LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I think expectations were too high. It became evident yesterday very early that ptype issues were going to be a problem. I think here in marietta the storm was great. If I had to estimate I had two inches of sleet, 2 of snow and .20" of ice. And perhaps .20" of rain. Seemed to meet my expectations. The models showing massive amounts of snow were not calculating the ptype issues around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GSP preliminary totals http://d3j5vwomefv46c.cloudfront.net/photos/large/838828955.png?1392323394 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I think expectations were too high. It became evident yesterday very early that ptype issues were going to be a problem. I think here in marietta the storm was great. If I had to estimate I had two inches of sleet, 2 of snow and .20" of ice. And perhaps .20" of rain. Seemed to meet my expectations. The models showing massive amounts of snow were not calculating the ptype issues around here. In our area, there never really was a model projection for those insane snowfall amounts. I certainly never expected anything like the Euro clown maps had as I didn't think it would snow til at least Wed. evening based on 850's. I had always been thinking that IP would be the main precip. while 850's were in the +1 to +3 range. The biggest concern by far related to being mislead imo is the Euro clown map because the Euro is so respected and its own snow maps don't even agree with its own parameters since they count all precip. when the surface is 32 or lower as snow at a 10:1 ratio. In other words, the Euro isn't even really predicting those amounts. Crazy! Interestingly, the GFS clowns are ok because they don't do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 In our area, there never really was a model projection for those insane snowfall amounts. I certainly never expected anything like the Euro clown maps had as I didn't think it would snow til at least Wed. evening based on 850's. I had always been thinking that IP would be the main precip. while 850's were in the +1 to +3 range. The biggest concern by far related to being mislead imo is the Euro clown map because the Euro is so respected and its own snow maps don't even agree with its own parameters since they count all precip. when the surface is 32 or lower as snow at a 10:1 ratio. In other words, the Euro isn't even really predicting those amounts. Crazy! Interestingly, the GFS clowns are ok because they don't do this. Yeah sleet is a giant killer for snowfall projections. I think you get about 3" of sleet to an inch of liquid equivalent. If I had somehow managed all snow I would have been looking at a foot outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yeah sleet is a giant killer for snowfall projections. I think you get about 3" of sleet to an inch of liquid equivalent. If I had somehow managed all snow I would have been looking at a foot outside.Who cares? It's the same amount of ice on the ground, and since sleet is more compact, it melts slower. I'd rather have sleet mix in and produce a denser snowpack than have a bunch of light snow that evaporates when the sun blinks at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Who cares? It's the same amount of ice on the ground, and since sleet is more compact, it melts slower. I'd rather have sleet mix in and produce a denser snowpack than have a bunch of light snow that evaporates when the sun blinks at it. How much snow did you get? Screw sleet, IMO it sucks and kills off the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 How much snow did you get? Screw sleet, IMO it sucks and kills off the good stuff.Around 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Agree with Joel on the IP. The bit of ZR last night with the IP is going to hold my snowpack here much longer, potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Agree with Joel on the IP. The bit of ZR last night with the IP is going to hold my snowpack here much longer, potentially.Assuming temps ever drop. I'm looking at the stations on Wundermap, annoyed that it's still in the mid-30s here after sundown, only to see upper 30s and 40s out west. Aren't the clouds gone there? What's the deal? Regarding IP, my further thought is that if all you care about is the pure number of actual snow, then you've lost all value from winter weather watching. We're probably worst than the average person by getting concerned about inches and p-type, but insisting on all snow and getting to some magical number without regard for how it affects your enjoyment of the storm or what you can and can't do when you go outside is just going too far. For me, I'm happy if ****'s falling from the sky and accumulating. I like to watch that, I like to be out in it and see how it transforms the landscape. SN or IP is the same thing, really, and having the snowpack stick around longer is a bonus in my book. I only care about 10" if it means I get 10" worth of precip that hangs around. Doesn't have to be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Some people like myself simply like watching the snow fall and accumulate even if it melts a day later. I was so giddy when I went outside right before I went to sleep last night and saw light snow falling. It made me happy even if the storm was a dud here when it came to snow. Sleet is fine, but it ate up a lot of the moisture and 850s simply didn't crash soon enough. I got about 2.5 inches of sleet and a half an inch of snow with about .20 inches of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 That's a good topic for a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yeah sleet is a giant killer for snowfall projections. I think you get about 3" of sleet to an inch of liquid equivalent. If I had somehow managed all snow I would have been looking at a foot outside. I've seen differing ratios for sleet to rain varying between 3:1 and 5:1. I do know that regarding the big Atlanta sleetstorms of 2/1979 and 1/1988, the ratio for one was only a little over 3:1 and the other was ~5:1. So, when guessing, I generally go with 4:1 since it is near the middle fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Some people like myself simply like watching the snow fall and accumulate even if it melts a day later. I was so giddy when I went outside right before I went to sleep last night and saw light snow falling. It made me happy even if the storm was a dud here when it came to snow. Sleet is fine, but it ate up a lot of the moisture and 850s simply didn't crash soon enough. I got about 2.5 inches of sleet and a half an inch of snow with about .20 inches of ice.I dunno, watching heavy sleet pour down with the oceanic sound is pretty exciting on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Summary of incredible Euro performance for the 2/11-13 series of SE wintry events: - Had major winter storm verbatim for much of NC starting with 12Z run of 2/4 and continuing with every run all of the way to the events!! - Had major winter storm verbatim for ATL-AHN corridor starting with 12Z run of 2/6 and continuing with every run all of the way to the events except it had two meter temp.'s of 34-36 on 12Z run of 2/7. However, with 850's then +3 to +5, solid wedging, and lots of precip., it was then implying to me major ZR regardless of what its two meter temp.'s showed. - Emphasized 2nd wave over 1st one starting with 0Z run of 2/9 and continuing that way all of the way to the events. - Suggested IP over ZR as main part of 2nd wave for ATL-AHN based on +1 to +3 850's starting with 12Z run of 2/9 and continuing that way all of the way to the events. - The 12Z run of 2/9 was used (by at least Lookout and myself) to verify that two meter temp.'s, which only got down to 32-33 at ATL on that run during the height of the wedge, were about 4-5 degrees too warm during the height of the wedge (actually got down to 28). So, the warm bias on that run verified though not quite to the degree I thought it could be as I thought it could be as much as ~7 degrees. Also, later runs did get colder with upper 20's for the coldest on some and were, therefore, actually very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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