mulen Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Newfoundland nuked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Latest RAP 850 temps for 7AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 This is All snow for NyC and Possibly The coast Of NYC/5 Boroughs! The Vv are insane and dynamic cooling is occurring! By HR24 the dry slot moves through and the 850s torch but the damage is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From what I read I thought it was a lot worse than what I saw. In reality it doesn't look too much different than 12z, maybe a tick warmer but the Nam has been waffling a lot with this. It looks amazing for the N&W burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The NAM focuses the CCB more into NE NJ and SE NY. Well east of where the Euro puts it. Good precip however extends back into E PA for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 8:15 PM, earthlight said: 4km showing an incredible area of strong lift pushing north through NJ/NYC as heavy snow. You can see the dynamic cooling. Paste. I have never been this excited for a front-end dump before. Most of us could get at least 6-10" with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 4km NAM has 1.50"+ liquid before any changeover. Pretty nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 8:16 PM, BrooklynSnow97 said: This is All snow for NyC and Possibly The coast Of NYC/5 Boroughs! The Vv are insane and dynamic cooling is occurring! By HR24 the dry slot moves through and the 850s torch but the damage is done Verbatim by 10AM temps get questionable around NYC but by then there's already 1"+ of liquid fallen. There's maybe 0.4-0.5" more after that which could be rain for Long Island/NYC, and thereafter the dryslot by noon-1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NYC and NE NJ, Eastern Central NJ are 1.75"+ total from both ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 i've seen the models overforecast dry slot precip too many times in the past. i think we shut off to almost nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 8:19 PM, Dsnowx53 said: I have never been this excited for a front-end dump before. Most of us could get at least 6-10" with it. Hearing you say that excites me. Also the CCB on the NAM would make pretty much everybody here happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This is a great front end run by hour 21 KNYC 1.2 plus has fallen as the 0 line is just S of the are . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 8:19 PM, Dsnowx53 said: I have never been this excited for a front-end dump before. Most of us could get at least 6-10" with it. sorry but I had to laugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 8:19 PM, earthlight said: The 4km NAM has 1.50"+ liquid before any changeover. Pretty nuts. Is the 4KM NAM more accurate than the 12KM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 8:19 PM, jm1220 said: Verbatim by 10AM temps get questionable around NYC but by then there's already 1"+ of liquid fallen. There's maybe 0.4-0.5" more after that which could be rain for Long Island/NYC, and thereafter the dryslot by noon-1pm. The 4km graphics are really exciting. They are showing an area of mid level cooling where strong lift is occurring within a band that is probably producing whiteout conditions with pasting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 8:21 PM, forkyfork said: i've seen the models overforecast dry slot precip too many times in the past. i think we shut off to almost nothing The 4k NAM shows precisely this. The front end dump is epic, then we go to drizzle from 18z till about 23z when the back end moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I actually wonder if the insane dynamic and precip could knock the 850s down for a time before things become too warm and precip starts to lighten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 8:23 PM, Zir0b said: Is the 4KM NAM more accurate than the 12KM? No, just higher resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 And at 36 850`s are Minus 4 - with about .3 coming thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 8:21 PM, Franklin0529 said: Brooklyn snow. What are the chances of that occurring just out of curiosity. Because I hope it is all snow. The air is very very cold down here monmouth county. Hoping for a wallop I agree...looking good...but we are the red headed step children of the forums with no home in Philly, and not much mention in NYC... as someone who lives in central jersey, in toms river or the above franklin in Monmouth, I really have no idea what to expect...3-6? and heavy rain... or the dynamic cooling keeps us snow?? not in IMBY question per say, just really no coverage for those of us in central/coastal jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 8:23 PM, earthlight said: The 4km graphics are really exciting. They are showing an area of mid level cooling where strong lift is occurring within a band that is probably producing whiteout conditions with pasting snow. That seems to be playing out down south as we speak. Headed our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 8:19 PM, earthlight said: The 4km NAM has 1.50"+ liquid before any changeover. Pretty nuts. 1.25"+ in 3 hours in a few spots. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like .25-50 with the Ccb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The CCB is going to crush NJ on the 4km NAM as well. Maybe the biggest weenie run of this entire tracking process so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Precip before change over in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Guys, the rates with the front-end band are going to be absolutely insane. Prepare yourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The CCB on the 4k NAM crushes pretty much the entire state of NJ. One giant convective blob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 8:21 PM, forkyfork said: i've seen the models overforecast dry slot precip too many times in the past. i think we shut off to almost nothing Actually if you look at the NAM depiction between hours 24-36 when we would taint it shows little precip. and it's not necessarily pure rain either for some. 4km shows even less than that so if the NAM is correct (which I still doubt but I digress) your theory will ring true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 8:26 PM, earthlight said: The CCB is going to crush NJ on the 4km NAM as well. Maybe the biggest weenie run of this entire tracking process so far. Heres the biggest concern john can it holds its intensity as it tracks through NYC/LI like january 2011 or christmas 2002? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 By far the biggest weenie run of the storm. The CCB is fully developed and sitting over NJ with incredible deform bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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