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February 12-13 Storm IV, Model Discussion


stormtracker

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22 degrees at Navy Yard (up from 14 this morning) as of 12pm --- high is suppose to be 30 but I am doubting we get there... especially with cloud cover moving in. Dewpoint is 6.

navy yard is always too cold 

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Stupid wxbell has the panels with no data. What does the h85 and surface low track look like?

 

surface is 20 miles west outer banks to 25 miles east ORF then northeast...got to be honest...tons of convection and whole run looks completely goofy...there are double lows at one point

 

whats interesting is 925 is below 0 whole time

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surface is 20 miles west outer banks to 25 miles east ORF then northeast...got to be honest...tons of convection and whole run looks completely goofy...there are double lows at one point

 

whats interesting is 925 is below 0 whole time

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

 

Suggests we are good till 12z or so for snow... then play with mix for a while till 21z... then rakage 22z till 02z

 

It does look a bit odd tbh

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FWIW the hiresw twins are icing (not literally) on the cake with cold and wet.  The ARW, usually wetter, looks more realistic to me than the NMM.

 

   I disagree with this.   The NMM has a huge wet bias; the ARW bias has been consistently better.   Both are getting upgraded in a few months - it's especially overdue for the NMM http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpverif/scores/2014/201401/hiresw_east.201401.gif

 

  In the January stats, though, the ARW did run a little wet at higher amounts but was still nowhere near as wet as the NMM.

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I DO..............and since my region's forum isn't nearly as active as yours I thought I'd ask.......geez

 

 

Try not to take personal.  Many times you guys up North get snow and we get a near miss (even though it looks like something was headed right for us!!)  As a result the guys on this board have an extreme jealous hatred for you Northerners who normally get a lot more snow than us.  Right now these guys are giddy as a school girl and they want to bask in the glory of the approaching storm which we rarely see with no distractions!!  Again , please try not to take it personally the local gang is just busy and focused!!!!!

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btw...track of the 850 low is fine...then the whole storm gets diffuse and weird briefly...honestly..toss this run

 

 

yea, panels finally came up. Weird progression when it counts. I'm not worried about it. Kinda nice on the deform though. 

 

This is a big euro run. I'm thinking like you. Jog east but still mix problems. Most interested in how wet the front is and what happens with the deform. Stating the obvious of course. 

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