WxBlue Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Ignore the part about AVL, but it does look like the heavy stuff will be more west than the models had forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 WxSouth Not trusting any model right now on that upper low in Northern Alabama. It has nearly stalled. Means big snow #etnwx #tnwx #wncwx all night WxSouth precip in west NC should redevelop overnight . #tnwx eastern is in for slamming all night. Quite a bit more to come. some 18" totals likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 If the HRRR is right, there's going to be a lot of happy people tomorrow. That's a fairly slow moving band of 1"+/hr rates. Damn. Is it right? I don't know. It's consistent, albeit maybe consistently wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 If the HRRR is right, there's going to be a lot of happy people tomorrow. That's a fairly slow moving band of 1"+/hr rates. Damn. Is it right? I don't know. It's consistent, albeit maybe consistently wrong. I think it is. As Robert pointed out the models are not handling the ULL not good at all. It has basically stalled right know. Would think the slow movement would be great from anywhere points East of were it is right know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Im completely confused. Im thinking the HRRR is picking up the deformation band tomorrow.. Roberts talking about the ull tonight. Doesnt seem like anything is going on tonight. What is Robert talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just looked over different hour panels for total accumulated snowfall. It has CLT going from 0 acculturation at 01 to 8-10 range at 15. That's verbatim off the panels, which has to be overdone. Edit-has 3-6 of that 8-10 coming within the next 5 hours. So seeing as how I believe the HRRR doesn't differentiate between sleet/snow, it's definitely overdone on snowfall amounts. Need up look at precip amounts now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Im completely confused. Im thinking the HRRR is picking up the deformation band tomorrow.. Roberts talking about the ull tonight. Doesnt seem like anything is going on tonight. What is Robert talking about? Agree with Robert, it's becoming obvious heaviest snowfall of the storm will come around late morning to mid day tomorrow. HRRR coming in range, it's impressive. This is not a deformation band... thats a patch of precipitation that develops near the upper-level low due to strong CVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Dude try being in the bullseye of 10-15"+ and only getting 2". The only saving grace for Oconee and Pickens counties would be for the ULL to sit on us in the morning for a couple hours! The bullseye is the toughest part of the target to hit right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This. I think for a lot of us it'll come down to comparisons of some of the wording that was being thrown around like historic and biblical. Those things obviously didn't come to pass, but meterologically it was/is a fantastic winter storm......I mean, how can you complain about a storm like this in Atlanta? We're in Atlanta, it is what it is. Looking forward, not sure I'm buying the upper level low trekking across the state producing convective snow.......I know Robert knows 50,000 times more than I about this, but we're really drying out here.....if anything the echos are collapsing as soon as they enter Georgia from the west.Absolutely. I count the last couple days as an extended winter storm (even though distinct waves). I have a boatload of snow sleet and ice. It looks like a glacier lol. Winds were blowing it around. Technically i did well and actually got within the range of my nwx forecast I was in the 6-10" area and got 8ish (hard to measure today with the blowing). So I fell right in the middle - the only thing I didn't get was an afternoon of 1"/hour rates (which I wasn't positive about anyway). Even though we saw and tracked the models got excited etc most of us realize we live in the se lol. The apocalyptic language was overkill but seems like a lot of us knew that. I mean we read models soundings and know the usual climatological outcome for these types of storms. That's what happened - I would have loved to get the 14" from the clown maps. Realistically I knew the chances were remote and never really though it would verify (not that I would have complained if it did ) Personally this was an awesome storm with surprises (good and not good) and the best winter storm I have been in in over 3 years Ps one thing I don't have now? Power lol. A lot of outages in this area due to the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Dude try being in the bullseye of 10-15"+ and only getting 2". The only saving grace for Oconee and Pickens counties would be for the ULL to sit on us in the morning for a couple hours! Definitely one of the all-time busts around here, especially the "north of 85" folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This is not a deformation band... thats a patch of precipitation that develops near the upper-level low due to strong CVA. "Deformation band" has become a catch-all phrase around here for any type of slow or somewhat slow-moving band of snow on the west side of a winter storm. It's suffered from the same misuse and overuse that QPF has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yesterday we had over 8 hrs of snow here in Easley and had 3/4 of an inch at the end of the day. Today we might have had 3 1/2 inches max after 7 hrs of snow and the last 6 hrs of sleet. EPIC BUST as usual here. You did much better than me then and I'm in easley too. Not even a dusting yesterday and maybe two and a half today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This is not a deformation band... thats a patch of precipitation that develops near the upper-level low due to strong CVA. Never said it was...but thanks for the graphic and explanation Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Overall I've been impressed with this snow. I think the biggest disappointment, for whatever reason as I'm no expert, is the warm nose that seemed to overpower the cold at ground level. I started out good at about 4.5" in the first four hours or so, so I made my inch/hr starting at about 1:30 iirc. We had slack snow for maybe the next two hours, then it went dead, before the last couple hours being sleet, followed by rain and sleet. Couldn't look online to see why w got out voted by wife and daughter for popcorn and a Netflix movie. Just assumed it was warm air eating its way into the system. Oh well. Here's to a massive deformation band tomorrow as spoken about by the weather service people. I'll take a bite of that 1" qpf they mentioned even if they won't. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheech78 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=RAX-N0C-1-24# Can anyone confirm if the snow/sleet line moving back east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I have a question for anyone that knows the answer. Why is this morning band considered to be snow for the charlotte area when we haven't seen anything but sleet and freezing rain for 12 hours? What is different about this one piece that hasn't been here for that long? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I have a question for anyone that knows the answer. Why is this morning band considered to be snow for the charlotte area when we haven't seen anything but sleet and freezing rain for 12 hours? What is different about this one piece that hasn't been here for that long? Thanks in advance. It's associated with a ULL which helps create it's own cold core. Not to mention CAA should be in full effect since the 850 low should have passed. I haven't looked at maps too much this morning though. Looking at radar it's too over impressive but HRR says in 8 hours it's cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It's associated with a ULL which helps create it's own cold core. Not to mention CAA should be in full effect since the 850 low should have passed. I haven't looked at maps too much this morning though. Looking at radar it's too over impressive but HRR says in 8 hours it's cranking. I can already see a little growth and expansion of the precip field on it from 0400-0500 EST. Looks like its gonna sweep through Atlanta in say the next 30 minutes to an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 500 mb upper low was closed off a few hours ago. It has since opened up and is going negative tilt. Some really great snowfall rates should occur over western and central NC this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Overall I've been impressed with this snow. I think the biggest disappointment, for whatever reason as I'm no expert, is the warm nose that seemed to overpower the cold at ground level. I started out good at about 4.5" in the first four hours or so, so I made my inch/hr starting at about 1:30 iirc. We had slack snow for maybe the next two hours, then it went dead, before the last couple hours being sleet, followed by rain and sleet. Couldn't look online to see why w got out voted by wife and daughter for popcorn and a Netflix movie. Just assumed it was warm air eating its way into the system. Oh well. Here's to a massive deformation band tomorrow as spoken about by the weather service people. I'll take a bite of that 1" qpf they mentioned even if they won't. ;-)As Phil said, it wasn't a warm nose, it was the lack of moisture in the snow growth zone. Also, what's coming through today is NOT a deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Thanks Widre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Dumping snow in Boone this morning, not even on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The radar seems to be filling in from Shelby to Stateville in NC. Looks like the ULL that everyone's been talking about is approaching the stage .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The radar seems to be filling in from Shelby to Stateville in NC. Looks like the ULL that everyone's been talking about is approaching the stage .... Yep, the radar is looking juicy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just started snowing here...largest flakes yet with this event! Between Winston-Salem and Lexington NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Harv311 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just started snowing here...largest flakes yet with this event! Between Winston-Salem and Lexington NC huge flakes in INT winston salem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Question: is this What the euro showed, this 2day High totals or this ull coming through. I know it had my area at 12 total and We are at 7 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Nice radar returns starting to blossom to the SW of GSO....although, it seems painfully slow to move, this moisture will pivot through the Triad to the RDU area through the afternoon and increase in coverage. I expect there are going to be some impressive totals when all is said and done.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 As Phil said, it wasn't a warm nose, it was the lack of moisture in the snow growth zone. Also, what's coming through today is NOT a deformation band. The NWS RAH called it a deformation band, lolz. May just be for a lack of better wording but it's not a big deal. "PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP...AND WILL FALL MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL CENTER AND THE ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION BAND/COMMA HEAD PRECIPITATION. UPSTREAM ANALYSIS OF SNOWFALL WITHIN THE COMMA HEAD DEFORMATION BAND INDICATES..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NWS in ILM spotted this band of sleet and snow moving into the Sandhills by noon. Looks like another inch from the south side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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