jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Please see previous posts to see when models come out. Don't ask repeatedly in the thread or ask for how much a model says for your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 BTW it's TROWAL not Trowel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 0z HRRR DESTROYED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! thru 10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yeah I pasted a snippet from LWX earlier mentioning how the euro has so far had the best handle of everything. Of course thats gonna get buried in here Hopefully the Euros thermal profiles end up too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Boy is the nam insistent on 1.00 plus inches at least on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 0z HRRR DESTROYED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! thru 10am Can't see image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM looks like it has a great CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Can't see image It shows 6" for most areas by 10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAM HRRR RAP , all see close to 10 inches for KNYC before we snizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAM HRRR RAP , all see close to 10 inches for KNYC before we snizzle How much more after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 How much more after? The HRRR and RAP are short range , the NAM was written about above . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Can anyone point out where the kicker is exactly and if its on track or behind/ahead of schedule? Thanks. Right about the great Lakes region in one of the maps recently posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RAP and HRRR don't go out that far yet How much more after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 So on the precip type maps and totals....NYC gets about 0.25+ rain, 1.25" snow, a tiny bit of freezing rain (more west and east even) and maybe a bit of sleet....so it's mainly a front end thump, to mainly rain then slowly back to an additional few inches at least. Hudson valley gets clobbered with mainly snow/sleet. East sees no freezing rain. Totals are not set in stone by any stretch of the imagination right now and will vary by the hour as sampling and changes take place. There is no guarantee NYC goes all rain and no guarantee about backside CCB snows. The setup is there for it but it all comes down to where it closes off and where the CCB sets up. Take the time to READ all the posts. Yanks27, Earthlight, PB, Red etc all offer up excellent advice and info to digest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM on the verge of flipping NYC over @ hr16 ( similar to NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM looks a little on the warm side on the precip type map vs 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 4k Nam city loses 2 hours of the CCB to HVY mixed precip 850`s are plus 2 until Hour 29 , Then we flip . We had that in 2011 - will sleet first City east , then its bombs away Upton thinks there are gusts to 50 with this , so expect white out conditions with this P I'm not buying into the change to rain for any significant amount of time at all. Would you agree? I know the 900 temps and placement are nerve wracking to an extant but I have this gut feeling the push won't be there before it heads off to the NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Here comes the CCB on the RGEM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 East sees no freezing rain. Totals are not set in stone by any stretch of the imagination right now and will vary by the hour as sampling and changes take place. There is no guarantee NYC goes all rain and no guarantee about backside CCB snows. The setup is there for it but it all comes down to where it closes off and where the CCB sets up. Take the time to READ all the posts. Yanks27, Earthlight, PB, Red etc all offer up excellent advice and info to digest. Hmm...the beginning of my post stated that I was showing what the MAPS show. I have been reading the posts by the knowledgeable posters and was posting my reading of those maps because some people had requested them. They are clearly a model interpretation and will not happen as is, i think all of us know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM on the verge of flipping NYC over @ hr16 ( similar to NAM) 15z looks to be about the cutoff for the South Shore, maybe an hour or two later for Manhattan/North Shore. 90% of the precip should be done though by 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 15z looks to be about the cutoff for the South Shore, maybe an hour or two later for Manhattan/North Shore. 90% of the precip should be done though by 15z. Agree, changeover on the south shore should be around 10am. We should have a very good front end thump, get a little rain after that, then we get the CCB. Temps are warm at the 925mb layer for the beginning of the CCB but cool shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 how reliable is the HRRR in general? it absolutely nailed the feb 3 event with snow totals for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM looks to give our parts 2-3 hours of wraparound snow (a lot of the precip is still transitioning from rain to mix to snow)....it lifts out pretty quickly compared to other runs but is in line with the NAM it seems Also shows another chance at snow after this storm exits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 how reliable is the HRRR in general? it absolutely nailed the feb 3 event with snow totals for me. Hearing HRRR is a cold outlier?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 how reliable is the HRRR in general? it absolutely nailed the feb 3 event with snow totals for me. HRRR has been stellar this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 HRRR has been great this winter. Picks up well on the low level cold and cooling dynamics in the column. Hearing HRRR is a cold outlier?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The RGEM has been strangely inconsistent for the past 4 runs. If the GFS is similar to the NAM, then the RGEM will most likely flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The RGEM has been strangely inconsistent for the past 4 runs. If the GFS is similar to the NAM, then the RGEM will most likely flop. If I were you, I would pay little or no attention to the GFS due to its lack of picking up on dynamics and cooling. I might use it for track and maybe intensity, but not for QPF or temperatures. Leave that to the high-res models. IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 P I'm not buying into the change to rain for any significant amount of time at all. Would you agree? I know the 900 temps and placement are nerve wracking to an extant but I have this gut feeling the push won't be there before it heads off to the NNE. Don`t think its heavy , but there`s light rain for a bit , Don't think it wrecks you`re snow cover as temps are 33- 34 max . But we flip then DRY slot . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 how reliable is the HRRR in general? it absolutely nailed the feb 3 event with snow totals for me. It was spot on during last Wednesday's storm up here (Dutchess county). It had the changeover line and time basically dead on throughout the event. Was pretty much spot on with snow accumulations as well. The 1z run looks to give the city, parts of LI, and NJ easily 10"+ (that's through 11 am and assuming no mixing of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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