CherokeeGA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Courtesy of Wright-Weather I'll believe this when I see it, for GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 HRRR people....what is the difference in the HRRR-primary and the HRRR-dev1. The dev1 is listed as "alternative" I assume just some different Algorithms they are using. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Pressures continue to drop out ahead of the main SLP. All indications still point this off shore along the trough axis. No in land Hatteras runner, no coastal hugger but eventually over the Gulf Stream. Going to be very interesting what happens when it hits the GS. Pressures continue to drop out ahead of the main SLP. All indications still point this off shore along the trough axis. No in land Hatteras runner, no coastal hugger but eventually over the Gulf Stream. Going to be very interesting what happens when it hits the GS. Hey Cold and packbacker...... what'd I tell you guys about the wedge kicking this bad boy east? Straight up the GS just east of Hatteras and boomsville for ALL of central NC (including y'all). That would make sense. It's currently 24 degrees F here in Southern Wake County and we're getting really heavy snow. It'll be interesting to see if any part of the warm nose makes it in here now. I've seen totals go up. I know Allan said he put out his last map but would if he would change it! Yeah, knew this bad boy would go off the coast. WRAL saying the sleet lune is coming up. I wonder when the low gets off the coast and bombs if the temps will drop and we will get more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The red lines on that map are a little off. Following SPC mesoanalysis graphics, the strongest pressure falls right now are over Gainsville and Lake City, Florida. The low will move inland next few hours, similar to what the 12Z Euro is suggesting. From there it inland over the coastal plain of South Carolina, and then eventually over Pamlico Sound, NC. I don't see this getting over the Gulf Stream. Pressure falls don't support it. I realize you're a met. Appreciate your opinion... but Ive got to disagree. I do realize the greatest drop is over N Fl. I think the wedge is too strong atm to support a track right along or even over the coast. Most of the day there has been a trough axis extending south of Jacksonville, FL from the main LP. With the surface front off the coast. I seriously doubt the LP is going to come into the wedge but be forced to go around it. But we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 All these hrrr and all thes very short range models, the rap, and stuff keep showing these insane bullseye totals of 14-18 inches from GSP up to Shelby. I just don't see this happening !? What are they seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 larry check out the rap. I mentioned it in the other thread but it's going to be quickly drowned out by nc posters. It more or less agrees with the euro on those amounts. Thanks, Lookout. So, there's still a long way to go for ATL. Steady and pretty impressive sleet now falling here in Dunwoody with 28.8. OK, I did just do a reanalysis of the 0Z Euro and it had nearly 1" of qpf through 1 PM today in NE ATL vs. the actual precip. of 0.55". So, it did, indeed, underperform vs. the 0Z Euro for that period, mainly because of underperforming ~7AM-10 AM. Regardless, the 12Z Euro has 0.60" to go. If that verifies, it would be ~1.20" of total qpf and ~5" of IP/S, still a major event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 All these hrrr and all thes very short range models, the rap, and stuff keep showing these insane bullseye totals of 14-18 inches from GSP up to Shelby. I just don't see this happening !? What are they seeing? Agree. All the radars and info point to less for our area and more for east and south. Already many reports of 4-6 inches in areas not even supposed to get that. GSP to Shelby supposed to get the most but has the least. Is the deformation band expected of over this area? A model above showed SE of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I realize you're a met. Appreciate your opinion... but Ive got to disagree. I do realize the greatest drop is over N Fl. I think the wedge is too strong atm to support a track right along or even over the coast. Most of the day there has been a trough axis extending south of Jacksonville, FL from the main LP. With the surface front off the coast. I seriously doubt the LP is going to come into the wedge but be forced to go around it. But we shall see. The track will definitely be right along the coastline. i'm not sure it will be inland too far, except at perhaps a few points along the way(slp doesn't move in a straight line). that said, the wedge can be eroded since it's not being reinforced any longer. the negatively tilting troughw will allow ample WAA tonight/tomorrow morning until the 850/700mb lows slides east of the area. strong east winds can destroy weak CAD along the coastline. i think raleigh is about as far west as the 32 2m isotherm makes it, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thanks, Lookout. So, there's still a long way to go for ATL. Steady and pretty impressive sleet now falling here in Dunwoody with 28.8. OK, I did just do a reanalysis of the 0Z Euro and it had nearly 1" of qpf through 1 PM today in NE ATL vs. the actual precip. of 0.55". So, it did, indeed, underperform vs. the 0Z Euro for that period, mainly because of underperforming ~7AM-10 AM. Regardless, the 12Z Euro has 0.60" to go. If that verifies, it would be ~1.15: total qpf, still a major event. Radar actually looks pretty damn impressive over west ga. I would expect that to slowly pivot east and certainly things have filled in back west. So it's going to be an interesting night for many. I just hope it stays sleet. There has been a NASTY period of freezing drizzle, mist, and light rain here. It's been coming down in sheets for a while. Everything is encrusted in ice, driveway is impassible, and I don't like seeing this much wind with the trees quickly becoming weighted down now. At the moment it looks to be sleet that is coming down in sheets with this wind. It's hard to tell a lot of times because it changes so much...but it's strong enough that it actually reduces visibilities quite a lot. I'm hoping the deformation zone/back end will surprise us. Sometimes you can get surprises..though I would suspect you have a far greater chance than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Should I believe the Euro's depiction of the deformation band hammering over GSO, INT, and points north and south all day tomorrow? It drops 2.3" QPF and aside from a brief changeover to sleet, it's all-snow (and probably decent ratios with the deformation band). That might be like 18" of snow. Historic. We'd make a run at the greatest snowfall on record (20.0" in 1937). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Perhaps a met or one of our very knowledgeable non-mets can comment about the recent EURO and HRRR snowfall maps that both indicate a decent amount of frozen precipitation for the south central parts of Georgia (below Macon). I know these maps can include all forms of frozen precip, but they both seem to be quite generous compared to our NWS forecast and radar trends. Nothing as of now seems to be screaming "frozen precip" for this area so I will defer to those who can interpret the model data. Thanks for all of the great insight and play-by-play! And to those who are getting thumped with snow, enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thanks, Lookout. So, there's still a long way to go for ATL. Steady and pretty impressive sleet now falling here in Dunwoody with 28.8. OK, I did just do a reanalysis of the 0Z Euro and it had nearly 1" of qpf through 1 PM today in NE ATL vs. the actual precip. of 0.55". So, it did, indeed, underperform vs. the 0Z Euro for that period, mainly because of underperforming ~7AM-10 AM. Regardless, the 12Z Euro has 0.60" to go. If that verifies, it would be ~1.15 of total qpf and ~5" of IP/S, still a major event. Not liking the position of the deform band at all for Atlanta...it seems too far north for us to get hit good...we may possibly be fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Not liking the position of the deform band at all for Atlanta...it seems too far north for us to get hit good...we may possibly be fringed. In the meantime, the sleet is quite impressive right now here in Dunwoody and has been for a good half hour or so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gray Mills Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just curious where most people think the deform band will setup and what time frame? Thursday am? Would deform be all snow or could it mix? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Should I believe the Euro's depiction of the deformation band hammering over GSO, INT, and points north and south all day tomorrow? It drops 2.3" QPF and aside from a brief changeover to sleet, it's all-snow (and probably decent ratios with the deformation band). That might be like 18" of snow. Historic. We'd make a run at the greatest snowfall on record (20.0" in 1937). I was just gonna ask this question. From reading I thought it would be over by mid-morning here, but your post earlier floored me. I wanna know this also. That would be unreal if the band set up over us AND it doesn't stop snowing till late tomorrow. Amazing if it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Below are some daily snowfall records for select cities: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 from Wxsouth facebook page, posted 1 minute ago: GFS and European model are in good agreement on the big snow totals. It's overall location looks ok, not perfect but about right. Some 15" amounts are coming to part of VA, NC it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Harv311 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just curious where most people think the deform band will setup and what time frame? Thursday am? Would deform be all snow or could it mix? Thanks Im new to this but, would you guys think that its setting up Gso, Int NE piedmont. mixing would be defendant on move meant of this low. Thanks again to james lookout wow for making this high school student learn edit: *movement of low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So would the low going farther east mean more snow and less ice, or just keep things going longer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 In the meantime, the sleet is quite impressive right now here in Dunwoody and has been for a good half hour or so! There is literally almost white out conditions here with a combination of blowing sleet, frozen mist and frozen drizzle. It's coming down in sheets and is piling up quick. I said it before but I will again, I've never seen anything quite like this. It honestly feels and looks like a blizzard out there with winds gusting to 30mph, white out like conditions, and this stuff coming down in sheets and hitting you like a sand blaster. Also, athens, atlanta, and gainesville are all reporting light snow. I wonder if they are getting this stuff and calling it snow? Because i'd be surprised if it was snowing in athens and atlanta with 850s of plus 2. Hell it's so heavy now there really isn't much difference between it and "real snow". Athens is reporting ice fog too. What an awesome weather day lol radar is looking better and better for north ga too. Hopefully the threat for additional freezing precip is lessoning given the current conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Should I believe the Euro's depiction of the deformation band hammering over GSO, INT, and points north and south all day tomorrow? It drops 2.3" QPF and aside from a brief changeover to sleet, it's all-snow (and probably decent ratios with the deformation band). That might be like 18" of snow. Historic. We'd make a run at the greatest snowfall on record (20.0" in 1937). why no, because it's just a bit to far east, now move it west about 30-40 miles and yes you can believe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benholio Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Also, athens, atlanta, and gainesville are all reporting light snow. I wonder if they are getting this stuff and calling it snow? Because i'd be surprised if it was snowing in athens and atlanta with 850s of plus 2. Snow (and a little bit of rain) has mixed in with the sleet here in the northern suburbs, but sleet has been the predominant type by far. Heavy sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What is the time frame for the deform band? As of now, it looks like it would set up in NW NC and SE VA based on the current radar returns. However, I'm probably way ahead of time in my thinking, especially if it's supposed to ramp up around 0-6Z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The latest SREF plumes have come in. The mean at KHKY is just a tick under 15 inches (with one member at 30 inches)! (Of course that 30-inch member skews the mean...) KHKY has the largest mean that I could find in NC. Also, Robert Gamble has a new update on WxSouth.com for those of you that are subscribers. The good stuff for the western parts is yet to come overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 There is literally almost white out conditions here with a combination of blowing sleet, frozen mist and frozen drizzle. It's coming down in sheets and is piling up quick. I said it before but I will again, I've never seen anything quite like this. It honestly feels and looks like a blizzard out there with winds gusting to 30mph, white out like conditions, and this stuff coming down in sheets and hitting you like a sand blaster. Also, athens, atlanta, and gainesville are all reporting light snow. I wonder if they are getting this stuff and calling it snow? Because i'd be surprised if it was snowing in athens and atlanta with 850s of plus 2. Hell it's so heavy now there really isn't much difference between it and "real snow". Athens is reporting ice fog too. What an awesome weather day lol radar is looking better and better for north ga too. Hopefully the threat for additional freezing precip is lessoning given the current conditions. I've seen several reports of snow now on the west side of Atlanta......possible those reports are either erroneous with excited people or the backside of the storm is starting to pivot now. We are getting pummeled with heavy sleet over here and I'm only about 10 minutes south of Gainesville....I can't be too far away from the sleet snow line I would think. I'm too afraid to even look at the radar...I want this lasting during the dark when it'll really pile up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 There is literally almost white out conditions here with a combination of blowing sleet, frozen mist and frozen drizzle. It's coming down in sheets and is piling up quick. I said it before but I will again, I've never seen anything quite like this. It honestly feels and looks like a blizzard out there with winds gusting to 30mph, white out like conditions, and this stuff coming down in sheets and hitting you like a sand blaster. Also, athens, atlanta, and gainesville are all reporting light snow. I wonder if they are getting this stuff and calling it snow? Because i'd be surprised if it was snowing in athens and atlanta with 850s of plus 2. Hell it's so heavy now there really isn't much difference between it and "real snow". Athens is reporting ice fog too. What an awesome weather day lol radar is looking better and better for north ga too. Hopefully the threat for additional freezing precip is lessoning given the current conditions. oh please tell me that you mean freezing rain and not snow or sleet lol. same conditions here, feels like bb's on your face. the winds are howling and was groggy after a nap til i saw radar - who it is lit up and moving this way again. almost looks like its pivoting a little on the wider scale (of course i could be completely wrong). i agree, so far this has been one freaking awesome storm and it looks like more of "something" to come (we have the gamut going on here between sleet, snow, and sheets of something, freezing mist maybe? trees are creaking a little) I've seen several reports of snow now on the west side of Atlanta......possible those reports are either erroneous with excited people or the backside of the storm is starting to pivot now. We are getting pummeled with heavy sleet over here and I'm only about 10 minutes south of Gainesville....I can't be too far away from the sleet snow line I would think. I'm too afraid to even look at the radar...I want this lasting during the dark when it'll really pile up. go ahead, look. you know you want to. lol radar looks fantastic right now, n ga, n al and back towards the MS/AL line has precip. might be a hint of a pivot. monster echos heading to n ga again am guess heavy sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The latest SREF plumes have come in. The mean at KHKY is just a tick under 15 inches (with one member at 30 inches)! (Of course that 30-inch member skews the mean...) KHKY has the largest mean that I could find in NC. Also, Robert Gamble has a new update on WxSouth.com for those of you that are subscribers. The good stuff for the western parts is yet to come overnight. Was Robert still pretty bullish for the western ends? There's a lot of cliff diving going on around here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC314 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014.SYNOPSIS...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...AS OF 245 PM...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOWS A WELL DEFINED COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA...SOURCED FROM 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FL...LOWERING TO 1009 MB. RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE ANOTHER COOLING CLOUD TOPS WEST TO AL. 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLVL JET...WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6Z. THE LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH A POOL OF HIGH PW...SHOWN ON THE BLENDED PW...SUPPORTING A SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL BANDS OF -EPV WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE FORMATION OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS. A LARGE FIELD OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAKING 12Z THURS. THE OVERLAP OF LLVL AND MID LEVEL FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN THE GREATEST SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A VERY INTERESTING DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND 18Z THURS...PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF QPF. THE MESOSCALE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE. I WILL NOD TO THE SPECTRAL MODELS AND CONTINUE POPS WELL INTO THURS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LESSER QPF. OVERALL...ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.9 ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY.PRECIP TYPE IS COMPLICATED BY SUSPECT ABSENCE OF ICE NUCLEI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE GFS AND NAM. GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS MOISTURE AND OVERALL COLD LLVL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...I BELIEVE THAT ICE NUCLEI WILL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...DOPPLER VELOCITY AND DUAL POL AGREE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH DEVELOPING AN H85 WARM NOSE OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. THE WARMING ALONG THE EASTERN TIER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...YIELDING A BLEND OF SLEET AND FZRA. EVENTUALLY...DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY...AIDING DRYING FROM SW TO NE. POPS WILL DECREASE WITHIN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...HOLDING ON THE LONGEST ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR.THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS ON TRACK. I WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST ACCUMS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OVERLAP OF DEEP MOISTURE...SYNOPTIC FORCING...AND POTENTIAL BANDING. The latest SREF plumes have come in. The mean at KHKY is just a tick under 15 inches (with one member at 30 inches)! (Of course that 30-inch member skews the mean...) KHKY has the largest mean that I could find in NC. Also, Robert Gamble has a new update on WxSouth.com for those of you that are subscribers. The good stuff for the western parts is yet to come overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Snow (and a little bit of rain) has mixed in with the sleet here in the northern suburbs, but sleet has been the predominant type by far. Heavy sleet. Good deal. thanks. I've seen several reports of snow now on the west side of Atlanta......possible those reports are either erroneous with excited people or the backside of the storm is starting to pivot now. We are getting pummeled with heavy sleet over here and I'm only about 10 minutes south of Gainesville....I can't be too far away from the sleet snow line I would think. I'm too afraid to even look at the radar...I want this lasting during the dark when it'll really pile up. Oh it's going to last until dark it would seem. It's moving pretty slow..nothing like last night/this morning. I wouldn't think you are either based on the spc meso page/rap. You would be happy if you saw the radar, especially the southeast view/precip type radar. It's quite impressive. oh please tell me that you mean freezing rain and not snow or sleet lol. same conditions here, feels like bb's on your face. the winds are howling and was groggy after a nap til i saw radar - who it is lit up and moving this way again. almost looks like its pivoting a little on the wider scale (of course i could be completely wrong). i agree, so far this has been one freaking awesome storm and it looks like more of "something" to come (we have the gamut going on here between sleet, snow, and sheets of something, freezing mist maybe? trees are creaking a little) go ahead, look. you know you want to. lol radar looks fantastic right now, n ga, n al and back towards the MS/AL line has precip. might be a hint of a pivot. monster echos heading to n ga again am guess heavy sleet. Now tell me you aren't one of the great unwashed and don't know the difference between frozen and freezing precipitation I want snow, not ice. Plus I don't want to lose power and I have just enough ice on the trees to make it really pretty with the snow. Whatever this stuff is, it's accumulating at about 0.25 to 0.50 per hour here. I'll walk outside and my footprint will be filled up in an hour. But i'm on the eastern fringe of that precip to the west and although I would suspect it would pivot east, it's doing it pretty slow which worries me a bit that it will move by to the north and not get much of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Was Robert still pretty bullish for the western ends? There's a lot of cliff diving going on around here... Things look good for the western portions, but I can't give away his specifics. You can learn a lot from his Facebook page, though. It's encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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