SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM 12 hr and 24 hr panels....very impressive, especially how much falls after 7PM tonight If the king agrees then I'm preparing for awesomeness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It's not a deform band. Correct. I wondered why people were calling it that. It certainly looks like a separate piece of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Correct. I wondered why people were calling it that. It certainly looks like a separate piece of energy. It's the upper level low actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Ooops. I responded to an obs. Does anyone have any updates on the modeled temps for this 2nd wave? 16Z RAP precip type this evening before the changeover http://www.instantweathermaps.com/RAP-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014021316&time=INSTANT&var=PTYPE&hour=007 and surface temps (yuck) http://www.instantweathermaps.com/RAP-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014021316&time=INSTANT&var=TMP&hour=007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It would be nice to have the HRRR working again soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Guys you hopefully will not be disappointed it is absolutely pouring the snow here in Roanoke easy 2" rates an hour. Will give an update for what we have on the ground in a little it's over 14 I know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I hate to ask an IMBY question here but is this going to be more of a mix or all snow in the Baltimore area? Only reason I ask is its 35 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 FWIW, 12z GGEM says go for this evening... 9mm at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yep, a bit more as is pulls away. RGEM has us bullseyed. This is a 3hr panel from 4pm - 7pm. Almost .6 rgemqpf4pm7pm.JPG RGEM was ridiculous on the B and W hand drawn maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The lull reminds me a bit of PD2, which had so many pieces, and there was a big debate over whether to count it all as 1 storm...and since it was all associated with the same complex, they did...of course this one will be the same PD2 - - Rain the night of the 14th changes to snow on the morning of the 15th..light snow all day with temps falling - generally 1-3" - 8 hour lull - Main act starts after midnight, mod-heavy overnight and most of the day on the 16th..many of us flip to sleet mid evening and it is heavy sleet/mix until middle of the night - changes to light snow and snows for about 8-9 hours and we pick up another 2-3" - 8 hour lull - the 850 low I believe comes through, and it snows overnight another 1" or so a 96 hour event....sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 It does seem like, once again, local mets are being too conservative. Bit them last time in the ass, but this time is a little different. But like last time, models are pretty bullish for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM clown FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The lull reminds me a bit of PD2, which had so many pieces, and there was a big debate over whether to count it all as 1 storm...and since it was all associated with the same complex, they did...of course this one will be the same PD2 - - Rain the night of the 14th changes to snow on the morning of the 15th..light snow all day with temps falling - generally 1-3" - 8 hour lull - Main act starts after midnight, mod-heavy overnight and most of the day on the 16th..many of us flip to sleet mid evening and it is heavy sleet/mix until middle of the night - changes to light snow and snows for about 8-9 hours and we pick up another 2-3" - 8 hour lull - the 850 low I believe comes through, and it snows overnight another 1" or so a 96 hour event....sick I remember picking up another 1.5 late Mon night into Tues. in that final piece of energy. Pretty sure it wasn't forecasted. Precip broke out in Virginia early Mon. evening and rode all the way up. Not sure if it was the 850 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM clown FWIW lol that would nearly double my total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM clown FWIW Uh... I would love that map to come true... but I am going to cut that in half and run with it...in fact I think we all should cut that in half Wait, wouldnt that include like 1-3 some of saw before the changeover this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 lol at that RGEM map. We know we're probably not even going to see half that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Uh... I would love that map to come true... but I am going to cut that in half and run with it... in fact I think we all should cut that in halfCut in half 5 inches, that would be incredible, hard to believe that can happen but this storm has overperformed once already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Uh... I would love that map to come true... but I am going to cut that in half and run with it... in fact I think we all should cut that in halfCut in half 5 inches, that would be incredible, hard to believe that can happen but this storm has overperformed once already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 lol at that RGEM map. We know we're probably not even going to see half that. I am waiting for Zwyts's "EURO :o" in like 10 mins to confirm the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I need more ... Sleet put a damper into a great event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm in York county and many of the idiots are saying our snow is over. What a bunch of morons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 No matter what happens, I'm just going to add the totals from the RGEM clown map to my totals from last night. Gotta add another 20"+ storm to the record books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The lull reminds me a bit of PD2, which had so many pieces, and there was a big debate over whether to count it all as 1 storm...and since it was all associated with the same complex, they did...of course this one will be the same PD2 - - Rain the night of the 14th changes to snow on the morning of the 15th..light snow all day with temps falling - generally 1-3" - 8 hour lull - Main act starts after midnight, mod-heavy overnight and most of the day on the 16th..many of us flip to sleet mid evening and it is heavy sleet/mix until middle of the night - changes to light snow and snows for about 8-9 hours and we pick up another 2-3" - 8 hour lull - the 850 low I believe comes through, and it snows overnight another 1" or so a 96 hour event....sick It was awesome. I was living in germantown. We maximized the entire thing pretty much. ULL passes are way fun. Dynamic and unstable. Someone should get a good smack with this one Looks pretty pumped right now; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I see 12z EURO initialized with a closed 543 h5 low in NE GA/NW SC on instantweathermaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It was awesome. I was living in germantown. We maximized the entire thing pretty much. ULL passes are way fun. Dynamic and unstable. Someone should get a good smack with this one Looks pretty pumped right now; Tony Pann said he is not impressed with the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Tony Pann downplays everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Tony Pann said he is not impressed with the energy. Yeah, he was impressed for 6-9 until late last night for us on Montgomery and Fairfax on his maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Tony Pann said he is not impressed with the energy. Heh, we'll see how it progresses. It's going to be bandy and popcorny. Those are serious met terms too. I'd be fully fired up for 1-3" of +sn. There is my bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Tony Pann downplays everything. This was the same guy who as of yesterday morning on the radio said there would be a few slushy inches on the roads in the Baltimore area and the morning rush hour this morning would be ok :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Heh, we'll see how it progresses. It's going to be bandy and popcorny. Those are serious met terms too. I'd be fully fired up for 1-3" of +sn. There is my bar. Yeah, I am setting the bar for 1-3... hoping for like 4-6 Btw, Disc's pictures in the obs thread from Roanoke... he is getting pounded. I want that soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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