JMU2004 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 preview of tonight/tomorrow's radar I hope not. That Dry Slot cost RIC the storm totals seen elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I went with a guess of 7.3" at BWI. I'm really feeling confident on that now. My boys will have a nice surprise in the morning me thinks. Sent from my XT907 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This cold is the real deal. Still only 16 here. Maybe some 12-1,15-1 ratios for several hours overnight. That is what I was I was going to ask. I am counting on rates around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm thinking DC could also be tinkering with those types of amounts. You guys are in fair play between 2z and 10z as far as I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohndc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is there any analogs to a storm system, like this one, overrunning a really cold air mass? I haven't been in the area that long. I'm sitting at 25, and the wet bulb calculator is spitting out 21 degrees. I know DC is right on the line, but just like a CAD event, it will take some time to move the cold out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM 0.85" by 12z..sorry if this was mentioned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Man. You all are right about the RAP run. Deform banded for hours for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think someone w/sw of IAD will have 15"-18" by 10am...not sure who... Prob in the Culpepper/Warrenton/Luray triangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Are we feeling better w/mostly all snow and a select few pingers now? Speaking DCA/BWI. What Bob said. As we go through the day tomorrow, cooling of the column will depend on heavier rates, but I don't think anyone expects major liquid or pinging precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Heaviest precip should be all snow. Lulls can ping and drizzle sometime after sunrise. I expect a lull. If the deform moves overhead in the afternoon it will be all snow. Music to my ears! Lulls suck, but front end and deform bands for the win. No sleep tonight for sure. I can make up for it over the next 3 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From wusa9...I think higher totals may need to shift east a bit myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 .7 to 1.25 qpf all snow with hefty banding in your area means fair game at a potential 12-18" zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is there any analogs to a storm system, like this one, overrunning a really cold air mass? I haven't been in the area that long. I'm sitting at 25, and the wet bulb calculator is spitting out 21 degrees. I know DC is right on the line, but just like a CAD event, it will take some time to move the cold out of the way. honestly, different setup with eroding high pressure and no displaced PV....but I have been thinking about a mini-PD1 all morning where someone in Loudoun or Fauqier wakes up to 15"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 .7 to 1.25 qpf all snow with hefty banding in your area means fair game at a potential 12-18" zone. sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I hope not. That Dry Slot cost RIC the storm totals seen elsewhere. You gus are really walking a thin line down there. Hell...even those of us up here in the near western DC burbs might be on our tippy toes if the track nudges west some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 .7 to 1.25 qpf all snow with hefty banding in your area means fair game at a potential 12-18" zone. Do you think that 12-18 zone goes somewhere right through PA and into NY & maybe parts of Mass?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From wusa9...I think higher totals may need to shift east a bit myself image.jpg So hard to guess where the heavy bands are going to be. West usually does better just because of ratios. It's a decent map I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You gus are really walking a thin line down there. Hell...even those of us up here in the near western DC burbs might be on our tippy toes if the track nudges west some. Always on the line down here. I'm about 25 miles NW of KRIC, so I usually do a bit better. Don't see a W movement at this time. RAP is a beaut for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Music to my ears! Lulls suck, but front end and deform bands for the win. No sleep tonight for sure. I can make up for it over the next 3 winters. We'll have to see how it goes. My best guess for the lull is 10am-3pm. However, a 30+/- miles shift east in the h85 low would keep us under good rates throughout. Today's model runs are very important for figuring out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From wusa9...I think higher totals may need to shift east a bit myself image.jpg "Trends" today would possibly agree with you, though I personally think it's going to be hard to go 12"+ 95 and east unless deform sets up. If I can get into double digits, I'll be perfectly content. And if I can double my season-to-date total (14"), I'll be over the f'ing moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I payed 12 bucks for wifi on my flight so you guys better bring this home. Good luck to everyone and I hope some of you are alive after you get death banded so I have someone to talk to when I get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Always on the line down here. I'm about 25 miles NW of KRIC, so I usually do a bit better. Don't see a W movement at this time. RAP is a beaut for all. 0C 850s stay east of RIC? I thought the RAP looked warm for us, but that was a couple runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Always on the line down here. I'm about 25 miles NW of KRIC, so I usually do a bit better. Don't see a W movement at this time. RAP is a beaut for all. Every bit west helps us out in these (and most other) situations. I'm 10-15 miles west of DCA and have a little elevation, which has certainly helped me before. I'll take the 15z RAP and the 12z HI-RES. But the margins are so slim right now, though that might be a boon to those who eventually sit just on the western/northern edge of that margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM Clown Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We'll have to see how it goes. My best guess for the lull is 10am-3pm. However, a 30+/- miles shift east in the h85 low would keep us under good rates throughout. Today's model runs are very important for figuring out tomorrow. Got it. Cool. Look forward to what the King and NAM have to say next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I payed 12 bucks for wifi on my flight so you guys better bring this home. Good luck to everyone and I hope some of you are alive after you get death banded so I have someone to talk to when I get home. I hope your flight gets rerouted mid-flight and has to come home. For your sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Has ggem Ben discussed in here yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 FWIW the hiresw twins are icing (not literally) on the cake with cold and wet. The ARW, usually wetter, looks more realistic to me than the NMM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I hope your flight gets rerouted mid-flight and has to come home. For your sake. Lol I wish, my flight was so overbooked that at the gate they offered 750 dollar travel vouchers for anyone who would get bumped to the 520 flight. So I tried convincing my wife that for 4,500 in travel vouchers it was a no brainer, secretly hoping that it would get delayed and I would be stuck here but of course no dice, she said no way in hell she does not care how much they offer. Enjoy the storm for me please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 who cares? good grief. I DO..............and since my region's forum isn't nearly as active as yours I thought I'd ask.......geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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