FLweather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What's strange is there are some readings now above freezing in the mountains, like brasstown which is 34 and blue ridge is 35. It's colder in southeast ga than there. Wonder where this bubble of warmth came from. meanwhile, under 26 degree skies, there is a "raging" sleet storm with freezing drizzle. yummy. Mostly the 850mb low. It has been showing its presence here via soundings over the last few days. But judging by spc meso... caa should be working its way in soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Harv311 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Mostly the 850mb low. It has been showing its presence here via soundings over the last few days. But judging by spc meso... caa should be working its way in soon. What are the models saying about the track of the low and the 0c line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm really not sure the RAP has any value at all -- the 21z RAP sounding for Shelby on the last run show that it's not currently sleeting and it's not going to sleet until at least 4 a.m. Thursday. #worthless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncsled Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The models really missed the strength of the warm nose. Maybe some met can explain what happened.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 it is very strange. a raging ice storm now lol. moderate sleet/zr falling and its getting icy fast. its 28 here now ugh 850's are above freezing over me and almost over Brasstown Bald. Keep in mind, Brasstown Bald is almost at the 850 mb level anyway. The 925's are below freezing as well as the 700's. But there are warmer SE winds at 850 pushing right over north Georgia Look at the different levels: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_meso_analysis_19.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What are the models saying about the track of the low and the 0c line Well... If most believe the model concenus then it will go over the outer banks of NC with the 850 line further west of SLP. I know for a fact the SLP is going further east so the upper levels should follow suit. Overall if you've been following I think the heaviest axis still sets up a tad east of what models have been show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Special UNC Asheville Sounding 4:00pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0096 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...THE CNTRL CAROLINAS AND E-CNTRL GA CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 130040Z - 130615Z SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES OF 0.03-0.10 IN/HR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT AREA OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SHIFTS NEWD FROM SRN GA ATOP PERSISTENT SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION HAD TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN GA INTO CNTRL/SRN SC...LIKELY OWING TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF EXTENSIVE CONVECTION THAT HAD DISSIPATED ALONG THE S ATLANTIC COAST. UPSTREAM...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FORMED IMMEDIATELY N OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE FL BIG BEND. AS ROBUST MID-LEVEL DCVA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING...THIS CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH NELY SURFACE WINDS BACKING TO NLY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE S ATLANTIC COAST...EROSION OF THE SUB-FREEZING LAYER WILL REMAIN SLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. OVER CNTRL NC...INTENSE LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL AID IN AN ABOVE-FREEZING WARM NOSE SAMPLED IN 00Z CHS/MHX RAOBS TO SHIFT NWWD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY LATE EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It looks like the radar is trying to fill back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Has anyone noticed the huge 45-50dbz "cell" over Birmingham? Ground reports of 2"/HR rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Has anyone noticed the huge 45-50dbz "cell" over Birmingham? Ground reports of 2"/HR rates. Yeah. Pretty sure it's going to lift off to the NE. Good news for far NW GA I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It looks like the radar is trying to fill back in I believe you are right, which isn't good for places down your way and further south. Thankfully we just started glazing about an hour ago, but areas to our south have been hit hard. I can't believe the amount of sleet outside, the only thing I can compare it to is a small glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Has anyone noticed the huge 45-50dbz "cell" over Birmingham? Ground reports of 2"/HR rates. I saw that earlier......while it probably won't hold together, it does still look,like it's shifting more east than NE, so the northern parts of Atlanta may get in it. There's still a lot of moisture to our SW, just not filling in but still a ways to go. Finally all snow here the last 45 minutes or so........I already have about .75 inches on top of all the ice accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I saw that earlier......while it probably won't hold together, it does still look,like it's shifting more east than NE, so the northern parts of Atlanta may get in it. There's still a lot of moisture to our SW, just not filling in but still a ways to go. Finally all snow here the last 45 minutes or so........I already have about .75 inches on top of all the ice accum. sweet! so that .75 is from the recent changeover? maybe there is hope for a little more snow after all lol. radar looks pretty good if we can just get the atmosphere to cool down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Some of the changeover to sleet and North Carolina was due to a drop and precipitation rates. Models showed little to no moisture in the snow growth region through the afternoon, so it was relying on intense uplift to generate snow. It will be interesting to see what happens with these next areas of heavier precip moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 sweet! so that .75 is from the recent changeover? maybe there is hope for a little more snow after all lol. radar looks pretty good if we can just get the atmosphere to cool down We'll get some more.......doesn't look like we have to worry about soundings any longer. Should be mostly snow for everyone north of Atlanta by now. If we can get the deformation band to rotate through here and strengthen that would be a serious bonus! Still awhule to go with this one. The post mortem on this winter storm will be really interesting.....one of us needs to start a thread tomorrow with a poll on it saying bust or not and give reasoning. Would be pretty interesting to hear thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 21z SREF has a nice deform band starting somewhere around CLT and then just exploding east over RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Under heavy returns here in Rutherford County and it continues to be IP. But, that also looks to be moving eastward. Some of the changeover to sleet and North Carolina was due to a drop and precipitation rates. Models showed little to no moisture in the snow growth region through the afternoon, so it was relying on intense uplift to generate snow. It will be interesting to see what happens with these next areas of heavier precip moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 21z SREF has a nice deform band starting somewhere around CLT and then just exploding east over RDU. The Euro and RGEM have strong deformation bands, too. I think that it's going to happen. That ought to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Biggest snowstorm in north Birmingham since 1993. Easy. 3-4"/HR snowfall rates per local mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like a deform band setting up shop just east of CLT on the 00z NAM @12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 21z SREF has a nice deform band starting somewhere around CLT and then just exploding east over RDU. How wide is this def. band? Does it move N from CLT, NE,...? Thanks ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Actually looks to setup between the foothills and just east of CLT. Doesn't look as robust as the GFS did but it should do something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wow GSO to RDU jackpot on the deform band on the NAM. Can it just move a little south please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The NAM's deformation band honestly reminded me of the 12z Euro's deformation band. Interesting... Total crushjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The NAM's deformation band honestly reminded me of the 12z Euro's deformation band. Interesting... Total crushjob. I'm really angry with it. It's crushing alright. Crushing my weenie dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wow GSO to RDU jackpot on the deform band on the NAM. Can it just move a little south please?That's been the trend, so you may be in business. BL temps will be a problem, but I'll be happy to just watch the flakes fly again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Robert is honking: For Alabama, northern Georgia, southern and eastern TN, and western Carolinas tonight....this upper low means business. It is producing extreme snowfall rates right now as it slowly crawls through Birmingham. This will slowly pivot northeast slowly overnight and into the western Carolinas, turning the sleet back over to heavy snow in it's wake. Cities to be affected will be Chattanooga, Rome, Atlanta, Athens, Asheville, Greenville-Spartanburg, Charlotte, and Hickory by morning. The core of the spinning upper low will produce extreme snowfall rates and some convective snow is possible at some point on it's trek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What's strange is there are some readings now above freezing in the mountains, like brasstown which is 34 and blue ridge is 35. It's colder in southeast ga than there. Wonder where this bubble of warmth came from. meanwhile, under 26 degree skies, there is a "raging" sleet storm with freezing drizzle. yummy. It looks like the 12Z Euro and GFS did have Brasstown Bald's 850 near +1 C fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Robert is honking: For Alabama, northern Georgia, southern and eastern TN, and western Carolinas tonight....this upper low means business. It is producing extreme snowfall rates right now as it slowly crawls through Birmingham. This will slowly pivot northeast slowly overnight and into the western Carolinas, turning the sleet back over to heavy snow in it's wake. Cities to be affected will be Chattanooga, Rome, Atlanta, Athens, Asheville, Greenville-Spartanburg, Charlotte, and Hickory by morning. The core of the spinning upper low will produce extreme snowfall rates and some convective snow is possible at some point on it's trek. Robert seems like a good met, but I'm not sure I buy the ULL slamming Rome/Chat and ATL/AHN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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