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February 12-13 Storm IV, Model Discussion


stormtracker

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yay!  lol

 

That would truly be a miracle if somehow we score and N and W areas don't.  I hope they get in too, but it would just seem.....odd.

 

I'm not willing to concede defeat yet, but I know I'm just lying to myself. As if that really makes it any easier. 

 

 

 

 

Hmmm... thundersnow?

 

 

 

Yup. Check out that line of convection down between RIC and ORF. Multiple strikes... 

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here's the 12z mos for ROA from the Euro through 0Z

THU 12Z 13-FEB  -2.8    -1.8    1007      90      92    0.00     546     540    THU 18Z 13-FEB   0.8    -3.9    1001      86     100    0.16     539     538    FRI 00Z 14-FEB   0.0    -3.9    1002      82      55    0.10     538     536    

here's what has fallen thru 1PM:

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KROA.html

 

here's their current radar:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=fcx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

 

 

I think we do better than what Euro Mos shows

Euro busted badly low at ROA and it will only get worse (for the forecast, that is) as they had heavy snow still falling at 2PM

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Can't get much closer...first bands heading towards us

 

Yeah, but the center of the H5 circulation looks like it's going to make a beeline from south of Roanoke to south central Delaware. Perhaps we can get a decent band of enhancement between the Blue Ridge and IAD. That kinda looks like it might want to take shape. 

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These coming rain showers with rumbles of thunder will be a nice taste of the early spring that is imminent.

frankly, after today through early next week, it won't bother me like it would have if this never happened

and considering late FEB and early MAR have produced around here lately, who knows

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