Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Though honestly when LWX moves one way it's usually a good sign for the other way.. so congrats Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The LWX map shows like 2-4 for me. Sounds like a solid forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Though honestly when LWX moves one way it's usually a good sign for the other way.. so congrats Baltimore. Katie and I were just talking about this. The lowering is confusing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedrought Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NWS has downgraded the Annapolis / Severna Park area to 2-4 inches? Really?? I'm guessing that we are holding around 25 while Rockville is holding at 29 has no positive effect once the storm hits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Though honestly when LWX moves one way it's usually a good sign for the other way.. so congrats Baltimore. I think even I have a good chance of 3-6 on the front end and think there still is potential for an inch or two on the back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NWS has sleet tomorrow as far NW as Loudoun County Thats pretty normal for big storms. I grew up in Sterling. We ALWAYS switched over for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think even I have a good chance of 4-6 on the front end and think there still is potential for an inch or two on the back. I like my 8-12 for the city now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I personally think this will over perform. Wouldn't be surprised to see 20 inch amounts in the favored sports in Frederick and Montgomery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Who cares about point and click forecasts? I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 FWIW (not much) latest NMM is essentially best case scenario for DC metro--with deform setting up a nudge east of NAM/Euro http://models.weatherbell.com/news/wrf_2014021212_ref_nmm_east.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I like my 8-12 for the city now. lol, I just edited mby to 3-6 on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think even I have a good chance of 4-6 on the front end and think there still is potential for an inch or two on the back.I actually generally like their forecast map tho I'm a little more bullish in the DC zone at least. I honestly expect at least 6-8 before any issues. It's cold and the ground is ready. Euro has stepped colder each run again lately too.. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Novachris Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I like my 8-12 for the city now. with 4 for the DCA right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Who cares about point and click forecasts? I don't. They haven't updated the zones for the northern MD counties since 9:30 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Who cares about point and click forecasts? I don't. I haven't used one for years with winter weather. Great for deciding what to wear on a sunny spring day though. Winter storms? LWX disco is all I ever read. We kinda get all OCD here. For all we know, lwx reads our forum. We may be weenies but we're not dumb. And Wes posts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 FWIW (not much) latest NMM is essentially best case scenario for DC metro--with deform setting up a nudge east of NAM/Euro http://models.weatherbell.com/news/wrf_2014021212_ref_nmm_east.gif link does not work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 P&C has even added the sleet word up here... ...we'll see. A foot of snow of bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 link does not work http://models.weatherbell.com/news/wrf_2014021212_ref_nmm_east.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 About as bullish of a forecast map as I have seen from them: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://models.weatherbell.com/news/wrf_2014021212_ref_nmm_east.gif Best case scenario around D.C. indeed, sexy loop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://models.weatherbell.com/news/wrf_2014021212_ref_nmm_east.gif thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 FWIW (not much) latest NMM is essentially best case scenario for DC metro--with deform setting up a nudge east of NAM/Euro http://models.weatherbell.com/news/wrf_2014021212_ref_nmm_east.gif Honestly, I think I soiled myself. I'm amazed at how it is barely changing so close to the bay. I'll believe it when I see it but it sure looks beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 About as bullish of a forecast map as I have seen from them: <pic> What exactly is that map depicting (what does LWX predict)? Snowfall? Total storm snow accumulation? Storm final snow accumulation? All of these numbers would in theory be different. Snowfall would ignore melting, etc. Total storm accumulation would ignore mix in the middle. Storm final would include the mix in the middle and anything it does to the overnight/morning snowfall - be it rain melting it, sleet knocking it down, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What exactly is that map depicting (what does LWX predict)? Snowfall? Total storm snow accumulation? Storm final snow accumulation? All of these numbers would in theory be different. Snowfall would ignore melting, etc. Total storm accumulation would ignore mix in the middle. Storm final would include the mix in the middle and anything it does to the overnight/morning snowfall - be it rain melting it, sleet knocking it down, etc. Bottom of the map. "Storm total snow forecast In" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Any possible Impacts on the evening commute? 18Z RAP http://www.instantwe...r=REFD&hour=005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think the grids are being updated waaay to often and at some point will cause confusion to the public officials, EMs, and especially the general public. My "zone" alone went from 6-8, to 4-6, and now on the cusp of 2-4 in less than 24 hours. And yet...nothing has changed from the thermals in that time -- those models that were a touch warmer in the 900-800 mb layer are still so, maybe even not as much so as this time yesterday. I still would be bullish on the front end snowfall for DC-Balt, whether or not it ends up being 4-6 or 6-8, we'll see. Oh, and the Bay water temps are about as cold as you can get going into an event like this. Same for the Atlc shelf waters. Keep that in mind. I.E...this is NOT March 6, 3013, on so many levels.. I like my 8-12 for the city now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Depends on where you are my friend. For those of us east of I95...not so bullish compared to the last 2 forecasts... About as bullish of a forecast map as I have seen from them: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 LWX map is good, maybe shift the whole map 1 county width east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Strongly agree with the point that this isn't 3/6/13. IF there's a bust, it won't be because the snow isn't sticking of we're just getting rain/mix all day. Temps tonight are golden. Stickage will be immediate on all but the most highly traveled/pre-treated roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think the grids are being updated waaay to often and at some point will cause confusion to the public officials, EMs, and especially the general public. My "zone" alone went from 6-8, to 4-6, and now on the cusp of 2-4 in less than 24 hours. And yet...nothing has changed from the thermals in that time -- those models that were a touch warmer in the 900-800 mb layer are still so, maybe even not as much so as this time yesterday. L I still would be bullish on the front end snowfall for DC-Balt, whether or not it ends up being 4-6 or 6-8, we'll see. Oh, and the Bay water temps are about as cold as you can get going into an event like this. Same for the Atlc shelf waters. Keep that in mind. I.E...this is NOT March 6, 3013, on so many levels.. I still like CWG 5-10 for the city and less for me....more like 3-6 or 4-6. I'm not sure of the rationale for lowering Annapolis as I don't see the surface temps being a big problem. The warm layer will be aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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