WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sounds epic…I think a general 6-10" for most of us by 7-8am looks pretty good. I think some spots see 12-14" if they're lucky enough to catch the mesoscale bands. Snow ratios tonight will be pretty good by our standards (12:1 on average?) and we should have some rocking omegas and snow crystal growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 yeah great run Ian and Bob..... now if we can just move that deform destruction sw of town a little nw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 1pm to 7pm deform destruction sw of town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 ecmwf_tprecip_washdc_9.png ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_9.png I'm not holding my breath, but that 8.4 in Easton looks just fine by me. You guys around DC have to just be ecstatic - enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 ecmwf_tprecip_washdc_9.png ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_9.png Theres that Charlottesville bullseye showing up again. They might get 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 7pm to midnight. Maybe the rgem wasn't trippin? Congrats Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedrought Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My NOAA forecast totals are steadily going down in the southeast corner of Anne Arundel. Down to about 2-4 total now. The bay will get you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 People have to understand that the snowfall maps are just that snow that fall... that will not be what is on the ground when the storm finishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Im not incorrect in saying where that deform band sets up exactly who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The deform part of the storm still isn't resolved in size/qpf/location. Little things mean a lot. Tomorrow is going to be awesome. All nighter for sure too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 ecmwf_tprecip_washdc_9.png ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_9.png Holy sh*t at that precip map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 1pm to 7pm deform destruction sw of town 1pm-7pm thurs.JPG That deform band has gotten stronger with every run of the mesoscale and global models. Can't wait until it's in RAP range. I like the trend for a surprise tomorrow. I think Charlottesville/Staunton does pretty damn okay with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 People have to understand that the snowfall maps are just that snow that fall... that will not be what is on the ground when the storm finishes. Yes, but they do a good job showing where precip maxes will be as long as you take the column into consideration. These maps are 10-1 too. Overnight could be 12-1 easily for some folks. Same with the deform. Verbatim I think the snowmaps are actually kind of accurate for many people this go around. Who knows if the run verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The deform part of the storm still isn't resolved in size/qpf/location. Little things mean a lot. Tomorrow is going to be awesome. All nighter for sure too. slight shifts=huge impacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Deform bands love Leesburg...this is a known and proven fact...ask Phineas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yes, but they do a good job showing where precip maxes will be as long as you take the column into consideration. These maps are 10-1 too. Overnight could be 12-1 easily for some folks. Same with the deform. Verbatim I think the snowmaps are actually kind of accurate for many people this go around. Who knows if the run verifies. yeah, out west it's probably close if it happens that way. models also often underdo precip in banding.. so to see widespread 1.5-2" liquid is a big signal for someone getting to around 20-24"+ imo. im not sold on the duration etc yet tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 People have to understand that the snowfall maps are just that snow that fall... that will not be what is on the ground when the storm finishes. Right, as it sits on the ground the dendrites will fluff up, turning 10:1 to 12:1 or even 14:1. Noticed that during 2009/2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 7pm to midnight. Maybe the rgem wasn't trippin? Congrats Wes. congrats wes.JPG I used the ggem, wish I had seen the euro when I wrote the piece. Would have been awesome. In reality, it's still early to try to pinpoint a deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 yeah, out west it's probably close if it happens that way. models also often underdo precip in banding.. so to see widespread 1.5-2" liquid is a big signal for someone getting to around 20-24"+ imo. im not sold on the duration etc yet tho. No doubt. It's a lock there will be some intense banding overnight. No way the resolution of a global will nail that. It's not supposed to of course. I would like to see the deform work more NE as the storm pulls away. Verbatim it sorta fizzles and slides due north. We'll know tomorrow. I don't think anybody west of the bay will be unhappy with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twax1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NWS has sleet tomorrow as far NW as Loudoun County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Im not incorrect in saying where that deform band sets up exactly who knows. You are correct. I don't even think the atmosphere knows yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I used the ggem, wish I had seen the euro when I wrote the piece. Would have been awesome. In reality, it's still early to try to pinpoint a deformation band. I always like seeing you get hit over there. My best friend lives in Ches Beach and he's a snow nut too. Any thoughts on the deform or is it a total wait and see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NWS has downgraded the Annapolis / Severna Park area to 2-4 inches? Really?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'll take 1.4" of qpf. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twax1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/ Great link... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NWS has downgraded the Annapolis / Severna Park area to 2-4 inches? Really?? Yeah, that hurts me deeply. Aaahhh.. living by the Bay. Beautiful in the summer, snow killer in the winter. I still think they are unsure of the mixing possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NWS' point and click has Baltimore at 3-6 now. Are they seeing something in the models to drop totals that low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NWS' point and click has Baltimore at 3-6 now. Are they seeing something in the models to drop totals that low? everyone's scurred of the mix.. though dropping is really dangerous given the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Theres that Charlottesville bullseye showing up again. They might get 2 feet. Getting very confident that my bet with my wife that we get more than 10" will pan out. Good Lord Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You are correct. I don't even think the atmosphere knows yet. Never a more true, funny and profound statement I have read on here. Thanks for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.