR. This should be freely available. http://models.weatherbell.com/hrrr/hrrr_neng.php This is just awesome. They want you to subscribe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:55 PM, coldfront said: They want you to subscribeGo to main page, click the models banner on the right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:25 PM, PolarVortex said: Heavy stuff moving in here, still rain and 33.4 and rising. I'm actually surprised. If this doesn't flip back for at least a coating this will be one of the worst "front end" busts I can remember here. Even the NAM has the kinks at 8h that indicate it's trying to cool the column, but I'm not sure if the first few hundred feet are so shot already it doesn't matter. I'm speaking of east of the CF, but particularly RIGHT on the coast. I could see it snowing a few miles back from the water up north between here and Boston even if it doesn't "dynamically cool" It could even snow at say Otis and still be raining up through parts of coastal PYM right on the water like it does from time to time. Snowing hard at my house 1.5 miles from Duxbury bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Check my pix from last night :-). I love being this kind of wrong :-) - PAUL KOCIN'S Text hahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:58 PM, JC in CT said: Go to main page, click the models banner on the right Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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