mitchnick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 At 11" now in Roanoke County VA live nearby to Disc who reports a lot. It is absolutely pouring the snow right now too. Any idea timeframe wise what time this deform band rolls thru my area? I would have never guessed that much considering this ob from NWS (of course, missing one hour since 9PM) http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KROA.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Careful, dtk is reading.Ok. I won't contribute then. I have better things to do anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Man this was an epic smackdown by the king. If this was the winter olympics of longterm snowstorm modeling we didn't even medal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 gives us 1.9" Welcome to the party, GFS! We almost canceled your reservation. ETA: Wait a minute, are you talking about the RGEM or GFS? GFS gives us something around or over 1.25", which is still much higher than it had before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 heh....the GFS just woke up GFS passive aggressive parameterization turned off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Big time back end loving on the RAP tomorrow evening Going to get some 2'+ totals with that look, likely in N VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 coastal front setting up off the Caralinas look at those temps http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=te&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 As crazy as this may seem I can't wait to see what happens later tomorrow despite of what is going to happen tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Ok. I won't contribute then. I have better things to do anyway. You're getting trolled. Don't sweat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I would have never guessed that much considering this ob from NWS (of course, missing one hour since 9PM) http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KROA.html Wow that graphic seems way off it's been snowing since about 1415 today and really started coming down at 5-6ish tonight good ratios too fluffy as heck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Seems like the CCB/deformation zone phase later tomorrow might be looking better for a lot of people now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Ok. I won't contribute then. I have better things to do anyway. Your input is important here. Phin's a troll. A bad one. I agree this is a great system for a model case to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Heh, GFS has another 3-5" on Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Seems like the CCB/deformation zone phase later tomorrow might be looking better for a lot of people now. the u/l low to do the damage is over N Alabama http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=htx&product=N0R&loop=yes ...causing heavy snow as of 10PM http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=-1®ion=se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm totally stoked that all of us are going to get nailed. Especially dc proper. It's not a game of inches for once. This will go down as one of my favorite storms. It's a fluke. Right place at right time. We don't do this often at all No Doubt....The National radar is awesome! Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Ok. I won't contribute then. I have better things to do anyway. Dude, don't cheat the rest of us out of some good analysis. Hang around. What do you think caused the shift tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 0.5" precip of something frozen from 5am to 8am on the RR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Last few frames of radar... ka BOOM http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php (time sensitive) ...we can do much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 3z RAP at 3a: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Heh, GFS has another 3-5" on Sat. Maybe redemption for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm totally stoked that all of us are going to get nailed. Especially dc proper. It's not a game of inches for once. This will go down as one of my favorite storms. It's a fluke. Right place at right time. We don't do this often at all Yeah, it's very exciting, almost surreal...and it's been a long time after so many just-missed events, lost or wasted opportunities, and agonizing busts/under-performers! I'm still amazed at how things have trended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Pretty sure he meant by the morning, which is still on the low side considering recent models. Wjla just lead off the newscast with a map with 4-8" storm total for DC so I wouldn't be too sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 3z RAP at 3a: and its been consistent with this right? wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I like the look of the 03z RAP radar in for 06z to 10z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 and its been consistent with this right? wow. yes, locked and loaded once the time frame came into range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Dude, don't cheat the rest of us out of some good analysis. Hang around. What do you think caused the shift tonight? I've not a clue. I had a long day and haven't looked at much since early afternoon. I just got home, hopped in bed, checked the phone, and that was literally the first post I saw. What the hell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Maybe redemption for the GFS. NAM was showing it earlier, too. Would be a nice nightcap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 3z RAP at 3a: Lock those 45dbz bands in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Obviously overdone but still impressive, 18" DC-BWI by 14z. Means heavy rates will mean business even though that is too extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just looked at the RGEM on WxBell. Drops 0.7 through 12z tomorrow. The backside would be crazy, if it happens as modeled. It drops about 0.6-0.7 over DC during the deform band. 850s below 0 by then too. I honestly had to look at the maps several times to see if I was seeing things. Whoever gets under the deform band will be very lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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