packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That is interesting. Remember when it was driving the low nearly up I-95 this mid-morning? LOL. Its NW bias in the LR is serious business, I guess. Yeah and it's still 18 hours away, per it's NW bias, I would expect this to move a little more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Why does the storm system look like such a mess at the moment on the radar? Is it beginning the phase or low transfer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Question for a met, is the sleet nw of 85 expected to transition back to snow? At one time some people said there could be an ice period but it may transition back. When? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Question for a met, is the sleet nw of 85 expected to transition back to snow? At one time some people said there could be an ice period but it may transition back. When? Which state? I-85 is pretty long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thoughts on how this is lining up with the modeling? (Time sensitive) Latest RAP has the SLP officially over HAT at 10am tomorrow. It's been ticking east on every run and it's still 18 hours from being over HAT, I guess it could shift back west though. I think its a safe bet to say this SLP staying off the coast. Which the real fun and frustration begins... All those model runs showing the heaviest axis of precip. Shift it east a bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think its a safe bet to say this SLP staying off the coast. Which the real fun and frustration begins... All those model runs showing the heaviest axis of precip. Shift it east a bit too. The 21z RAP must be broken, look at how far the SLP is off the coast in 12 hours and look how much slower it is. This can't be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think its a safe bet to say this SLP staying off the coast. Which the real fun and frustration begins... All those model runs showing the heaviest axis of precip. Shift it east a bit too. Hope it means less ice and more snow, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hope it means less ice and more snow, too. That's what I'm counting on. Have a good feeling about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 21z RAP must be broken, look at how far the SLP is off the coast in 12 hours and look how much slower it is. This can't be right. Reverse Carolina Crusher. Instead of a dramatic shift west, you all get the shift east! I would definitely discount it for now, but we'll see. Things have seemingly shifted east some, but that seems a bit excessive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Reverse Carolina Crusher. Instead of a dramatic shift west, you all get the shift east! LOL, you guys are still going to jackpot 12"+ snow tonight. We may get dry slotted, have to see how this all sets up in a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 LOL, you guys are still going to jackpot 12"+ snow tonight. We may get dry slotted, have to see how this all sets up in a little while. I'll take that RAP run, BTW. That's around 1.3" QPF still to go here, LOL. It's not quite as much as what the Euro showed, but I'm not picky! We'll see if it's on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 the ne ga and upstate jackpots for 8+ has suddenly taken a u-turn. most of us seem to be getting freezing rain now from moto in dahlonega to here to the upstate oconeewx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 21z RAP must be broken, look at how far the SLP is off the coast in 12 hours and look how much slower it is. This can't be right. I don't know man.. As Ive said the wedge is stout and no matter what a LP is not going into an established wedge. It will go around it but not into it. The inverted trough axis that has been across the GOM,FL off the GA,SC,NC since last night. Which then indicated to me the track and still does. Once the SLP crosses FL with in a few hours it will most likely not touch dry land. Hope it means less ice and more snow, too. That's what I'm counting on. Have a good feeling about it. If if it does come to fruition later stays completely offshore then the upper level features will follow suit... slightly east. Also there is a dryslot coming up the 95 corridor which will limit the icing till the coma head swings through tomorrow. Thats my 2 pennies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here's the most recent HRRR run with total accumulated snowfall at hour 15. This would be on top of what is already on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Widespread reports of a sleet changeover in Rutherford/Cleveland/Gaston counties. Not sure what I see is going to change it back to snow before the heart of the deform band arrives -- in quite a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here's the most recent HRRR run with total accumulated snowfall at hour 15. This would be on top of what is already on the ground. [sNIPPED IMAGE] 12-18" more (and before the deformation band of doom tomorrow)? Does that take into account mixing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 And, here's the last frame of simulated reflectivity on the latest RAP, hour 18. You can see the formation of the deformation band in the morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here's the most recent HRRR run with total accumulated snowfall at hour 15. This would be on top of what is already on the ground. Got about 5" right now with a lull of sleet/snow right now. Looking forward to my additional 12-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The band in Rutherford county is 80% an. Daddy flakes ! It is trying to change to all an' wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Harv311 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 LOL, you guys are still going to jackpot 12"+ snow tonight. We may get dry slotted, have to see how this all sets up in a little while. If i was not seeing this myself i would swear. People are drawing maps just for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Generally speaking, how accurate is the RAP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 850 freezing line oh so close here. Should keep creeping south ever so slightly......hopefully a change over to snow soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 WRAL Greg Fischel just said from now thru most of the night and part of tomorrow will be freezing rain in the triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like storms in the gulf are cutting off moisture flow again. In this case, I'm okay with that since it likely is contributing to the further east track and a lessened chance for severe ice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I hope Raleigh gets a little more snow from the deformation band tomorrow... Looks like perhaps another 1-2 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here's the most recent HRRR run with total accumulated snowfall at hour 15. This would be on top of what is already on the ground. I'm trying to understand the timeframe with this graphic; please help me with this: If it was initialized at 19:00 UTC, isn't that 2:00 pm ET today? And if it is valid at 10:00 UTC, isn't that 5:00 am EST tomorrow? So, does that imply it includes most of what is on the ground now? (At least in NC) No disrespect, just want to be sure I'm reading this right... Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 WRAL Greg Fischel just said from now thru most of the night and part of tomorrow will be freezing rain in the triangle. Hopefully he is very wrong on that. Don't think they've been very right on a whole lot lately as it is, so hopefully this is just another thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Go with HPC...they are rarely wrong PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD420 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014VALID 00Z THU FEB 13 2014 - 00Z SUN FEB 16 2014...MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WITH WIDESPREAD SOCIETAL IMPACTSCONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...POISED TO BEGIN TRACKINGUP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT.WHILE MINOR DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING/TRACK REMAIN...THELATEST MODELS HAVE COME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 1WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEEPEN ANDTRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST-MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE PERIOD.OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARMAIR ADVECTION...LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASINGDIVERGENCE ALOFT AFFORDED BY RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICSWILL ENCOURAGE A SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION...WHILE THERMALPROFILES SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR MID ATLANTIC/CENTRALAPPALACHIANS TONIGHT...EXTENDING UP INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERNNEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL WARMING AFFORDED BY STRONGONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL AFFORD A CHANGEOVER OR MIX WITHSLEET/RAIN...FOLLOWED BY A WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT WHICH IS EXPECTEDTO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THEGFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT FOLLOWING THIS LULL MANY AREAS WILL SEEPRECIPITATION REDEVELOPING AND FALLING IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITHADDITIONAL HEAVY AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MIDLEVEL CENTER AND THE ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION BAND/COMMA HEADPRECIPITATION. HEAVIEST DAY 1 SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TOLINE UP NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR BACK INTO THE BLUERIDGE WHERE A MODERATE RISK FOR A FOOT OF MORE IS INDICATED ON DAY1. MEANWHILE SIGNIFICANT ICING REMAINS A CONCERN...PARTICULARLYACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WHERE A MODERATE-HIGH RISK FOR ANADDITIONAL QUARTER-INCH OR MORE IS FOCUSED ON DAY 1. BY DAY 2 THEHEAVY SNOW THREAT WILL CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...PARTICULARLYACROSS EASTERN UPSTATE NY INTO NEW ENGLAND AS THE AFOREMENTIONEDWARM ADVECTION FOLLOWED BY THE DEFORMATION BAND PRECIPITATIONIMPACTS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON DAY 2 AREEXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE A FOOT ORADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS DO START TO DEPARTFROM ONE ANOTHER ON DAY 2...MOST NOTABLY THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH HASTRENDED SLOWER AND IN TURN DOES NOT DRAW THE WARM AIR INTO COASTALNEW ENGLAND AS QUICKLY AS ITS PREVIOUS RUN OR THE MAJORITY OF THE12Z GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN SOME HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ASNOTED IN THE PMDHMD...THERE WAS NO CORRESPONDING TREND TOWARD AMORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION TO SUPPORT THIS CHANGE IN THE ECMWF...ANDWLACKING SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER 12Z GUIDANCE OPTED NOT TO PLACEMUCH WEIGHT ON THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW...LEANING INSTEAD MORECLOSELY ON THE GFS/00Z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 850 freezing line oh so close here. Should keep creeping south ever so slightly......hopefully a change over to snow soon. 850 low moving across and underneath CLT... currently on the NNW side of it ... looking to get into the heavy precip tonight after it's passed us and the 850mb winds shift from the SE to the N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 With the 850 low moving through charlotte will the sleet transition back to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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