Mitchel Volk Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sorry Mods just wanted to comment on this. I met Nick Gregory when I came out of college and was invited to his weather center. I can tell you he is a great guy in person. Yes he is I know him too, he is by far the best met in the NYC T V market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Anyone have RGEM Ptype maps& accums yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Anyone have RGEM Ptype maps& accums yet? http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemreg&run=00&type=SN〈=en&map=na Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Anyone have RGEM Ptype maps& accums yet? It's up to 1/2" rain for NE NJ/ N YC, and 8-12" of snow total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The HRRR is 10 -14 from DC to NYC to Nassau County and the N shore of Suffolk thru NOON tomorrow . Looks to be the snowiest of the guidance . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It's up to 1/2" rain for NE NJ/ N YC, and 8-12" of snow total I love the RGEM normally but I don't think it is handling the CCB properly just yet as we may need to wait another run or two before it is in it's wheelhouse. Remember it is at it's best 12-18 hours before event time. CCB passage is likely not until tomorrow night. Most of the RGEM snow total is coming from the front end right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM has been all over the place. But honestly, I don't think anyone or any model has this pinned down. Ya just can't put reigns on this buck. If ya asked me or say Bastardi, a bit west of models. And this precip shield is awesome, no way the nam buttons her down to the small real estate it has figured for big snow. In the end, we are gonna see a big swath of 1' . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM has been fluctuating so much on its runs, I can't take it seriously and that's a change of pace for a model that has been pretty stellar this winter, especially the past few storms we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What are peoples thoughts on the backlash snow tmrw night, an additional 2-4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The HRRR is 10 -14 from DC to NYC to Nassau County and the N shore of Suffolk thru NOON tomorrow . Looks to be the snowiest of the guidance . Models are definitely making for a cutoff line where the coastal front sets up on LI, which now looks to be from Fire Island northeast to Riverhead in Suffolk. West of that line looks to be in a great spot. That front looks to be headed west slowly right now. East/south of it temps spike at least 5 degs to above freezing and winds turn easterly. I guess if that happens to me, . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM is 25 - 30 MM of snow for NYC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM has been all over the place. But honestly, I don't think anyone or any model has this pinned down. Ya just can't put reigns on this buck. If ya asked me or say Bastardi, a bit west of models. And this precip shield is awesome, no way the nam buttons her down to the small real estate it has figured for big snow. In the end, we are gonna see a big swath of 1' . RGEM has been fluctuating so much on its runs, I can't take it seriously and that's a change of pace for a model that has been pretty stellar this winter, especially the past few storms we've had. Agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What are peoples thoughts on the backlash snow tmrw night, an additional 2-4"? I'd guess for now 1-3". A chunk of it looks to be thrown away at sleet and rain, and obviously where the meat of it goes is anyone's guess. For as prolific as it seems on some models I don't see anything like what happened 1/26/11, maybe something like Christmas 2002 in some spots. Right now, the "Christmas 2002" axis looks to be just west of the city up to maybe Newburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Models are definitely making for a cutoff line where the coastal front sets up on LI, which now looks to be from Fire Island northeast to Riverhead in Suffolk. West of that line looks to be in a great spot. That front looks to be headed west slowly right now. East/south of it temps spike at least 5 degs to above freezing and winds turn easterly. I guess if that happens to me, . Yeh , Think you could drive from mid suffolk county on the south shore and head into Nassau on the N shore , you may go from 4 to 10 inside a 30 min ride . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM is 25 - 30 MM of snow for NYC . Yes but it does have .5 LE as rain (close to the wettest for the rain right now) and it is a mess with getting a handle on the CCB and has been for several runs in a row (not in it's best range for that yet probably). It has very little for many with the CCB so it's putting the snow focus on the front end and that's more in its range right now. 26 mm is probably 95% front end. GGEM has been more steady actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Models are definitely making for a cutoff line where the coastal front sets up on LI, which now looks to be from Fire Island northeast to Riverhead in Suffolk. West of that line looks to be in a great spot. That front looks to be headed west slowly right now. East/south of it temps spike at least 5 degs to above freezing and winds turn easterly. I guess if that happens to me, . Surface temps won't really matter. Mid levels is what will determine who see's the most snow. I don't think too much of a huge difference will setup between N. shore and S. shore, but the N. shore will definitely have more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The CCB is still up in the air, but we'll know more tomorrow. I wouldn't be counting on the CCB though as it may not even materialized over the area, so I'd keep my hopes very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Lee Golberg has 10-16 inches close to nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Man, the HRRR is just going absolutely bonkers with this front end band. Showing potential for lightning, 2-3" per hour rates. This could be a really memorable few hours if it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sorry Mods just wanted to comment on this. I met Nick Gregory when I came out of college and was invited to his weather center. I can tell you he is a great guy in person. I tweet with Nick all the time and actually met him too years ago at a Greek Dance. He spoke with me (17 years old then) for over 30 minutes in detail about weather. Incredibly great guy. Was so polite and friendly. Speaks fluent Greek and is active in the Greek community. Back on topic, I am seriously thinking here that the NYC area has a realistic chance of a greater snowfall than forecasted by most. If the changeover does not occur based on the recent colder and more eastern track, and that CCB band does come in with the intensity that is currently being shown, the chance for a 12-16 inch event is likely. Wouldn't be surprised with a couple of 18 inch lollipops within the immediate NYC area. I would say its greater than a 50/50 chance as of now with the latest guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesny Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Man, the HRRR is just going absolutely bonkers with this front end band. Showing potential for lightning, 2-3" per hour rates. This could be a really memorable few hours if it's correct. 1hsnw_t3sfc_f13.png How reliable is the HRRR at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Be careful with the RAP it is too warm it is 22 in Colts Neck at Midnight the RAP has me at 26 - It changes KNYC over at 5 AM . Its too warm follow the HRRR . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 How reliable is the HRRR at this range? Its getting into its deadly range now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Man, the HRRR is just going absolutely bonkers with this front end band. Showing potential for lightning, 2-3" per hour rates. This could be a really memorable few hours if it's correct. 1hsnw_t3sfc_f13.png If the VV's are anywhere close to correct, we should have an absolutely incredible 3 hours or so around daybreak and just after. Even now there looks to be a huge snowband developing over S NJ. I'm feeling very good about what happens up until around 10am when thermals finally become questionable north of Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Man, the HRRR is just going absolutely bonkers with this front end band. Showing potential for lightning, 2-3" per hour rates. This could be a really memorable few hours if it's correct. 1hsnw_t3sfc_f13.png The 0z NAM also showing this with front end band. Very strong frontogenesis passing over us about 3 hours or so tomorrow morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Man, the HRRR is just going absolutely bonkers with this front end band. Showing potential for lightning, 2-3" per hour rates. This could be a really memorable few hours if it's correct. 1hsnw_t3sfc_f13.png If it's anything like what they got down south, it will be a raking for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Man, the HRRR is just going absolutely bonkers with this front end band. Showing potential for lightning, 2-3" per hour rates. This could be a really memorable few hours if it's correct. 1hsnw_t3sfc_f13.png That's why when you look at the 2z 10 to 1 ratio 15 hour snowfall map its 14 to 16 into Nassau county - that band is 3 plus an hour . Most everyone else from the N/S border west its 12 plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just FYI...the trend on the RGEM was for a bigger backend snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Man, the HRRR is just going absolutely bonkers with this front end band. Showing potential for lightning, 2-3" per hour rates. This could be a really memorable few hours if it's correct. 1hsnw_t3sfc_f13.png That's 4+" per hour in a portion of NE Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1203 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014VALID FEB 13/0000 UTC THRU FEB 16/1200 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST......AN EVALUATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS ALONG WITH PRELIMINARYPREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 00ZNAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS....UPPER TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY-TILTED OVER THE COASTALCAROLINAS BY 13/1800Z......STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST...PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWFFORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGECURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSINGTHE DEEP SOUTH WITH THE IMPULSE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD INRESPONSE TO RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BY14/0000Z...THE 12Z UKMET/ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALL SHOW ACLOSED 534-DM LOW CROSSING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CONTINUALDEEPENING IS FORECAST ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES UP INTO LOWER NEWENGLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH REGARD TO TIMING...THE 00Z NAM/21ZSREF MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE A BIT SLOWER WHILETHE 00Z GFS/12Z CMC ARE QUICKER MOVING THE ENERGY NORTHWARD.LOOKING AT THE SURFACE...AS EXPECTED...THE 12Z CMC ENSEMBLEMEMBERS ARE FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH MORE SCATTER AMONGST THEMEMBERS. THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHAND WEST WITH MUCH MORE CONSOLIDATION NOTED IN THE PAST 2 PLOTS.DO LIKE THE CONTINUITY IT HAS BEEN SHOWING SO WILL INCORPORATE ITSSOLUTION INTO THE PREFERENCE. THE 00Z NAM REASONABLY FOLLOWED THEPATH ALOFT SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF SO WILL BLEND THE TWO HERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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