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The Big One - Forecast & Discussion II


Wow

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Robert is honking:

 

For Alabama, northern Georgia, southern and eastern TN, and western Carolinas tonight....this upper low means business. It is producing extreme snowfall rates right now as it slowly crawls through Birmingham. This will slowly pivot northeast slowly overnight and into the western Carolinas, turning the sleet back over to heavy snow in it's wake. Cities to be affected will be Chattanooga, Rome, Atlanta, Athens, Asheville, Greenville-Spartanburg, Charlotte, and Hickory by morning. The core of the spinning upper low will produce extreme snowfall rates and some convective snow is possible at some point on it's trek.

Credit: Stormlover on TW

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Actually looks to setup between the foothills and just east of CLT. Doesn't look as robust as the GFS did but it should do something.

Does the energy that forms the deformation band come from the wrap around circulation, or just the west side of the trough? If it forms close enough to the escarpment would it intensify due to east west upslope?

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Robert seems like a good met, but I'm not sure I buy the ULL slamming Rome/Chat and ATL/AHN...

 

 I know someone asked for my opinion about the area near Birmingham. Whereas I think ATL will get some snow soon from the upper low, it looks to me like it would come from what's below that incredibly intense area near Birmingham because I think that real heavy area will pass to the north. Even so, let's hope that the area below it will be interesting for ATL.

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Robert seems like a good met, but I'm not sure I buy the ULL slamming Rome/Chat and ATL/AHN...

 

I don't buy that either.  NGa forecasts kind of busted and the mets would love to wish some more snow in here tonight.   And convective... well yes it's already done that so it's not a hard call if you are paying attention to all the postings people are making here and elsewhere.

 

It will go northeast of ATL and.. Athens? really? is this thing suddenly going due east? :popcorn:   Rome/Chat might get lucky.  hrrr doesn't show it throwing very much precip out there once it crosses the state line tho, until it gets up into sc/nc and is being properly fed again.

 

I would love to be wrong.

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The Euro and RGEM have strong deformation bands, too.  I think that it's going to happen.  That ought to be interesting. :)

was just looking at euro maps JB posted for tomorrow, he said heavy snow western NC thru hour 36 Def. band.that was for 12z but euro has it over a large area including you and me?

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I know someone asked for my opinion about the area near Birmingham. Whereas I think ATL will get some snow soon from the upper low, it looks to me like it would come from what's below that incredibly intense area near Birmingham because I think that real heavy area will pass to the north. Even so, let's hope that the area below it will be interesting for ATL.

Thanks, I was wondering about that. And whether or not Robert is right about this ULL getting to so many locations, at least he's revived some weenie snow dreams, at least for me.

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 I know someone asked for my opinion about the area near Birmingham. Whereas I think ATL will get some snow soon from the upper low, it looks to me like it would come from what's below that incredibly intense area near Birmingham because I think that real heavy area will pass to the north. Even so, let's hope that the area below it will be interesting for ATL.

Just admit it. We got screwed in Atlanta this storm. Almost no snow when models were showing at least a few inches. It's depressing. None of the models got it right. We didn't get nearly our predicted QPF either. I don't consider this storm historic at all for the Atlanta area. In fact, it was a bust. Won't be a storm I look back on and be excited about if it comes up as an analog.

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Just admit it. We got screwed in Atlanta this storm. Almost no snow when models were showing at least a few inches. It's depressing. None of the models got it right. We didn't get nearly our predicted QPF either. I don't consider this storm historic at all for the Atlanta area. In fact, it was a bust. Won't be a storm I look back on and be excited about if it comes up as an analog.

Not sure about the QPF part. The way the sleet was coming down at my house today at times, had it been snow it would have piled up quickly.

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Just admit it. We got screwed in Atlanta this storm. Almost no snow when models were showing at least a few inches. It's depressing. None of the models got it right. We didn't get nearly our predicted QPF either. I don't consider this storm historic at all for the Atlanta area. In fact, it was a bust. Won't be a storm I look back on and be excited about if it comes up as an analog.

Dude try being in the bullseye of 10-15"+ and only getting 2".

The only saving grace for Oconee and Pickens counties would be for the ULL to sit on us in the morning for a couple hours!

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Just admit it. We got screwed in Atlanta this storm. Almost no snow when models were showing at least a few inches. It's depressing. None of the models got it right. We didn't get nearly our predicted QPF either. I don't consider this storm historic at all for the Atlanta area. In fact, it was a bust. Won't be a storm I look back on and be excited about if it comes up as an analog.

 

Sorry but after the last two winters, this one was at least interesting and produced in the region. No, the 850mb temps robbed us of a historic snowfall but it is what it is. This winter has been awesome compared to the last two.

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Fwiw 

 

Its sleeting like a b here with no ice in sight. NM thats OT.

 

But anyway expect a slight east jog in those forecasted amounts whatever you may have been projected to receive.

 

The Primary LP is forming off the GA coastline south of SAV. With a 1006mb lp off the coast same as the GOM. 

But it is taking a further east track.

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I about had a heart attack when I looked at the 10hr and 12hr 850 map for the nam we are still getting blasted even tomorrow morning. We are easily over a foot here at my house in a Roanoke. Sick rates right now.

Edit: Ehh got a little trigger happy 10" but pouring the snow right now give me like an hour and a half and I will hold true to my statement ;) that ull means business later on tonight/tomorrow morning it will cover a lot of real estate as well looks fun!

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"A large band of heavy snow continues over the North Carolina Mountains. Notice that the snow continues back into northeast Alabama. This is the "upper low" which may spread heavy snow across parts of the area later tonight and tomorrow morning. In the red is an area of mainly heavy sleet and some freezing rain. The yellow dashes toward the bottom are lighting. The sleet will continue in this area for several more hours. And as that upper low approaches, it may change back to heavy snow, including possible thundersnow." GSP

 

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 I know someone asked for my opinion about the area near Birmingham. Whereas I think ATL will get some snow soon from the upper low, it looks to me like it would come from what's below that incredibly intense area near Birmingham because I think that real heavy area will pass to the north. Even so, let's hope that the area below it will be interesting for ATL.

 

Even though I would love to see Robert's graphic come to fruition, the radar doesn't lie, and looking at it right now shows an absolutely massive hole that encompasses most of the northern half of Georgia.  If that upper low does produce anything in that swath that he outlined, it better start some rapid development or else this storm is outta here with little more than passing snow showers.  I'm interested in the qpf totals for this storm for us Georgia folks....it didn't seem like it produced nearly the amount of precipitation that was forecast but we'll see.  I keep looking for redevelopment associated with the low but just don't see anything right now.  :fulltilt:

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"A large band of heavy snow continues over the North Carolina Mountains. Notice that the snow continues back into northeast Alabama. This is the "upper low" which may spread heavy snow across parts of the area later tonight and tomorrow morning. In the red is an area of mainly heavy sleet and some freezing rain. The yellow dashes toward the bottom are lighting. The sleet will continue in this area for several more hours. And as that upper low approaches, it may change back to heavy snow, including possible thundersnow." GSP

 

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That lady's and gentlemen, is why climo wins out 99% of the time. every major HECS storm i've seen in hickory, it sleets for 6 hours in the middle of it.

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That lady's and gentlemen, is why climo wins out 99% of the time. every major HECS storm i've seen in hickory, it sleets for 6 hours in the middle of it.

I have a feeling hky avl and areas of the foothills and mountains are gonna get hammered by ULL snow in the early morning hours. It's closed off over Alabama. Gonna be fun.

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