IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 If I were you, I would pay little or no attention to the GFS due to its lack of picking up on dynamics and cooling. I might use it for track and maybe intensity, but not for QPF or temperatures. Leave that to the high-res models. IMHO I think that the 00Z UKMET will be a better reference. It's pretty cold like the 4KM NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 UKMET coming in colder. 850's are below 0c in NYC through 18z. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The GFS is still playing catchup but overall was colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The GFS is still playing catchup but overall was colder WAs???? Thought GFS about to run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The GFS is barely 0.75" for NENJ I'm tossing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 UKMET coming in colder. 850's are below 0c in NYC through 18z. Wow. Wow that bolds well for the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The GFS is barely 0.75" for NENJ I'm tossing. and not even all snow. lucky to get 5 inches nw of the city if the gfs is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The GFS is barely 0.75" for NENJ I'm tossing.NCEP should unplug it. Ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Interesting that the GFS isn't even much snow or precip for the Hudson valley or northern NJ...it brings everything further north and east actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 and not even all snow. lucky to get 5 inches nw of the city if the gfs is right There's no 0z GFS run yet, is there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 There's no 0z GFS run yet, is there? It's already out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 There's no 0z GFS run yet, is there? Yes it is out and all of the important hours for this storm are in....altogether it's the worst case scenario for mostly everyone here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The GFS finally came around at 12z today before crashing. It's been terribly inconsistent, and consistently terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The GFS finally came around at 12z today before crashing. It's been terribly inconsistent, and consistently terrible. lol. Time for an upgrade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NE Mets tossing the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The last HRRR run had the entire area with 10"+ of snow at hour 15 with the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NE Mets tossing the GFS It'll probably be right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 and not even all snow. lucky to get 5 inches nw of the city if the gfs is right Take a look to you`re south does that look like .5 ? Most will have 8 to 10 inches by morning . Look to the High res models now , will give u all the guidance you need . HRRR ( 10 ) RAP ( 8 ) NAM ( 10 ) all on same page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NE Mets tossing the GFS As is this NYC Met... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It'll probably be right now. If you read the Model Diagnostic Discussion from the WPC issued earlier today, they specifically mentioned the GFS had consistently been too light with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It is very disconcerting that the GFS is so bad. The amount of moisture to that south is ridiculous no wayyy the GFS has any clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 As is this NYC Met... As am I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 As is this NYC Met... Good tell all the imbeciles at the TV networks to do the same lol. If they don't the 11pm weather broadcasts will be embarassing to the weather community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 As am I It's as if it studied for the wrong exam and is sh*tting the bed on test day. Laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Good tell all the imbeciles at the TV networks to do the same lol. If they don't the 11pm weather broadcasts will be embarassing to the weather community. Nick Gregory was just on... and on point, as usual. Good guy and great meteorologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It's as if it studied for the wrong exam and is sh*tting the bed on test day. Laughable. It's the only way to describe it. The gfs has been laughable with this system. It's an embarrassment to the American suite of models. In an Olympic model competition the gfs just pulled a shaun White/bode Miller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Good tell all the imbeciles at the TV networks to do the same lol. If they don't the 11pm weather broadcasts will be embarassing to the weather community. Nick Gregory clearly suggested at the end of the broadcast that he thinks the model trends for colder/snowier solutions will lead to more snow for the city. He's on the ball where some of the other's seem to be hugging the GFS which is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Nick Gregory was just on... and on point, as usual. Good guy and great meteorologist. Agreed, one of the few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GFS precip toss it out. I think it must be convective feed back. It still may be useful for the storm track and intensiy. I agree, 6"-10" on the front end and 2"-4" on the backend, but that can easlier be more. If it is like 1/11 storm which the models gave nyc .50 melted then we need to see how it develops. However, that area was larger and easier to predict. This area will be smaller so any shift will make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Agreed, one of the few. Sorry Mods just wanted to comment on this. I met Nick Gregory when I came out of college and was invited to his weather center. I can tell you he is a great guy in person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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