packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 16z rap brings the surface low inside the coastal plain. Definitely trending to a coastal hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Euro at 12 appears further south east with the low compared to 00z. Hard to tell though as the system is a little faster and last nights run had a very elongated low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 @24 Weaker low on this run. Appears to be maybe a hair inland but not by much it's just larger and not as wound up if that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Euro at 12 appears further south east with the low compared to 00z. Hard to tell though as the system is a little faster and last nights run had a very elongated low. lol at hr24 held steady ....still slams the upstate.....still looks to be all snow based on 850's. may be a warm nose at lower levels i'm not seeing but as you said .....it is weaker than lat n ights run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 @30 nice deform band showing up from around HKY to CLT and central NC. Even if there is mixing that alone would give a healthy six inches it looks like. As always with map below the usual stuff applies about mixing and totals blah blah blah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Pressures continue to drop out ahead of the main SLP. All indications still point this off shore along the trough axis. No in land Hatteras runner, no coastal hugger but eventually over the Gulf Stream. Going to be very interesting what happens when it hits the GS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From GSP NOAA: #Snow changing to/mixing with #sleet over 5 forks and Mauldin. Expect a return to #snow after this band moves through. Also, new snowfall map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Burger, I can't remember ever seeing it snow this hard, flakes are huge. Worried about the icing moving in later. Almost 5 inches down now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That graphic is already a bust for my area, Indian Trail we are already over 5 and it is still hammering. I know ice is coming but we will beat that on the high side easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hey Cold and packbacker...... what'd I tell you guys about the wedge kicking this bad boy east? Straight up the GS just east of Hatteras and boomsville for ALL of central NC (including y'all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fury88 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hey Cold and packbacker...... what'd I tell you guys about the wedge kicking this bad boy east? Straight up the GS just east of Hatteras and boomsville for ALL of central NC (including y'all). That would make sense. It's currently 24 degrees F here in Southern Wake County and we're getting really heavy snow. It'll be interesting to see if any part of the warm nose makes it in here now. I've seen totals go up. I know Allan said he put out his last map but would if he would change it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Burger, I can't remember ever seeing it snow this hard, flakes are huge. Worried about the icing moving in later. Almost 5 inches down now. Yep those returns over you are headed my way. This is great. If this can bomb off shore and not hug the coast we may not have mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 @30 nice deform band showing up from around HKY to CLT and central NC. Even if there is mixing that alone would give a healthy six inches it looks like. As always with map below the usual stuff applies about mixing and totals blah blah blah... If this were to be true, that would be some serious snow late tonight into tomorrow into central SC, but I guess time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hot off of the press, the 12Z Euro for ATL metro has ~0.60" more qpf still yet to go with ~0.35" in form of IP/ZR and ~0.25" in the form of 2.5" of snow. So, If the 0.35" is mainly IP, that would mean ~1.5" of additional IP in addition to the 2.5" of snow. With already nearly 1" of IP on the ground, that could still mean 1" + 1.5" + 2.5" = ~5" total S/IP, which would certainly still be a major hit for ATL by any measures I've ever seen, especially considering half of it being sleet. The 0Z Euro also implied a similar 5" total. A long way to go folks, and it is starting to pick up again now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Pressures continue to drop out ahead of the main SLP. All indications still point this off shore along the trough axis. No in land Hatteras runner, no coastal hugger but eventually over the Gulf Stream. Going to be very interesting what happens when it hits the GS. The red lines on that map are a little off. Following SPC mesoanalysis graphics, the strongest pressure falls right now are over Gainsville and Lake City, Florida. The low will move inland next few hours, similar to what the 12Z Euro is suggesting. From there it inland over the coastal plain of South Carolina, and then eventually over Pamlico Sound, NC. I don't see this getting over the Gulf Stream. Pressure falls don't support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yep those returns over you are headed my way. This is great. If this can bomb off shore and not hug the coast we may not have mixing issues. Getting worse by the minute up here in M-ville.. visibility getting low.. flakes slowly growing in size. Amazing to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You almost never see this. Wedge getting wrapped up around LP.Eric Carpenter @eric_carpenter 20m@spann @NWSJacksonMS @JimCantore incredible cold wedge into MS!! Image ~ 2500ft from RAP model at 4 pm CST pic.twitter.com/z3j22YyVu1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 it's interesting the radar is already pivoting from s to n. tells me the phasing is already starting to occur. makes sense given the slp placement on the euro beig slightly inland up the coast. hope hky can skirt the sleet. if we do i think this is historical. if not, then it's probably another 10-12 incher. i've seen a lot of those here. the sleet barrier always keeps us from those obscene totals you see inthe mountains/far northern foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You almost never see this. Wedge getting wrapped up around LP. Eric Carpenter @eric_carpenter 20m @spann @NWSJacksonMS @JimCantore incredible cold wedge into MS!! Image ~ 2500ft from RAP model at 4 pm CST pic.twitter.com/z3j22YyVu1 Does that help draw in more cold air? or is just cool to see? Just wondering...thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rxwxunc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Have not seen it snow this hard in a very long time. In Chapel Hill, NC. Less than 1/4 visability. Really strong bands coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 it's interesting the radar is already pivoting from s to n. tells me the phasing is already starting to occur. makes sense given the slp placement on the euro beig slightly inland up the coast. hope hky can skirt the sleet. if we do i think this is historical. if not, then it's probably another 10-12 incher. i've seen a lot of those here. the sleet barrier always keeps us from those obscene totals you see inthe mountains/far northern foothills. Yeah it's going to be close, but you've got to live on the edge to get the jackpot. Let's watch where that 850 low goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hot off of the press, the 12Z Euro for ATL metro has ~0.60" more qpf still yet to go with ~0.35" in form of IP/ZR and ~0.25" in the form of 2.5" of snow. So, If the 0.35" is mainly IP, that would mean ~1.5" of additional IP in addition to the 2.5" of snow. With already nearly 1" of IP on the ground, that could still mean 1" + 1.5" + 2.5" = ~5" total S/IP, which would certainly still be a major hit for ATL by any measures I've ever seen, especially considering half of it being sleet. The 0Z Euro also implied a similar 5" total. A long way to go folks, and it is starting to pick up again now! larry check out the rap. I mentioned it in the other thread but it's going to be quickly drowned out by nc posters. It more or less agrees with the euro on those amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah it's going to be close, but you've got to live on the edge to get the jackpot. Let's watch where that 850 low goes. it's def a nice problem to have lol. it's like choosing b/n two super models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You almost never see this. Wedge getting wrapped up around LP. Eric Carpenter @eric_carpenter 20m @spann @NWSJacksonMS @JimCantore incredible cold wedge into MS!! Image ~ 2500ft from RAP model at 4 pm CST pic.twitter.com/z3j22YyVu1 It started showing it going into south or southeastern alabama and has shifted west with future runs. An incredible show of strength by our friend who has been missing for so long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 it's def a nice problem to have lol. it's like choosing b/n two super models. Based on what your saying I guess you think Morganton Lenoir and Wilkesboro gets crushed. If the rap has the H85 low track correct I would think we get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I know we are basically nowcasting at this point but aside from the HRRR and specifically referencing the 12z runs are there any models that still hold any real weight? There are some here saying that you've got to look at the position of the features as they are unfolding in lieu of what the models were predicting. How has the Euro done. If it's projections need to shift east....how far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Businessjan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 First time poster, long time lurker. Snow falling in sheets already in Greensboro. 6-10in is looking like a hilariously conservative estimate. This will be a storm that generations will hear about . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwxnut Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From GSP NOAA: #Snow changing to/mixing with #sleet over 5 forks and Mauldin. Expect a return to #snow after this band moves through. Also, new snowfall map: Already beat their forecast and still pouring snow in waxhaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Courtesy of Wright-Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The snow in GSO And CLT is impressive right now, but the fact that you rates have been so impressive highlights the other problem, that WAA is occurring and 850 hPa temperatures are rising. Radar dual-pol CC shows the Sleet/Snow axis is near Charlotte currently and is rapidly rising N throughout the piedmont of NC (about to overtake Raleigh). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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