Stormlover74 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Disregard the GFS. Just look at the radar south of us, before the best lift is primed to hit. That can fall in 2 hours. Oh I am..its just laughable to see the differences as the storm is underway..something went haywire for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 HECS? take it easy there now. Yeah, seriously. Had to delete that post. It's a very nice run but we will really have to watch the radar tomorrow to see where the CCB ends up. The Euro trending east with it was a good sign though. It looks real for somebody and it could really dump where temps crash fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 If its weatherbell maps showing all this shouldn't we cut the EURO totals down a bit since wxbell is usually overdone? What do the other "good" snow maps on the EURO show? Soundings support 14"-18" in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Meanwhile we have the gfs giving us 4-6". GFS already busted horribly to the south of us. I think it will be so wrong that they should probably consider reworking the entire model. How can anyone not consider the Euro and the entire suite besides the GFS just 12-18 hours out at this point. It would be utter irresponsibility to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yeah, seriously. Had to delete that post. It's a very nice run but we will really have to watch the radar tomorrow to see where the CCB ends up. The Euro trending east with it was a good sign though. It looks real for somebody and it could really dump where temps crash fast enough. Euro has 1.25" of precip for NYC through 1pm tomorrow and 850s and surface are still below freezing. That's without the .69" of backend it has. Euro verbatim is a borderline hecs. No arguing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Coastal front is making progress. Ambrose Light is now 35F with ENE wind. I don't think given the colder model trends tonight including short range models that it screws many outside eastern Suffolk but is interesting to see push on.Winds should also shift NE everywhere as the coastal low gets going later. All this ensures around the city is the heavy wet snow that will likely knock power out/trees down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Euro has 1.25" of precip for NYC through 1pm tomorrow and 850s and surface are still below freezing. That's without the .69" of backend it has. Euro verbatim is a borderline hecs. No arguing that. Hard to argue that widespread 12-18" amounts in and around NYC would be considered very close to historic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hard to argue that widespread 12-18" amounts in and around NYC would be considered very close to historic Given the last few years, I'd say not. 19" on Jan 27, 2011, 22" on Feb 25, 2010, 27" on Feb 11, 2006, etc. I'd say that's a MECS for sure, but not historic. It's really nowcasting time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm still very cautious about us getting close to a foot. I still think some sleet is a possibility to cut down totals and I'm not completely convinced with the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Given the last few years, I'd say not. 19" on Jan 27, 2011, 22" on Feb 25, 2010, 27" on Feb 11, 2006, etc. I'd say that's a MECS for sure, but not historic. It's really nowcasting time. The difference between MECS and HECS will likely be determined by the CCB - Just as it was by on Feb 11 2006. so we sit, wait & see. If we are nearing a foot in 8 hours as NAM & Euro are indicating is possible then all my chips are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm still very cautious about us getting close to a foot. I still think some sleet is a possibility to cut down totals and I'm not completely convinced with the CCB. I agree. We'll really have to verify this in the morning but definitely good signs so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Given the last few years, I'd say not. 19" on Jan 27, 2011, 22" on Feb 25, 2010, 27" on Feb 11, 2006, etc. I'd say that's a MECS for sure, but not historic. It's really nowcasting time. Those recent numbers kind of skew the data though. For argument sake if the EURO verifies especially with the duration of the event I would say historic but at this point we are splitting hairs. If this storm happened in the 80's or 90's it would def be considered historic we are on some roll since 03 though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Euro has 1.25" of precip for NYC through 1pm tomorrow and 850s and surface are still below freezing. That's without the .69" of backend it has. Euro verbatim is a borderline hecs. No arguing that. Awesome run And at the end of it all the EURO has it track right over the SST boundary I was talking about lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 "The index differs from other meteorological indices in that it uses population information in addition to meteorological measurements. Thus NESIS gives an indication of a storm's societal impacts. This scale was developed because of the impact Northeast snowstorms can have on the rest of the country in terms of transportation and economic impact." "NESIS scores are a function of the area affected by the snowstorm, the amount of snow, and the number of people living in the path of the storm." this storm is not a HECS as many of you wish it to be. We need large metropolitan areas getting 20-30+ inches of snow for this to be even close to a HECS like 93 and 96. So please stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 SREFs are similar to 21z a little better on the back end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Nam has slowed down the arriaval of the heavy stuff by afew hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The Euro CCB .70 - falls through Minus 7 air . Wind gusts to 50 tonite . Think NJ NYC Nassau County and the Lower Hudson Valley would add 8 - 10 inches on the back end with White out conditions if the Euro is right . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I wouldn't assume the euro is all snow in the CCB part 2...mid-level warmth is still quite prevalent at 00z, and we dont know how much qpf we lose in that time stamp to 6z, but there is more afterwards and definitely a few inches. I'm pumped for 10+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabiggiu Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 12z NAM still impressive with the backend wraparound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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