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February 12-13 Storm IV, Model Discussion


stormtracker

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Is there any analogs to a storm system, like this one, overrunning a really cold air mass? I haven't been in the area that long. I'm sitting at 25, and the wet bulb calculator is spitting out 21 degrees. I know DC is right on the line, but just like a CAD event, it will take some time to move the cold out of the way.

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Heaviest precip should be all snow. Lulls can ping and drizzle sometime after sunrise. I expect a lull. If the deform moves overhead in the afternoon it will be all snow.

Music to my ears! Lulls suck, but front end and deform bands for the win. No sleep tonight for sure. I can make up for it over the next 3 winters.

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Is there any analogs to a storm system, like this one, overrunning a really cold air mass? I haven't been in the area that long. I'm sitting at 25, and the wet bulb calculator is spitting out 21 degrees. I know DC is right on the line, but just like a CAD event, it will take some time to move the cold out of the way.

 

honestly, different setup with eroding high pressure and no displaced PV....but I have been thinking about a mini-PD1 all morning where someone in Loudoun or Fauqier wakes up to 15"+

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You gus are really walking a thin line down there.  Hell...even those of us up here in the near western DC burbs might be on our tippy toes if the track nudges west some.

 

Always on the line down here. I'm about 25 miles NW of KRIC, so I usually do a bit better.

 

Don't see a W movement at this time. RAP is a beaut for all.

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Music to my ears! Lulls suck, but front end and deform bands for the win. No sleep tonight for sure. I can make up for it over the next 3 winters.

 

We'll have to see how it goes. My best guess for the lull is 10am-3pm. However, a 30+/- miles shift east in the h85 low would keep us under good rates throughout. Today's model runs are very important for figuring out tomorrow. 

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From wusa9...I think higher totals may need to shift east a bit myself

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"Trends" today would possibly agree with you, though I personally think it's going to be hard to go 12"+ 95 and east unless deform sets up.

 

If I can get into double digits, I'll be perfectly content.  And if I can double my season-to-date total (14"), I'll be over the f'ing moon.

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Always on the line down here. I'm about 25 miles NW of KRIC, so I usually do a bit better.

 

Don't see a W movement at this time. RAP is a beaut for all.

 

Every bit west helps us out in these (and most other) situations.  I'm 10-15 miles west of DCA and have a little elevation, which has certainly helped me before.

 

I'll take the 15z RAP and the 12z HI-RES. :lol:  But the margins are so slim right now, though that might be a boon to those who eventually sit just on the western/northern edge of that margin.

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We'll have to see how it goes. My best guess for the lull is 10am-3pm. However, a 30+/- miles shift east in the h85 low would keep us under good rates throughout. Today's model runs are very important for figuring out tomorrow.

Got it. Cool. Look forward to what the King and NAM have to say next.

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I hope your flight gets rerouted mid-flight and has to come home. For your sake.

Lol I wish, my flight was so overbooked that at the gate they offered 750 dollar travel vouchers for anyone who would get bumped to the 520 flight. So I tried convincing my wife that for 4,500 in travel vouchers it was a no brainer, secretly hoping that it would get delayed and I would be stuck here but of course no dice, she said no way in hell she does not care how much they offer. Enjoy the storm for me please.

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