Stormpc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 As long as the yellows aren't sleet. Hopefully its still snowing at Fredericksburg its still snow in Fredericksburg according to a friend. He is actually east of the city towards the northern neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Whatever it is the RAP and HRRR are keying on, they're going nuts. 3Z HRRR has spots along 95 in the 10-14" range by 6am. It's crushing that corridor between DCA and BWI.. That would be some serious crushing going on shortly. Fingers crossed to see that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Western HoCo and southern Carroll about to get rakage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 As long as the yellows aren't sleet. Hopefully its still snowing at Fredericksburg Confirming it is still snowing in the Fredericksburg/Spotsy area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Whatever it is the RAP and HRRR are keying on, they're going nuts. 3Z HRRR has spots along 95 in the 10-14" range by 6am. It's crushing that corridor between DCA and BWI. The HRRR is forecasting thundersnow from 4am through about 7am. For example, take a look at the 4am EST lightening 2 index (link) and the 4am EST snowfall qpf (link). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 As long as the yellows aren't sleet. Hopefully its still snowing at Fredericksburg The first line is not necessarily sleet. I was snow for about 2 hours after that first large band ripped through. Of course, I'm further west than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Glad to hear that's a snow profile south of DC. And, we should also have a few speedy moments of board refresh time as everyone runs to check out another profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I can tell the snow is still dry its blowing of my table and roof in Annapolis windy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0098 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA TO THE NYC METRO AREA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 130517Z - 131015Z SUMMARY...A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST MEGALOPOLIS FROM WASHINGTON DC TO NEW YORK CITY THROUGH 12Z. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY. DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LOCAL STORM REPORTS CONFIRM MULTIPLE HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAVE BEEN CENTERED ACROSS SWRN INTO CNTRL VA AND FAR SRN WV. THIS CORRIDOR WILL SHIFT NEWD THIS MORNING AS AN ARC OF INTENSE LOW-LEVEL WAA IS SHUNTED DOWNSTREAM OF CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING NEAR THE ERN NC COAST. 21Z SREF GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE 00Z NAM AND WRF-NSSL/NMM SUGGEST THE MOST PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL LARGELY OVERSPREAD THE MEGALOPOLIS THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY LIE JUST NW OF THE TRANSITIONAL CORRIDOR TO RAIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL FIRST INCLUDE THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. FARTHER NE...ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN FULL SATURATION OF A VERY DRY 850-500 MB LAYER SAMPLED BY THE 00Z OKX/CHH RAOBS. WHILE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS...HEAVIER SNOW RATES WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO THE PHILADELPHIA AND NEW YORK CITY METRO AREAS BETWEEN 09-12Z. ..GRAMS.. 02/13/2014 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 As long as the yellows aren't sleet. Hopefully its still snowing at Fredericksburg It is. Temp back up to 26.1 (up 0.2 deg) and now snowing moderately, much less pixie dust and real flakes now. Winds mostly from the north. Cold air seems to be winning down around RIC, at least on the weather radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 not exactly sure what you're asking, but the HRRR is run at ESRL in Boulder using their version of the RAP Version 2 (V2) as initial conditions. It's the same RAP being implemented by NCEP in two weeks, and I was saying that given how juicy the RAP V2 is tonight, it's not surprising that the HRRR is going crazy too. Sorry..you. NCO SPA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Freezing rain now in Ric, after about 4 inches..... Watching out for tomorows wrap around snows. Some places could get more from that than what they are getting tonight. ( around here anyways) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Western HoCo and southern Carroll about to get rakage... Can confirm rakage here in Western HoCo. 20.8* MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Crushed A nice 2-4 cap on whatever we get tonight, would be excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 3Z RAP says what dry-slot http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=rap_jet:&runtime=2014021303&plot_type=cref_t3sfc&fcst=17&time_inc=60&num_times=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The RAP and HRRR is starting to show pinks in Balt Co as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Anyone have any good open-source products for short-range convection potential besides radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The RAP and HRRR is starting to show pinks in Balt Co as well They seem pretty insistent on there being spots of 12-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sorry..you. NCO SPA? EMC. you're somewhere in the NCWCP too, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 1 hour snowfall from HRRR is showing highly localized 5-6" per hour snowfall rates tomorrow pre-dawn passing through the area - looks like thundersnow is the cause. (Link) This in turn is making a nice large swath of high snowfall estimates with widespread 12+ inches and moderate areas of 18+ inches in the DC/Baltimore corridor. (Link) Don't know whether to believe this or not. If we get thundersnow, we might hit that, but that is a big if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 EMC. you're somewhere in the NCWCP too, right? Yup. NCO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Congrats Wes.. I am going to miss the biblicial 50 dbz band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 EURO Tomorrow evening/night? Not out yet on WxBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 EURO MEGA DEFORM BAND! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 1 hour snowfall from HRRR is showing highly localized 5-6" per hour snowfall rates tomorrow pre-dawn passing through the area - looks like thundersnow is the cause. (Link) This in turn is making a nice large swath of high snowfall estimates with widespread 12+ inches and moderate areas of 18+ inches in the DC/Baltimore corridor. (Link) Don't know whether to believe this or not. If we get thundersnow, we might hit that, but that is a big if. One thing that would be questioned is the fact that it still has the RIC area receiving good snowfall rates through 06Z (now). Meanwhile a good chunk of that area simulated for 0.5-1.0"/hour snowfall rates had turned over to sleet a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Holy moly that is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 both 00z hiresw models show some serious stuff for NOVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 EURO....1.8"!! 0.75" of DEFORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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