HM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GGEM is 1.5" by 0z tomorrow and maybe a little after that, but 850 line gets out to IAD by 12z....but then is goofy and crashes by 15z... 0.9" by 12z, but we may flip around 8z or 9z...I wouldnt take its thermals too seriously... So every model is over .75 qpf by 12z correct? Awesome... As for our friends north, be careful with vertically stacking systems and best lift going northeast up coastal plain. Sometimes they have areas they skip with snow swaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 (I know what wxmeddler said above, but still... this image... and RAP has constantly been stating 35+dbz for midnight to 4am for past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just your run of the mill 40dbz band over DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Zwyts and Bob Chill... check out composite radar on 16z RAP after 03z (10pm)... its sick wow...verbatim we mix at 4-5am..but we have 50" by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I disagree with this. The NMM has a huge wet bias; the ARW bias has been consistently better. Both are getting upgraded in a few months - it's especially overdue for the NMM http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpverif/scores/2014/201401/hiresw_east.201401.gif In the January stats, though, the ARW did run a little wet at higher amounts but was still nowhere near as wet as the NMM. My statement was anecdotal, based on my use of the model...didn't know of or look at any stats. In my experience looking at the two, ARW has always been wetter. Glad they're being upgraded, was just told by WPC they both have a large bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 16z RAP Juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I wont be posting during the euro...let's hope it is a good run..I am assuming it wil take 7 times and 3 minutes for me to post this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here the link to the RAP Click on the total ACC precip http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=rap_jet&domain=t3&run_time=12+Feb+2014+-+15Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 good grief. I'm not "jealous" of his seasonal snowfall. it's just stupid to jump into a thread where people are tracking their biggest storm in 4 years and asking about how much snow New York is going to get when there are forums dedicated to those areas full of information. I've been following the M/A forum all winter cause it is the best (and funniest) and because the Philly forum is basically dead. I tried not to ask an "imby" question.......I just wanted to see what the real HM thought about the northern area......Is it really stupid.....It is just one question......There will be no follow up question.........There is no need to be rude......A non-response would have been better........fwiw I hope everyone south of me gets buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I wont be posting during the euro...let's hope it is a good run..I am assuming it wil take 7 times and 3 minutes for me to post this We heard you the first hundred times over the past three days. We get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We heard you the first hundred times over the past three days. We get it. I know...I'll hush up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Not sure if anyone has mentioned it, but 12z GFS soundings for DC actually pretty darn ok--we straddle 0c at surface and 850 for hr 27-33, but never see a true warm surge. Definitely colder than the NAM. Reason for difference is that GFS keeps dryslot east of the bay...700RH at hr 30 NAM vs. GFS is night and day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I see closed h5 low in NE GA/NW SC/SW NC region on 24 hr EURO on instantweathermaps... looks like in E GA on the Plymouth... will assume this is good for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I see closed h5 low in NE GA/NW SC/SW NC region on 24 hr EURO on instantweathermaps... looks like in E GA on the Plymouth... will assume this is good for us Mouth of the Chesapeake at hr 48? Looks big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 IAD ~1.5"+ DCA -~1.5" ~0.65" by 12z Same track more or less...a little less organized.... 7pm start, 2am finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 euro looks a hair colder early but maybe a little west as it passes.. back end is rocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Euro looks tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 euro looks a hair colder early but maybe a little west as it passes.. back end is rocking Deform band looks like it would rock and roll checking that h5 pass and 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 euro looks a hair colder early but maybe a little west as it passes.. back end is rocking Nice. The back end will be the kicker and will determine what and where the highest totals are. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 we need bob chill pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like it held to me. Maybe a little less qpf. Great run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 00z euro will save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Are we allowed to post wxbell euro maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like it held to me. Maybe a little less qpf. Great run! Looks like it held to me. Maybe a little less qpf. Great run! It's more or less "held" for 4 days now. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 IAD ~1.5"+ DCA -~1.5" ~0.65" by 12z Same track more or less...a little less organized.... 7pm start, 2am finish 850s for DC go above 0 at roughly 14z, and crash by 21-22z...we don't waste much precip in the interim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 IAD ~1.5"+ DCA -~1.5" ~0.65" by 12z Same track more or less...a little less organized.... 7pm start, 2am finish Only a 7 hour storm? Oh, wait, you mean 31 hours, LOL. .... MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 00z euro will save us Based on this run, the euro is a 18" event for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 LOL- Ian ninja'd me. Major deform destruction SW of town. We barely lose the column 7am-1pm. I assume anytime rates are strong during that period it will be snow. It's a smokin run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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