yoda Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GGEM locked and loaded sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelhousman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Prob in the Culpepper/Warrenton/Luray triangle I'm very close to Warrenton so I can report on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Has ggem Ben discussed in here yet? It's wet and warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 0C 850s stay east of RIC? I thought the RAP looked warm for us, but that was a couple runs ago. 16z RAP suggests mixing tomorrow am, but less mixing as you head west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's wet and warm... Stupid wxbell has the panels with no data. What does the h85 and surface low track look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I still like my late last night call of the max precip band just W of DC between JYO and Fairfax co, then NE though Montgomery, Howard, N Baltimore co, then over across southern Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 dunno if posted but wxbell has hrrr radar loop up free http://models.weatherbell.com/news/hrrr_current_se.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 22 degrees at Navy Yard (up from 14 this morning) as of 12pm --- high is suppose to be 30 but I am doubting we get there... especially with cloud cover moving in. Dewpoint is 6. navy yard is always too cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GGEM is 1.5" by 0z tomorrow and maybe a little after that, but 850 line gets out to IAD by 12z....but then is goofy and crashes by 15z... 0.9" by 12z, but we may flip around 8z or 9z...I wouldnt take its thermals too seriously... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I still like my late last night call of the max precip band just W of DC between JYO and Fairfax co, then NE though Montgomery, Howard, N Baltimore co, then over across southern Lancaster. jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Stupid wxbell has the panels with no data. What does the h85 and surface low track look like? surface is 20 miles west outer banks to 25 miles east ORF then northeast...got to be honest...tons of convection and whole run looks completely goofy...there are double lows at one point whats interesting is 925 is below 0 whole time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 surface is 20 miles west outer banks to 25 miles east ORF then northeast...got to be honest...tons of convection and whole run looks completely goofy...there are double lows at one point whats interesting is 925 is below 0 whole time http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Suggests we are good till 12z or so for snow... then play with mix for a while till 21z... then rakage 22z till 02z It does look a bit odd tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 jackpot! I'll have some of what meddler is dealing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 dunno if posted but wxbell has hrrr radar loop up free http://models.weatherbell.com/news/hrrr_current_se.gif What the heck is all that grey at the start? The key shows rain, lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Suggests we are good till 12z or so for snow... then play with mix for a while till 21z... then rakage 22z till 02z that's actually incorrect but I wouldnt take its thermals seriously based on the track, the goofy run, and its bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 that's actually incorrect but I wouldnt take its thermals seriously based on the track, the goofy run, and its bias I figured as much... just thought I would show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 But the Ccb on the backside looks good on ggem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 FWIW the hiresw twins are icing (not literally) on the cake with cold and wet. The ARW, usually wetter, looks more realistic to me than the NMM. I disagree with this. The NMM has a huge wet bias; the ARW bias has been consistently better. Both are getting upgraded in a few months - it's especially overdue for the NMM http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpverif/scores/2014/201401/hiresw_east.201401.gif In the January stats, though, the ARW did run a little wet at higher amounts but was still nowhere near as wet as the NMM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GGEM Light Blue - 850, Dark Blue - 32 9z 12z 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 16z RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Stupid wxbell has the panels with no data. What does the h85 and surface low track look like? btw...track of the 850 low is fine...then the whole storm gets diffuse and weird briefly...honestly..toss this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 16z RAP Its pretty insistent on closing off in AL. Just monstrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 FYI...I am going to make very few euro posts and no backyard questions.....There are plenty of other more able than me who can help out...I find it frustrating that the SQL error hasnt been resolved... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I asked about that earlier, what does a closed low in AL mean for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I DO..............and since my region's forum isn't nearly as active as yours I thought I'd ask.......geez Try not to take personal. Many times you guys up North get snow and we get a near miss (even though it looks like something was headed right for us!!) As a result the guys on this board have an extreme jealous hatred for you Northerners who normally get a lot more snow than us. Right now these guys are giddy as a school girl and they want to bask in the glory of the approaching storm which we rarely see with no distractions!! Again , please try not to take it personally the local gang is just busy and focused!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm measuring this storm by SQL errors per hour. It looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm measuring this storm by SQL errors per hour. It looks promising. At least wow is on top of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Zwyts and Bob Chill... check out composite radar on 16z RAP after 03z (10pm)... its sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 btw...track of the 850 low is fine...then the whole storm gets diffuse and weird briefly...honestly..toss this run yea, panels finally came up. Weird progression when it counts. I'm not worried about it. Kinda nice on the deform though. This is a big euro run. I'm thinking like you. Jog east but still mix problems. Most interested in how wet the front is and what happens with the deform. Stating the obvious of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 16z RAP A friendly reminder that individual RAP/HRRR runs are not to be taken as a absolute out past 12 hrs or so and a composite/mean of previous runs are preferred to 18hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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