jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wow....this run actually brings the mix line back southeast at 27-30 hours ?! Heavy snow rates will cool the column. That's why I'm not particularly worried about 925 temps going a little above freezing (like to maybe 0.5C). But if they spike above that and the snow lessens to moderate or less, there would likely be mixing above that 925mb temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 CCB KNYC 5 Boroughs thru Nassau County almost .8 in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 How the 4k looking yanks Good so far, I don't think anyone north of I-80 gets truly dry slotted this run. Waiting on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 So basically this is THE ideal run for me here in NE NJ...I don't think it'd be exaggerating to say it shows 15-20" of snow here with the jackpot area RIGHT over NYC, as per snow map (wxbell) Amazing run for us in NENJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 CCB KNYC 5 Boroughs thru Nassau County almost .8 in 6 hours Be probably the same as for me as well. Great run thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Verbatim this run would bring 1/27/11-like totals to the area, from I-195 north. I still think the CCB favors the city west mostly, but these are very fickle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Good so far, I don't think anyone north of I-80 gets truly dry slotted this run. Waiting on the back end. I am very pleased with the run. Big totals in NW NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The normal run of the NAM is smoothing out the trowel too much, the 4k NAM shows a very organized area of snow forming over eastern PA. That's only going to intensify as it heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 24hr Precip totals... Only shows 4-8 inches for NYC north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 it'a also nowcast time, so the last minute of the nam may or may not be that important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The trowel starts intensifying as it crosses the Delaware river, this is going to hammer the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 i can't find the total for us.. help me matt! I am very pleased with the run. Big totals in NW NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 over 2" qpf storm total.. minus any mixing and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Only shows 4-8 inches for NYC north? Through 24hrs.. Before the CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Only shows 4-8 inches for NYC north? Even if so u r looking at another .8 on the back end per the nam probably on 12-1 ratios for 6-9 more . I think Ull take 10-17 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Destroyed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like two clearly separate bands on the backend with lighter snow in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 4km is just...ridiculous. A foot on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Even NYC would have 24" of total snowcover by the end of this NAM run. Just picture perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The NAM is in line in the short range RAP and HRRR with the 10 inches on the front . I would not get too caught up on the deformation band if it didn`t hit you on the 0z run , at 18z it weakened it across LI at 0z it rakes Nassau County . The track is prob set , the front is prob set , the back end has wiggle room . So don`t panic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This is why I said that the NAM was deceiving for NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like two clearly separate bands on the backend with lighter snow in between Loop back the radar on 1/27/11 and it looked just like that. The first hour here was lost to sleet but then we detonated with ridiculous snow for the 5 hours after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The real big winner with the trowel is the lower Hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 4km NAM is outstanding, there is 1.25+ from NYC south before a changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Even if so u r looking at another .8 on the back end per the nam probably on 12-1 ratios for 6-9 more . I think Ull take 10-17 ? Yes, the back end finishes the deal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Total QPF on the 4k NAM is in the 1.75-2.50" range areawide. It's more than 90% frozen for the NW half of the forum. Probably 18-24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 4k actually looks way colder at the surface than 18z with the front dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 4k actually looks way colder at the surface than 18z with he front dump The surface temp won't be a problem for any of us on a NE wind. That's why it's more important to look at 925mb. The wind up there and 850mb veers to east and southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 At 06z Friday the area is still getting hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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