tonysc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Even though I would love to see Robert's graphic come to fruition, the radar doesn't lie, and looking at it right now shows an absolutely massive hole that encompasses most of the northern half of Georgia. If that upper low does produce anything in that swath that he outlined, it better start some rapid development or else this storm is outta here with little more than passing snow showers. I'm interested in the qpf totals for this storm for us Georgia folks....it didn't seem like it produced nearly the amount of precipitation that was forecast but we'll see. I keep looking for redevelopment associated with the low but just don't see anything right now. TWC just talked about that upper level low, said it would transfer it's energy to the coastal low off of SC and showed it really throwing a lot of snow back into northern Georgia and the western Carolinas. Here's hoping that happens, I have seen that a lot before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Thank that will make it up here to surry county? I think we got a very good chance at some heavy snow late tonight until around noon tomorrow, from all I've read... how much you got? I got about 7 but been sleeting last 2 or 3 hours snow mixed at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That lady's and gentlemen, is why climo wins out 99% of the time. every major HECS storm i've seen in hickory, it sleets for 6 hours in the middle of it. True. Models say one thing but climo a different. Shouldn't have been so foolish about thinking about no mixing here. We'll do go to top out at a foot here and the triad. But then again the ??? remains. But just judging by the SE radar you can tell where the 0c line is running about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I understand they received 3-6"/hr rates in Birmingham, but how much did they actually get in that ULL? I ended up with 4.5 just be of bham.....crestwood near bham 6".....general 3-6 throughout Jefferson county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just admit it. We got screwed in Atlanta this storm. Almost no snow when models were showing at least a few inches. It's depressing. None of the models got it right. We didn't get nearly our predicted QPF either. I don't consider this storm historic at all for the Atlanta area. In fact, it was a bust. Won't be a storm I look back on and be excited about if it comes up as an analog. LovingGulfLows, I don't believe in the idea of getting "screwed" by Mother Nature, period. Whatver happened was already destined to happen the way it transpired. Neither the models nor we knew what was actually going to occur. We may have thought we knew but we really didn't. When you use the word "screwed", you almost talk as if Mother Nature owed you a great storm and wanted to screw you out of it. The models are obviously just projections. I genuinely enjoyed this storm and won't let a Debby Downer like you try to change my mind. I hadn't even seen 1/2"+ of wintry precip. since 2/12/2010! I hadn't seen sleet anywhere close to this much since 1/1988. The five straight hours of sleet this afternoon was an awesome wintry experience and it looks very nice on the ground, too. I also love snow, but sleet is, itself, awesome. You give me the impression that you like snow and nothing else and that you think of sleet as being bad because it reduces your total accumulation. That's fine. I don't think about it that way because it is denser and 1" of IP is like ~2.5" of snow to me/longer lasting. When it did sleet it wasn't even supposed to snow per the models. I'm so happy the majority in Dunwoody was IP instead of ZR . Are you at least happy about that? The storm isn't 100% over just yet. No, we didn't as much qpf as predicted by this time (~1.50" on the Euro) and it isn't historic, but many areas did still get ~1" of liquid, which is usually quite impressive in its own right. Regarding the type of precip., no models were giving ATL, itself, snow before ~6 PM today because 850's were still above 0 C. The +1 to +3 C 850's suggested to me IP as the most dominant precip. type in the city and just north and that pretty much happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It would be amazing to see the Euro miss the SLP track by 150 miles a day and a half in advance. That's pretty sad. The Euro was a rock start for the overall event from day 7-8, but it was to deep and to far NW even up to 24 hours out, really never corrected, though it did tick east in the 12z run. I thought UK SLP was pretty good. I guess the rule of thumb should be to take the average of the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Dude try being in the bullseye of 10-15"+ and only getting 2". The only saving grace for Oconee and Pickens counties would be for the ULL to sit on us in the morning for a couple hours! Exactly!! Try getting 4 inches of straight snow for like 12 hours at 36 degrees, and getting about 2 with temp of 25 and an inch of sleet with 12+ inches forecast !! It hurts! The d-band in the morning could help ease the pain, but I think it goes N of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The GFS has a megadeformation band for NC tomorrow. Good Lord. EDIT: Amounts aren't particularly high (up to 0.5" QPF), but it's very widespread. One could argue the GFS is picking up on some of the smaller details that might lead to embedded higher totals, too. The 00z RGEM has a nice deformation band, too. Looks like it hits GSO pretty good as well as the Rocky Mount area, in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheech78 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The GFS has a megadeformation band for NC tomorrow. Good Lord. EDIT: Amounts aren't particularly high (up to 0.5" QPF), but it's very widespread. One could argue the GFS is picking up on some of the smaller details that might lead to embedded higher total How does it look for RDU, WRAL said we gor 5-7 inches today with ice still coming down and possibly more tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 LovingGulfLows, I don't believe in the idea of getting "screwed" by Mother Nature, period. Whatver happened was already destined to happen the way it transpired. Neither the models nor we knew what was actually going to occur. We may have thought we knew but we really didn't. When you use the word "screwed", you almost talk as if Mother Nature owed you a great storm and wanted to screw you out of it. The models are obviously just projections. I genuinely enjoyed this storm and won't let a Debby Downer like you try to change my mind. I hadn't even seen 1/2"+ of wintry precip. since 2/12/2010! I hadn't seen sleet anywhere close to this much since 1/1988. The five straight hours of sleet this afternoon was an awesome wintry experience and it looks very nice on the ground, too. I also love snow, but sleet is, itself, awesome. You give me the impression that you like snow and nothing else and that you think of sleet as being bad because it reduces your total accumulation. That's fine. I don't think about it that way because it is denser and 1" of IP is like ~2.5" of snow to me/longer lasting. When it did sleet it wasn't even supposed to snow per the models. Well said, Larry. Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I don't believe in the idea of getting "screwed" by Mother Nature, period. Whatver happened was already destined to happen the way it transpired. Neither the models nor we knew what was actually going to occur. We may have thought we knew but we really didn't. When you use the word "screwed", you almost talk as if Mother Nature owed you a great storm and wanted to screw you out of it. The models are obviously just projections. Great post and I so agree with you especially with what I quoted. Spot on, Larry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The storm isn't 100% over just yet. No, we didn't as much qpf as predicted by this time and it isn't historic, but many areas did still get ~1" of liquid, which is usually quite impressive in its own right. Regarding the type of precip., no models were giving ATL, itself, snow before ~6 PM today because 850's were still above 0 C. The +1 to +3 C 850's suggested to me IP as the most dominant precip. type in the city and just north and that pretty much happened. This. I think for a lot of us it'll come down to comparisons of some of the wording that was being thrown around like historic and biblical. Those things obviously didn't come to pass, but meterologically it was/is a fantastic winter storm......I mean, how can you complain about a storm like this in Atlanta? We're in Atlanta, it is what it is. Looking forward, not sure I'm buying the upper level low trekking across the state producing convective snow.......I know Robert knows 50,000 times more than I about this, but we're really drying out here.....if anything the echos are collapsing as soon as they enter Georgia from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 How does it look for RDU, WRAL said we gor 5-7 inches today with ice still coming down and possibly more tomorrow And they were calling 1 to 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The GFS has a megadeformation band for NC tomorrow. Good Lord. EDIT: Amounts aren't particularly high (up to 0.5" QPF), but it's very widespread. One could argue the GFS is picking up on some of the smaller details that might lead to embedded higher totals, too. The 00z RGEM has a nice deformation band, too. Looks like it hits GSO pretty good as well as the Rocky Mount area, in particular. How widespread is that on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Exactly!! Try getting 4 inches of straight snow for like 12 hours at 36 degrees, and getting about 2 with temp of 25 and an inch of sleet with 12+ inches forecast !! It hurts! The d-band in the morning could help ease the pain, but I think it goes N of here. Yesterday we had over 8 hrs of snow here in Easley and had 3/4 of an inch at the end of the day. Today we might have had 3 1/2 inches max after 7 hrs of snow and the last 6 hrs of sleet. EPIC BUST as usual here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 BTW, Athens looks to have a band of precipitation that will move right overhead. It's a long band at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Major backfilling for KCAE. I guess good trends if you want more ZR down this way? lol.. Local media said it was over. Not by a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 So I'm just trying to learn about how the models work - Why does the ULL not seem to be represented by the models? It's going to hit someone tonight, whether me or someone else, so shouldn't some spots have high QPF according to the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The precip associated with the upper feature is not looking too impressive at the moment -- definite downward trend there, as well as precip in NE Ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The GFS has a megadeformation band for NC tomorrow. Good Lord. EDIT: Amounts aren't particularly high (up to 0.5" QPF), but it's very widespread. One could argue the GFS is picking up on some of the smaller details that might lead to embedded higher totals, too. The 00z RGEM has a nice deformation band, too. Looks like it hits GSO pretty good as well as the Rocky Mount area, in particular. Hey James what is the timeframe of this band coming through? Does it make it up toward my area or is it staying south of me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This. I think for a lot of us it'll come down to comparisons of some of the wording that was being thrown around like historic and biblical. Those things obviously didn't come to pass, but meterologically it was/is a fantastic winter storm......I mean, how can you complain about a storm like this in Atlanta? We're in Atlanta, it is what it is. Looking forward, not sure I'm buying the upper level low trekking across the state producing convective snow.......I know Robert knows 50,000 times more than I about this, but we're really drying out here.....if anything the echos are collapsing as soon as they enter Georgia from the west. I think this is the problem - yes it was an interesting storm, but it was overhyped and is not catastrophic or historic or really anything in the ATL media market that warrants how it was treated going into it. It's as if everyone forgot why clown maps are called clown maps. We were never going to get that much snow, for pete's sake. But even mets who would normally not do so, drank the koolaid this time and put out personal forecast maps that are just completely busted (for the Deep South - I have no doubt that parts of NC and northward will continue to get epic snow from this). What bothers me a little bit is that people will be less likely to pay attention next time, and we will go back to having to pull people out of cars in ditches in the middle of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hey, this was just a thought, but could we maybe make a different thread for discussion about the busted forecast? For many the event isn't necessarily over so it would be nice to keep this thread about upcoming potential rather than what may have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hey, this was just a thought, but could we maybe make a different thread for discussion about the busted forecast? For many the event isn't necessarily over so it would be nice to keep this thread about upcoming potential rather than what may have been. Agreed....take the "bust" talk to the disgruntled weenie freak out thread located here.............. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42838-the-weenie-freak-out-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gray Mills Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Could we be seeing the transfer of the low? Radar filling in for South Carolina and heading north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Heartbreaking for those east of here... maybe us too in AVL. @WxSouth 57s Writing is clearly on the wall. Models were too fast on upper low. Will pound East TN, SW VA, west NC all night long . Huge snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Heartbreaking for those east of here... maybe us too in AVL. @WxSouth 57s Writing is clearly on the wall. Models were too fast on upper low. Will pound East TN, SW VA, west NC all night long . Huge snows. Why is this heartbreaking for AVL? When he says western NC it will certainly include Asheville and likely up towards Hickory. He even mentions Atlanta isn't totally out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 All I know is what I can see, and the radar don't look good to me to the SW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 All I know is what I can see, and the radar don't look good to me to the SW? That's why I said heartbreaking above for us here. However, I've been wrong before this morning with nowcasting so don't take my words seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Why is this heartbreaking for AVL? When he says western NC it will certainly include Asheville and likely up towards Hickory. He even mentions Atlanta isn't totally out of the game. trust me. Atlanta is out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Agree with Robert, it's becoming obvious heaviest snowfall of the storm will come around late morning to mid day tomorrow. HRRR coming in range, it's impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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