dbc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1203 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014 VALID FEB 13/0000 UTC THRU FEB 16/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... ...AN EVALUATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS ALONG WITH PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE... THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS. ...UPPER TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY-TILTED OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY 13/1800Z... ...STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST... PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH WITH THE IMPULSE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BY 14/0000Z...THE 12Z UKMET/ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALL SHOW A CLOSED 534-DM LOW CROSSING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CONTINUAL DEEPENING IS FORECAST ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES UP INTO LOWER NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH REGARD TO TIMING...THE 00Z NAM/21Z SREF MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE A BIT SLOWER WHILE THE 00Z GFS/12Z CMC ARE QUICKER MOVING THE ENERGY NORTHWARD. LOOKING AT THE SURFACE...AS EXPECTED...THE 12Z CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH MORE SCATTER AMONGST THE MEMBERS. THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH MUCH MORE CONSOLIDATION NOTED IN THE PAST 2 PLOTS. DO LIKE THE CONTINUITY IT HAS BEEN SHOWING SO WILL INCORPORATE ITS SOLUTION INTO THE PREFERENCE. THE 00Z NAM REASONABLY FOLLOWED THE PATH ALOFT SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF SO WILL BLEND THE TWO HERE. They went with the old Double E Rule, sweet lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Well, I'm heading off a bit early and trusting the Euro to not do anything crazy in my absence. I'd rather not see it at all. I've learned quite a bit from tracking this storm, and amazingly, that seems to happen with every weather event I observe. This storm will be the culmination of thousands of posts, hundreds of model runs, and a million different opinions; still, the snowflakes will fall as they will, which is rather humbling. I've compiled a few of my favorite real-time images from tonight, in a gallery here: http://imgur.com/a/AIqFx. Hope somebody thinks they're as cool as I do. Night everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I just like showing the 30 inch dot over my house . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Meso discussion http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0098.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Guys, I know everyone's pumped but keep this thread clean of extraneous crap besides model discussion/analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Euro colder through 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 00Z ECMWF has 1' of snow for NYC before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 00Z ECMWF has 1' of snow for NYC before the changeover. CCB also looking sweet for many interests here. .6+ qpf from the CCB in KNYC all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 CCB also looking sweet for many interests here. Looks like 14-18" of snow for NYC on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We just had the best Euro run of the entire time tracking this system, and it just started snowing. Colder with more precipitation on the front end, better CCB behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We just had the best Euro run of the entire time tracking this system, and it just started snowing. Colder with more precipitation on the front end, better CCB behind it. One of the most gorgeous Euro runs I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Easily 12-18 for NYC on this euro run.. North and west burbs get absolutely slammed.. Some places could walk away with over 2 feet if the euro verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like 14-18" of snow for NYC on this run. Could be more with higher ratios in the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We just had the best Euro run of the entire time tracking this system, and it just started snowing. Colder with more precipitation on the front end, better CCB behind it. Haha classic! I'm very impressed by This system. Someone will jackpot north of 20. Who remains to be seen. Likely someone just north and west of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We just had the best Euro run of the entire time tracking this system, and it just started snowing. Colder with more precipitation on the front end, better CCB behind it. Wow. Does it lose any skill this close in? What a ride we're in for... I hate bringing up 1/26/11, but tonight's runs are giving me those kind of chills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The high resolution Euro CCB development looks just like the robust 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The high resolution Euro CCB development looks just like the robust 4km NAM Earthlight, What does Euro show in Monmouth County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm glad things are trending for you city guys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The high resolution Euro CCB development looks just like the robust 4km NAM Whoa! Seriously? Looks like the 4KM NAM may win one for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 How far south and west of the ciry does the .6 or so qpf extend for the ccb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 How much verbatim would we be looking at thurs night- fri? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Whoa! Seriously? Looks like the 4KM NAM may win one for this event. If this comes through... The euro deserves a huge pat on the back.. Consistent for nearly 4 days and is making it's minor adjustment just prior to event.. Very pleased with the euros performance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Would be amazing if Euro verifies and it very well could as with most storms this winter, trends are going our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I honestly dont know what to say, this run was nuts. And really it isnt far off from the 4K nam. Easily 12+ in andnaround KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The EURO shows a classic closed off H5 low. 12-20" Jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Euro is the same or even better then the 4KM NAM. Probably one of the best euro runs I've ever seen, inside of 24 hours. Boxing Day maybe rivals it, but this one is much more expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 fwiw snowmap i saw of euro is basically 17" from trenton north thru the rest of NJ. similar near NYC. roughly a foot on most of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The EURO jumping on board does it for me. I'm all in. This is incredible. HECS in the making here. Meanwhile we have the gfs giving us 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Meanwhile we have the gfs giving us 4-6". Disregard the GFS. Just look at the radar south of us, before the best lift is primed to hit. That can fall in 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 If its weatherbell maps showing all this shouldn't we cut the EURO totals down a bit since wxbell is usually overdone? What do the other "good" snow maps on the EURO show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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