BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 New data in I believe for 18Z from recon flights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 when do short range models like rap and hrw nmm come into their best range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 SREFs are very wet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:26 PM, jjvesnow said: SREFs are very wet! To see the 2" countour show up on the SREFs is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 "15z SREF mean valid 7:00am tomorrow, the 32f surface line shifted a little east from the 9z run" --accuweather forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If most of us can really stay snow through noon tomorrow, we may see very impressive amounts areawide. That would be an 8 hour thumping, maybe even longer. Models have snow in by midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:34 PM, YanksFan27 said: Major CCB signal on the SREF'S Yep. Shows precip falling for 24+ hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:34 PM, YanksFan27 said: Major CCB signal on the SREF'S Based on frequency of CCB signal in various global and High rez models Im not surprised but my question is how accuratly can one predict a deformation zone that has historocally been so variable & so very very localized? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The SREF are wetter but are also much warmer so I would be careful with getting too excited over the 2" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:46 PM, kyle1 said: where did you see this update? It was just an update, i wouldn't put much stock into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:48 PM, earthlight said: The SREF are wetter but are also much warmer so I would be careful with getting too excited over the 2" QPF. SREF's looks like they're even further west than the 12z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:50 PM, REDMK6GLI said: SREF's looks like they're even further west than the 12z EURO Yea they are a lot warmer too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam looks warmer than 12z but the heavy precip extends much further west through 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:48 PM, earthlight said: The SREF are wetter but are also much warmer so I would be careful with getting too excited over the 2" QPF. 850s are above 0C in NYC from about 17z 2/13 to 7z 2/14, a total of 14 hours. It looks like ROUGHLY (I'm just going off contour lines on the NCEP maps) 0.8" liquid falls at NYC during those hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Big jump west and warmer on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:48 PM, earthlight said: The SREF are wetter but are also much warmer so I would be careful with getting too excited over the 2" QPF. The mix line probably briefly approaches Scranton PA, Albany NY, and SVT based on the ensemble mean temps. The warmest layer is above 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I thought there where going to be no more trends guess that was wrong too this comes down to nowcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 8:00 PM, BlizzardNYC said: I thought there where going to be no more trends guess that was wrong too this comes down to nowcasting This is also the NAM. Not concerned since the EURO which has been the most consistent so far came southeast to a degree like the rest of the guidance today save for the SREF's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 SLP now looks a tick east @ 28 - Man if this run is right someone in the LHV or CT will have 20+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:59 PM, earthlight said: Big jump west and warmer on the NAM The track doesn't look so different to me through 24hours. A hair weaker in terms of central pressure and the 850mb 0 line is a touch further N. The biggest difference I see is it's wetter with more expansive precip to the NW of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:59 PM, earthlight said: Big jump west and warmer on the NAM and result looks much better n//w of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Funny how these 18z runs always tend to do this only to correct at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 18z NAM crushes the area before the dry slot and then eventual CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Keep posts that are supposed to be in banter threads (complaints about model outputs, TV met/vendor predictions, etc) or other discussion threads out of the model thread. People who I have to delete posts from frequently will likely be suspended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 HI-RES NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 1.25-1.50" QPF just from the front end dump. All Snow NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Boom, that two low solution looks kind of off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 4km showing an incredible area of strong lift pushing north through NJ/NYC as heavy snow. You can see the dynamic cooling. Paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.