Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Climbed up to 2000 posts on last thread. That was quick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I am here to bring the MOJO!!!! BLOO Q KAZOO!!!! Oh and here is to hoping the GFS is right. Only drops 14 inches on my place. Let it snow let it snow let is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0090NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1013 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014AREAS AFFECTED...NCCONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATIONVALID 121613Z - 122215ZSUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSSPARTS OF ERN NC LATE THIS MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD INCREASETO 0.10 TO 0.15 OF AN INCH PER HOUR IN SOME AREAS AS PRECIPITATIONSPREADS NWD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ISFORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTRL AND WRN NC THIS AFTERNOON WHERESNOWFALL RATES SHOULD INCREASE TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WITH LOCALLYHIGHER RATES POSSIBLE.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVELTROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANMTNS EXTENDING SWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WITH WIDESPREADPRECIPITATION LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. LIFT IS BEINGENHANCED BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 TO 55 KT LOWTO MID-LEVEL JET IN ERN GA AND SC. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVENWD INTO NC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN A NWDEXPANSION OF MODERATE SNOW FROM THE WINSTON-SALEM EWD TO THEVICINITY OF RALEIGH/DURHAM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW ISEXPECTED BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON WITH 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES WITHLOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE.FURTHER TO THE EAST...SFC TEMPS ARE GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING FROMWILMINGTON NWD TO GREENVILLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDORSHOW A WARM LAYER NEAR 850 MB WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THEFORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.10 TO 0.15OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THISAFTERNOON...SFC TEMPS NEAR THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVEFREEZING RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC1124 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014.SYNOPSIS...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP AS A LOW MOVES FROM THE FLORIDAPANHANDLE TODAY AND RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS UPON REACHING THE EASTERNCAROLINAS TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLANDCOAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OURWEATHER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AS OF 1120 AM...NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL SEE HEAVYSNOWFALL RATES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSSTHE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA...SOURCED FROM HIGH PRESSURECENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED NEAR THEPANHANDLE OF FL. INITIAL SNOW FROM MORNING JET DIVERGENCE HASPRODUCED 1 INCH ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR TO OVER 5 INCHES ATGREENWOOD. RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OFCOOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NRN GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. 12Z NAMINDICATES THAT STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAPIDLY SPREADNORTH...REACHING THE NORTHERN ZONES BY 18Z. THE LIFT WILL COMBINEWITH A POOL OF HIGH PW...SHOWN ON THE BLENDED PW...PRODUCING ASHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. INADDITION...SEVERAL BANDS OF -EPV WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION THISAFTERNOON...FAVORING THE FORMATION OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS. A LARGEFIELD OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOONAND INCREASE THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. THE OVERLAP OF LLVL AND MIDLEVEL FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN THE GREATEST SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOONTHROUGH THIS EVENING.PRECIP TYPE IS COMPLICATED BY SUSPECT ABSENCE OF ICE NUCLEI THISAFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS MOISTURE AND OVERALL COLDLLVL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...I BELIEVE THAT ICENUCLEI WILL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...DOPPLER VELOCITY AND DUAL POL AGREEWITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH DEVELOPING A H85 WARM NOSE OVER THEEASTERN PIEDMONT. THE WARMING ALONG THE EASTERN TIER WILL CONTINUETHROUGH MIDNIGHT...YIELDING A BLEND OF SLEET AND FZRA.THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS ON TRACK. I WILL UPDATE TO ADJUSTACCUMS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OVERLAP OF DEEP MOISTURE...SYNOPTICFORCING...AND POTENTIAL BANDING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Burger I know you mentioned that the RAP changed AVL to FZRA around 12 hours. The maps I have show AVL solidly within the 850 freezing line and the 925 freezing line. What am I looking at wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It seems the nam continues to give cae 2.14" of zr. I've got .50 of that now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 here's the latest HRRR for 2 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Burger I know you mentioned that the RAP changed AVL to FZRA around 12 hours. The maps I have show AVL solidly within the 850 freezing line and the 925 freezing line. What am I looking at wrong? I was being loose with the AVL area and timing. Sorry about that. here is what I have for hour 15 and it expands west from there. 850's start backing off on both the HRRR and RAP by hour 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm assuming that HRRR map doesn't have any ZR/IP correction? 6-8" of SN in Central GA seems a tad overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GSP fully onboard for moderate/heavy snow this afternoon: AS OF 1120 AM...NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL SEE HEAVYSNOWFALL RATES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSSTHE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA...SOURCED FROM HIGH PRESSURECENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED NEAR THEPANHANDLE OF FL. INITIAL SNOW FROM MORNING JET DIVERGENCE HASPRODUCED 1 INCH ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR TO OVER 5 INCHES ATGREENWOOD. RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OFCOOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NRN GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. 12Z NAMINDICATES THAT STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAPIDLY SPREADNORTH...REACHING THE NORTHERN ZONES BY 18Z. THE LIFT WILL COMBINEWITH A POOL OF HIGH PW...SHOWN ON THE BLENDED PW...PRODUCING ASHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. INADDITION...SEVERAL BANDS OF -EPV WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION THISAFTERNOON...FAVORING THE FORMATION OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS. A LARGEFIELD OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOONAND INCREASE THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. THE OVERLAP OF LLVL AND MIDLEVEL FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN THE GREATEST SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOONTHROUGH THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Phil..the time you are giving us on this storm is awesome. Karma will swing back. GSP fully onboard for moderate/heavy snow this afternoon: AS OF 1120 AM...NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL SEE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA...SOURCED FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FL. INITIAL SNOW FROM MORNING JET DIVERGENCE HAS PRODUCED 1 INCH ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR TO OVER 5 INCHES AT GREENWOOD. RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NRN GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD NORTH...REACHING THE NORTHERN ZONES BY 18Z. THE LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH A POOL OF HIGH PW...SHOWN ON THE BLENDED PW...PRODUCING A SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL BANDS OF -EPV WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE FORMATION OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS. A LARGE FIELD OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. THE OVERLAP OF LLVL AND MID LEVEL FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN THE GREATEST SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 FFC not too worried about the gap, but may reduce amounts later: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA1117 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014...MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH CRIPPLING EFFECTS STILL EXPECTED TOCONTINUE....UPDATE...EARLY MORNING SURGE OF MOISTURE AND DIABATIC EFFECTS FIGHTING THECAA FROM THE REINFORCED CAD WEDGE RESULTED IN 0.1-0.25 INCHES OFFREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERNPORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERNTIER WITH SOME SLEET OBSERVED BETWEEN. TRENDS HAVE BEEN ON THELOWER QPF SIDE LIKELY DUE TO AN ENHANCED SLUG OF UPSTREAM MOISTUREIN THE SOUTH GA AND NORTH FL...ALLOWING FOR A MOMENTARY LULL WITHONLY LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OFCOUNTIES WHICH HAVE HAD PRIMARILY RAIN. HRRR GUIDANCE HASCONSISTENTLY INDICATED PRECIP FILLING BACK IN AND A DECENT BAND OFDEVELOPMENT STARTING BACK BY 21-00Z...AND HAS VERIFIED WELL WITHBREAKS IN THE ACTION SO NOT WANTING TO ADJUST TOTALS TOO MUCH ATTHE MOMENT. STILL FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND CURRENTLYDEALING WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES MAINLY IN A NW TO SE SWATHFROM NEAR CARROLLTON...THROUGH ATLANTA...THEN WITHIN THE I-20 TOI-16 CORRIDOR. STILL STRONG ISENTROPIC FORCING FORECAST AGAINSTTHE WEDGE COUPLED WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMIC FORCING. WILL STAY THECOURSE WITH THE MAIN FORECAST BUT COULD END UP ADJUSTING TOTALS ABIT WITH FRESH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUSDISCUSSION FOLLOWS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It seems the nam continues to give cae 2.14" of zr. I've got .50 of that now Big bust here so far. I'm sorry it's bad for you. I've had 1.75 in rain for both events, and maybe an eighth of an inch build up in zr. Along with 30 pellets of sleet about 8. Since 8:30 I've been in the usual big no precip hole for my yard, but I'm not complaining. I'd just as soon bust on the zr. Right now it's just a mild nuisance, with the power out for 4 hours. Good luck up there. The wind is really strong down here, so I'm very lucky to have very little accumulation. Hope to get hit with sleet and snow, if I ever get out of this precip hole, but if it's to be zr, I just stay in it, thank you very much Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vorticity Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 FFC not too worried about the gap, but may reduce amounts later: Based on model performance for heart of metro I'd go with reduction now and not wait. But I guess its radar and nowcast time for AL/GA now anyway not model consensus time imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GSP not really concerned about mixing for the Spartanburg area seems to think we stay all snow. Of course all the TV models show us changing over for a period even though that has come down from early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index For areas that are experiencing Ice Accumulations from Freezing Rain, this is of value. http://www.spia-index.com/index.php http://www.spia-index.com/seIce.php The Sperry–Piltz Ice Accumulation Index, or SPIA Index, is a forward-looking, ice accumulation and ice damage prediction index that uses an algorithm of researched parameters that, when combined with National Weather Service forecast data, predicts the projected footprint, total ice accumulation, and resulting potential damage from approaching ice storms. It is a tool to be used for risk management and/or winter weather preparedness. The SPIA Index is to ice storms what the Enhanced Fujita Scale is to tornadoes, and what the Saffir–Simpson Scale is to hurricanes. Previous to this hazard scale development, no such ‘forward-looking’ ice accumulation and ice damage index had ever been utilized to predict – days in advance – the potential damage to overhead utility systems, along with outage duration possibilities, from freezing rain and/or ice storm events. Current Index as of now for this storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vorticity Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I assume that is sustained winds not gusts? Guess I should not assume. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Radar returns show the snow level(virga) dropping in the northern sections of NC triad and RDU. Should start seeing flurries here shortly probably another hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandoG20 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Do you think the deformation zone with affect spartanburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Do you think the deformation zone with affect spartanburg? Yeah eventually the coma head should swing through. But that will be sometime tomorrow early on in the day. There is going to be flakes large and small fall along the 85 corridor for atleast 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RAP is showing mixing happening in 6 hours across a wide section from CLT to the foothills right as the heaviest returns move in. I really, really hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Based on model performance for heart of metro I'd go with reduction now and not wait. But I guess its radar and nowcast time for AL/GA now anyway not model consensus time imho. Why do you think that? It has filled in dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Big bust here so far. I'm sorry it's bad for you. I've had 1.75 in rain for both events, and maybe an eighth of an inch build up in zr. Along with 30 pellets of sleet about 8. Since 8:30 I've been in the usual big no precip hole for my yard, but I'm not complaining. I'd just as soon bust on the zr. Right now it's just a mild nuisance, with the power out for 4 hours. Good luck up there. The wind is really strong down here, so I'm very lucky to have very little accumulation. Hope to get hit with sleet and snow, if I ever get out of this precip hole, but if it's to be zr, I just stay in it, thank you very much Tony I'm glad you are busting on the zr.......for now I have a lot of friends in the area without power and the trees are sagging. This wind isn't helping much either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RAP is showing mixing happening in 6 hours across a wide section from CLT to the foothills right as the heaviest returns move in. I really, really hope not.the rap brings the 850 low up 85 this is why the warm nose is so far northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 RAP is showing mixing happening in 6 hours across a wide section from CLT to the foothills right as the heaviest returns move in. I really, really hope not. RAP seems quick to erode cold wedges way too quickly, then it trends colder with each run. The 850 low looks to track well south of I-85 but wants to develop a secondary low over the mtns that creates some serious feedback issues and pulls the warm nose wayyy west. @1 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 16z rap brings the surface low inside the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RAP is showing mixing happening in 6 hours across a wide section from CLT to the foothills right as the heaviest returns move in. I really, really hope not. There is no way that happens. If the SLP tracks off the coast the upper air features will follow it too right along the 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 16z rap brings the surface low inside the coastal plain. Now, that sounds familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Raleigh NWS latest thoughts http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUM6x7dH3y4&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RAP seems quick to erode cold wedges way too quickly, then it trends colder with each run. The 850 low looks to track well south of I-85 but wants to develop a secondary low over the mtns that creates some serious feedback issues and pulls the warm nose wayyy west. @1 am What do you mean by feedback issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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