Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

The Big One - Forecast & Discussion II


Wow

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 313
  • Created
  • Last Reply

850 low moving across and underneath CLT... currently on the NNW side of it ... looking to get into the heavy precip tonight after it's passed us and the 850mb winds shift from the SE to the N.

Where do you see that? The SPC analysis has it well SW of CLT and the RAP moves it slowly over NW central SC and into central NC by 12z tomorrow. You have a good bit of time before it passes.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

850 freezing line oh so close here.  Should keep creeping south ever so slightly......hopefully a change over to snow soon.

believe it or not, the rap turns me over to all snow in an hour or two (or at least cold enough for all snow..there is a matter of if there is enough moisture in the snow growth region at times). Even now it looks like it's almost ready to change over..i have those big glazed over/refroze flakes falling.

 

the rap  then has it snowing across the far north over toward my way  lightly to moderate at times for the rest of the night and into the morning hours. I'm finding that a bit hard to believe but it certainly has trended better here as the tail end of the comma head swings through slowly later on. regardless, the latest run has 0.50 to 0.60 falling as all snow or something frozen. That would make up for the painful screwjob yesterday. I won't count on it though.

 

take it for what it's worth though

 

RAP_255_2014021221_F18_PCPIN_18_HR.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

believe it or not, the rap turns me over to all snow in an hour or two (or at least cold enough for all snow..there is a matter of if there is enough moisture in the snow growth region at times). Even now it looks like it's almost ready to change over..i have those big glazed over/refroze flakes falling.

 

 

 

RAP had me as snow until around 8 PM. In fact p-types are still saying snow until then on the latest run. Been sleeting with light snow mixing in for the last two hours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

RAP had me as snow until around 8 PM. In fact p-types are still saying snow until then on the latest run. Been sleeting with light snow mixing in for the last two hours.

 

Surprised the radar is so meager over in your area, wasn't expecting that big a lull, it looks like it will get cranking in a little bit though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

RAP had me as snow until around 8 PM. In fact p-types are still saying snow until then on the latest run. Been sleeting with light snow mixing in for the last two hours.

It was off last night here too but just by a half a degree if you believed it's sounding. It really was more like it was off by 20 miles or so as areas 20 miles northeast of me started as snow. I'm more interested in it's precip output than soundings this go around though because it will eventually get cold enough here.  Last night it was a matter of trying to beat the warm air advection....and for the entire night the waa won. However, the rap did win one early in the morning because it had been insistent on it changing to snow here when the gfs/nam did not. And sure enough it did for a while.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21z is worse 

 

 

 

I think the Snow has stopped for Charlotte and Mooresville and we should receive Sleet and maybe freezing rain now. 

 

Yeah, gsp has severely cut my totals, put in sleet and fzrn in the forecast, and pulled all my hope to reach my minimum 6" goal.  Pretty big bust actually, but I'm sure that will be discussed later.  I'll take my 3.5 and enjoy while it's here.  Best in the last 3 years!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not sure why everyone in CLT is surprised by the changeover. The models have shown significant warming in the mid layers for many runs now. I'm not sure why y'all were expecting to stay all snow, especially with the 850 low passing nearby.

I'm not surprised, I knew I was right on the line where I am in CLT as to possibly being able to keep at least some snow falling mixed with the sleet.  30 miles up hwy 16 and it wlll possibly stay all snow, if not that far.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21z HRRR precip from 6pm-7am...that dry slot...as long as it stays south of Harnett I'm happy but getting a bit worried, we can't rely on a deform band like some of ya

 

 

Wow, that's quite a bit more precipitation. We've already had 4.5 inches and that looks like it's going to give us almost an inch more liquid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not sure why everyone in CLT is surprised by the changeover. The models have shown significant warming in the mid layers for many runs now. I'm not sure why y'all were expecting to stay all snow, especially with the 850 low passing nearby.

 

Well I was hoping for 6 inches prior to the changeover as forecasted, not 3.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm trying to understand the timeframe with this graphic; please help me with this:

 

If it was initialized at 19:00 UTC, isn't that 2:00 pm ET today?   YES

And if it is valid at 10:00 UTC, isn't that 5:00 am EST tomorrow?   YES

So, does that imply it includes most of what is on the ground now? (At least in NC)   Not sure, but Hickory had less than an inch at 2 PM.

No disrespect, just want to be sure I'm reading this right... Thanks!   No disrespect came across in your post at all.  Great questions, and I wish I was more of a pro on these graphs to help you out more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

while areas to your south are getting sleet and some frozen mist stuff :huh:

i know, wild eh?  this has been one weird storm to say the least.  i keep seeing the rap (which is usually pretty good around here) and other stuff, but am so confused right now i dont know what to believe :lmao:  i would love to see another burst of snow.  the sleet didnt surprise, this freezing rain did i will admit

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i know, wild eh?  this has been one weird storm to say the least.  i keep seeing the rap (which is usually pretty good around here) and other stuff, but am so confused right now i dont know what to believe :lmao:  i would love to see another burst of snow.  the sleet didnt surprise, this freezing rain did i will admit

What's strange is there are some readings now above freezing in the mountains, like brasstown which is 34 and blue ridge is 35. It's colder in southeast ga than there.  Wonder where this bubble of warmth came from.

 

meanwhile, under 26 degree skies, there is a "raging" sleet storm with freezing drizzle. yummy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What's strange is there are some readings now above freezing in the mountains, like brasstown which is 34 and blue ridge is 35. It's colder in southeast ga than there.  Wonder where this bubble of warmth came from.

 

meanwhile, under 26 degree skies, there is a "raging" sleet storm with freezing drizzle. yummy.

 

it is very strange. a raging ice storm now lol.  moderate sleet/zr falling and its getting icy fast.  its 28 here now ugh

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What's strange is there are some readings now above freezing in the mountains, like brasstown which is 34 and blue ridge is 35. It's colder in southeast ga than there.  Wonder where this bubble of warmth came from.

 

meanwhile, under 26 degree skies, there is a "raging" sleet storm with freezing drizzle. yummy.

 

Maybe WAA over the CAD wedge? That would suggest the depth of the cold pool is diminishing down your way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...