WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 12z NAM looks like a general 1-2" more with the deform band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We need to rock whatever happens around 95 at least. Sfc cold is gone and it's not scheduled to come back prior or during. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We need to rock whatever happens around 95 at least. Sfc cold is gone and it's not scheduled to come back prior or during. Probably means it'll just outright fail now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We need to rock whatever happens around 95 at least. Sfc cold is gone and it's not scheduled to come back prior or during. The deform band will spawn a rogue mini high pressure to the north and will manufacture it's own cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Well, that sucks. I was hoping for 2-3 inches at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Probably means it'll just outright fail now. I think most folks figured it would be icing on whatever cake we got prior. The prior cake was quite delicious.. so, eh. I'd take it but no major loss if it doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The deform band will spawn a rogue mini high pressure to the north and will manufacture it's own cold air Yes and create a stinger jet pointed at Ji's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Maybe we get lucky and pull out another 1-3", but like Ian said, we've lost surface temps so we need it to rock. I suspect some of us will get 1-2, but any and all reports above that will be in the typical NW locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Snow has no trouble sticking to snow. There's no reason to worry about sfc temps during the deform band as long as the thermals are adequate enough to produce at least some dendritic growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sterling getting a little more aggressive for the jackpot zone. 18-24s popping up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Fri night and Sat AM look pretty robust still on the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Fri night and Sat AM look pretty robust still on the 12z NAM Love that threat with the awesome h5 pass, Bob will be all over it as soon as the last flake falls tonight. Heck, he probably already is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sterling getting a little more aggressive for the jackpot zone. 18-24s popping up.. If the RAP is right. I will have no problem breaking 24 inches. I am already just under 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We need rates no matter what around here. DCA is going to be like 5+ above forecast highs at this rate. White rain doesn't stick to much well. If I'm not looking at big bands I have little hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wondering if temps are a problem for that event. Looks marginal for the BWI and south crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Should take the next threat to its own thread probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I think we could easily get another 3-5 DC wide if the deform band swings through as modeled and depicted on current radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We need rates no matter what around here. DCA is going to be like 5+ above forecast highs at this rate. White rain doesn't stick to much well. If I'm not looking at big bands I have little hope. I guess one good point is that snow will probably stick to snow - but bare surfaces with rising temps will be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We need rates no matter what around here. DCA is going to be like 5+ above forecast highs at this rate. White rain doesn't stick to much well. If I'm not looking at big bands I have little hope.I agree that rates are important, we need good dendrite growth to accumulate on pavement/bare surfaces in the mid/upper 30s..which I assume should be no problem within the deform band itself.I'm more worried about the band whiffing us to the east, rather than sfc temps. We have a foot of fresh snow covering everything...snow will ways stick to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I guess one good point is that snow will probably stick to snow - but bare surfaces with rising temps will be in trouble.I'm not really sure what that means. If it's 35 and we don't have rates snow won't stick to snow very well. The development southwest is good so far. Though at least some modeling keeps it fairly compact as far as the quality stuff. I don't think it can't happen.. I'm more not sure why anyone is super confident about it dropping a lot more just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Friday night stuff can go here http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42861-february-14-15-potential-event/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I agree that rates are important, we need good dendrite growth to accumulate in the mid/upper 30s..which I assume should be no problem within the deform band itself. I'm more worried about the band whiffing us to the east, rather than sfc temps. We have a foot of fresh snow covering everything. Yeah me too hopefully the euro/gfs depiction of band location is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm not really sure what that means. If it's 35 and we don't have rates snow won't stick to snow very well. The development southwest is good so far. Though at least some modeling keeps it fairly compact as far as the quality stuff. I don't think it can't happen.. I'm more not sure why anyone is super confident about it dropping a lot more just yet. My thoughts are 1-2 tops at this point. We really are torching right now, though. I do wonder if once the low really intensifies off the coast if we get the winds a little bit more out of the NW if we can cool even just a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm not really sure what that means. If it's 35 and we don't have rates snow won't stick to snow very well. The development southwest is good so far. Though at least some modeling keeps it fairly compact as far as the quality stuff. I don't think it can't happen.. I'm more not sure why anyone is super confident about it dropping a lot more just yet. Are you sure about that? I've seen it snow at 37-38 degrees in Oakland MD, and stick easily to the underlying snowpack while melting upon contact with bare surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Are you sure about that? I've seen it snow at 37-38 degrees in Oakland MD, and stick easily to the underlying snowpack. Naa just making stuff up. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregD Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What is the definition of "day time" in the NWS forecast? They just bumped it from 6-10 to 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Short range models are showing their ugly side with the torch continuing until this evening, but the deformation band is still there for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The latest MD mentions thunder snow for areas in southern va for later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crystal City Jeff Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NBC4 is bullish with the ULL and calling for an additional 2-4" Not sure which weather model Tom K is hugging...but he says snow from 3pm until 9pm and very strong winds (35-40mph gusts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 14z RAP likes dc for around 0.3 it looks like with the evening stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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