mitchnick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 here's the 12z mos for ROA from the Euro through 0Z THU 12Z 13-FEB -2.8 -1.8 1007 90 92 0.00 546 540 THU 18Z 13-FEB 0.8 -3.9 1001 86 100 0.16 539 538 FRI 00Z 14-FEB 0.0 -3.9 1002 82 55 0.10 538 536 here's what has fallen thru 1PM: http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KROA.html here's their current radar: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=fcx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no I think we do better than what Euro Mos shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I would agree with this almost 100% of the time but the pass is a bit south for them IMO. Not saying I think DCA will jackpot. I'm just not convinced this particular one is a NW kind of deal. I believe 12z EURO made the h5 pass just to our SE? RGEM would be like if everything went right and the snow gods were honoring us kind of pass to get those totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Bernie Rayno likes us for 3-6 later. Bullseye I95. DCA/BWI. Some blizzard-like conditions even for a bit. I'm down with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 this is all we need to look at imho re this afternoon http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AKQ&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haudidoody Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Bernie Rayno likes us for 3-6 later. Bullseye I95. DCA/BWI. Some blizzard-like conditions even for a bit. I'm down with that. "Bullseye I95" LOL, how many times have I heard that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Deb it up. If something sucks, there's no reason not to b**ch about it! Not bitching but recognizing how little changes in location can mean big differences. My are will just do a bit worse than many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I had to read that twice to make sure it said "east" lol, I did the same! Not so sure what it will be like here (Pasadena). Maybe we will get a couple inches but I am worried about temperatures. Currently 35.9 down from a high of 36.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 "Bullseye I95" LOL, how many times have I heard that... You seem disappointed in the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Nothing can stop the FDK - Westminster death band I hope. Feeling greedy. That said, we definitely way overperformed pretty much any model progs for the primary coastal. If I get another 2-3" tonight, I am perfectly happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just want to see that line up well! http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/index.php?load=regloop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 "Bullseye I95" LOL, how many times have I heard that... He didn't actually say bullseye, just when he drew his map with the 3-6 area, we were smack dab in the middle of it. He's a no nosense guy. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/index.php?load=regloop who needs a model when you have that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The cams and pics coming out of Roanoke are pretty nuts for the back end snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haudidoody Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 He didn't actually say bullseye, just when he drew his map with the 3-6 area, we were smack dab in the middle of it. He's a no nosense guy. I'm in. Alright, what did he say about surface temperatures or the current showery nature of the precipitation? It seems to me we need a consolidated mod-heavy band to get real accumulation given the circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Lets have a Fairfax-DC death band But yeah, that usually happens... hope we can get it to sweep through us It really looks like that's what we're going to end up with, something like a VA-495 east to the bay band for the heaviest QPF? The convective bands down along the James river are a nice touch too. Kinda feels like the H5 low is rubbing salt in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm screwed. 2 feet IMBY and the ULL has bombed out above Roanoke. Attached pic is of my 4' high dog fence https://twitter.com/dmulford/status/434036504042934272 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It really looks like that's what we're going to end up with, something like a VA-495 east to the bay band for the heaviest QPF? The convective bands down along the James river are a nice touch too. Kinda feels like the H5 low is rubbing salt in my eyes. Now that's funny. No sooner do I hit "Post" and go back to Radarscope in hopes of seeing salvation than I see SPC's discussion and region outline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 New MD sticks with the earlier idea of keeping the best precip south of the typically preferred areas. www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0102.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 this is all we need to look at imho re this afternoon http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AKQ&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes If you don't have Radarscope, this is a far better site for radar http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=AKQ-N0Q-1-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Now that's funny. No sooner do I hit "Post" and go back to Radarscope in hopes of seeing salvation than I see SPC's discussion and region outline. yay! lol That would truly be a miracle if somehow we score and N and W areas don't. I hope they get in too, but it would just seem.....odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 image.jpg Fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hmmm... thundersnow? MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NW/N-CNTRL NC...SRN/ERN VA...SRN MD CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 131843Z - 132345Z SUMMARY...AN AREA OF MODERATE SNOWFALL CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WRN VA AND WRN/CNTRL NC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD WHILE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL /WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/HR/ IS EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL VA BETWEEN 18-21Z AND WRN VA/SRN MD BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT NEWD ACROSS THE SERN QUADRANT OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...INDUCING A NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER LOW AND INCREASING ITS NEWD PROGRESSION. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OFF NRN MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL LIFT ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THE OVERALL NEWD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND INCREASED LIFT...AREA OF MODERATE SNOWFALL CURRENTLY ACROSS WRN VA AND WRN/CNTRL NC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD WHILE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/HR IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL VA BETWEEN 18-21Z AND WRN VA/SRN MD BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. ADDITIONALLY...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICK ENOUGH ABOVE 700 MB TO SUPPORT 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AOA 7 DEG C PER KM. RESULTANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I-81 closed near Roanoke.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 95 and east jackpot. Im all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 They mentioned TS in their previous MD and I haven't seen any reports of it from down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caliwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Lightning south of Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 They mentioned TS in their previous MD and I haven't seen any reports of it from down there. Obs thread reporting thunder and lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I-81 closed near Roanoke.. 81 south there looks like a big Flying J. Nothing but 18 wheelers going nowhere fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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