ChescoWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Wxsim with 6z data shows 2" to 4" for NW Chesco from this one and then an ice storm on Monday into Tuesday AM...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 So the NAM is south, and the GFS is north. What does the Euro and the other foreign models say? 06Z RGEM was right in the middle with the heaviest precip. Still less than 0.5" QPF, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looks like the models are developing a band over the NW sections that kind of sinks SE...I think the city MAY have surface temp issues, but we'll see. Going 1-4" from Philly W & NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Might want to start a thread for next Tuesday, Models are showing a nice little wedge that could hold long enough to see some frozen precip before changing to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Sorry we don't need anymore snow... Not funny anymore With all due respect, why would you hang out on this message board... particularly in a thread about a snow threat... if you hate snow? FWIW, unless somebody here has powers that they have not disclosed, our opinions and hopes for or against a weather event won't change anything. A much higher power than any of us decides if, when, and how much snow/rain/wind/heat/cold/drought we get, and we just deal with it. This is just a place to hang out and exchange thoughts with like-minded people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I wouldn't even notice another 1-3 inches except on the trees. I can imagine how bad Philly streets are today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I wouldn't even notice another 1-3 inches except on the trees. I can imagine how bad Philly streets are today.you see the pa tpk? 200 car accident! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 See my post in the storm thread. I have an idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Gfs is a general 2-4" for saturday...low take a track from obx to just outside the bm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS 925 mb temps are torchy and that has me worried. PA could get steady snow while NJ has drizzle and mid 30's before seeing a few hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS 925 mb temps are torchy and that has me worried. PA could get steady snow while NJ has drizzle and mid 30's before seeing a few hours of snow.I am expecting any accums on cars, old snow, etc....not so much on roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS 925 mb temps are torchy and that has me worried. PA could get steady snow while NJ has drizzle and mid 30's before seeing a few hours of snow. I was just about to post this, but yeah, the warmth on the GFS is disconcerting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It will snow and stick N and W - it just wants to snow - persistence is a good forecast this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 With all due respect, why would you hang out on this message board... particularly in a thread about a snow threat... if you hate snow? FWIW, unless somebody here has powers that they have not disclosed, our opinions and hopes for or against a weather event won't change anything. A much higher power than any of us decides if, when, and how much snow/rain/wind/heat/cold/drought we get, and we just deal with it. This is just a place to hang out and exchange thoughts with like-minded people. JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 12z EURO is further west but no big changes in QPF for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 12z EURO is further west but no big changes in QPF for our area.thermal profiles? I am assuming it's warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I see CTP has put up advisories - nothing yet from Mt Holly - one thing for sure all the vendors are hitting this harder than the current NWS forecasts - see vendor thread below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 12z EURO is further west but no big changes in QPF for our area. i feel like we have seen this scenario 1000 times, the storm will blow up to the north of us, boston, cape code, eastern LI will all get hammered, and we get a decent period of light-moderate snow I'd say 2-3 inches looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I am expecting any accums on cars, old snow, etc....not so much on roads. anything that adds to the snowpack is good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 anything that adds to the snowpack is good!I agree with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 i feel like we have seen this scenario 1000 times, the storm will blow up to the north of us, boston, cape code, eastern LI will all get hammered, and we get a decent period of light-moderate snow I'd say 2-3 inches looks good. I'd be happy with 2 to 3" - seems like when you have a major storm come through like yesterday, it's rare to have anything immediately afterwards of any intensity (around here at least), even though it's apparently progged to get quite strong eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 thermal profiles? I am assuming it's warm? All snow. Shore areas more in question though, much colder than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 All snow. Shore areas more in question though, much colder than GFS.thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 thermal profiles? I am assuming it's warm? .17 at PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 yeah the GFS seems to be all on its own with that warmth tomorrow. I'm comfortable with a 1-3/2-4 type forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4Me Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Can you give me a sense of the timing of this event tomorrow? Starting after 1pm? ending before 6pm? With Much appreciation.... Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Can you give me a sense of the timing of this event tomorrow? Starting after 1pm? ending before 6pm? With Much appreciation.... Thanks! Should be starting around sunrise and lasting though most of the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4Me Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Should be starting around sunrise and lasting though most of the afternoon. Thanks Mitchell ! My company is flying the Band Iconopop into Philly around 6pm.... they are asking me if we should cancel... Lol! I only follow the wx board.... :-) But I do Love the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 JB lol. I didn't intentionally channel JB there and, in fact, I haven't read the guy (except paraphrases by others) for years. However, in retrospect, that statement was definitely right out of the book of joe so all those years of reading him in the past must have burrowed into my brain. lol. It is funny that I can't remember something my wife told me an hour ago, but something I read from JB a decade ago is still in my subconscious. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This event stinks of something where we see .5" as the low develops too late for us as usual but then pounds Boston with 15". T-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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