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February 12-13 Storm IV, Model Discussion


stormtracker

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For the record, there's no reason to be disappointed in this storm. This was always going to be a front end thump, dry slot with snizzle and then a chance for a back end hit. It's gone as planned, IMO.

 

So I am dissapointed....if the storm had tracked 20 miles east I would have had a foot. As it stands I have 3-4 inches of wet cement in Annapolis.

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I see the 18z GFS is having fun with the clipper Friday night, developing a strong low over North Carolina and deepening it over the coast. Thinking this could bring higher snowfall to our region (Maryland) if it pans out. NAM and ECMWF aren't seeing the low forming that early and that far south.

We've got a thread going for this event :)

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All the weenies must have crashed the server :(

 

It's going up and down. Just reload a few times :)

 

21z HRRR is even more bullish, from about 4pm through storm end:

 

 
I mixed rain/sleet for the first hour or so of those totals, so I'll be a bit lower, but not all of AA county did.
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It's going up and down. Just reload a few times :)

 

21z HRRR is even more bullish, from about 4pm through storm end:

 

 
I mixed rain/sleet for the first hour or so of those totals, so I'll be a bit lower, but not all of AA county did.

 

 

Awesome...HRRR did very well last night picking up on the bands.

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Look at the eastward drift speed of the precip. It is at about 4 miles per half hour based on radar (measured with radar scope's handy tool). Going to take a while to cross all of Baltimore County. Most of the motion of the system is north to south, not east to west, and there is a lot more north of us still to come south. I'd give it another 1-2 hours before it clears east of Baltimore County, 1 to 1.5 hours for AA County.

 

Though 4-6" definitely seems high!

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