Dr No Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 So when do we start the thread on the Friday night 3-5" threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 A tired Matt got me interested in the Wes deathband. I used twister to get a NAM sounding over my house tomorrow night at 10PM. Here's the sounding I found. Look between 700 and 500 mb and follow the sounding and compare it to the curved moist adiabat, it's unstable. I don't know whether that means we get thundersnow but do think explains why the NAM is pretty bullish with the QPF in the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 i dunno...Im honestly too exhausted to keep analyzing models... not directed at you at all but everyone believes whatever they want to believe anyway...if it is sleeting at 5am, 100 people will be posting that no model showed it, and how could this be happening...when it comes to weenieism you can scream at people for an hour that it will rain and they simply wont accept that it was ever said...I am too tired to keep answering questions that have been overanalyzed and answered and discussed ad nauseum for the last 48 hours....if people don't understand at this point the general outline of how this storm might evolve, they are simply unteachable I totally agree. Most of the Raleigh area is probably going to reach 6" or more through a combo of snow, sleet, and maybe snow at the end. Charlotte is busting on the snow part so far but may reach the forecast range through heavy sleet and snow at the end. It does read like people are treating this as a 'snowstorm' for the metro areas. A better description is a 'winter storm.' We'll get to our ranges somehow, but it'll include sleet for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looking at the nest 12k NAM, it has parts of AA and Calvert counties getting 6"+ during a 3-hr period ending tomorrow at 10pm. Doesn't seem realistic, but ya never know with these bands. Of course, it also has places with >4" liquid by then too, so..... And snowfall well over 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looking at the nest 12k NAM, it has parts of AA and Calvert counties getting 6"+ during a 3-hr period ending tomorrow at 10pm. Doesn't seem realistic, but ya never know with these bands. that never happens to AA county, though the RGEM had it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 that never happens to AA county, though the RGEM had it too I posted a sounding that sort of explains why the rates are so heavy. The sounding shows instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I see three bits of evidence on the surface analysis that are encouraging for this storm to remain cold at the surface. 1. The shoreline reporting stations in North Carolina have 2 meter temperatures in the thirties. 2. The system dropping down in to the upper Mid-west seems stalled or occluded and therefore may not assist our big storm in wrapping warm air around to the back side of the low. 3. A persistent small high pressure system over the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 JB2's final call snow map: https://m.facebook.com/54875673475/photos/a.472052198475.261315.54875673475/10152182877163476/?type=1&refid=17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I posted a sounding that sort of explains why the rates are so heavy. The sounding shows instability. Lol Wes, I thought it was valid for right now (03Z), not 03Z Fri. Anyway, I am becoming more and more curious about that deformation potential. I would lock 2-4" right now if I could. That will make something to look forward to once we mix/turn over to sleet or dry slot for a while (freezing drizzle). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 The GFS will have a 1012 low off of OC with .45 inches of total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The GFS will have a 1012 low off of OC with .45 inches of total QPF The gfs fiasco may need it's own thread after this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 latest HRRR keeps us in the snow through mid morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Lol Wes, I thought it was valid for right now (03Z), not 03Z Fri. Anyway, I am becoming more and more curious about that deformation potential. I would lock 2-4" right now if I could. That will make something to look forward to once we mix/turn over to sleet or dry slot for a while (freezing drizzle). I should have specified. The band tomorrow night is interesting as three models have it. the GFS didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The gfs fiasco may need it's own thread after this storm Few inches Friday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 JB2's final call snow map: https://m.facebook.com/54875673475/photos/a.472052198475.261315.54875673475/10152182877163476/?type=1&refid=17 I guess he thinks I switch to heavy sleet or heavy rain. I'll be really surprised to get heavy anything but snow. Mix will come in lulls, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I posted a sounding that sort of explains why the rates are so heavy. The sounding shows instability. like my blood pressure that came that ---------> - close to putting me in the hospital today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The GFS will have a 1012 low off of OC with .45 inches of total QPF I heard that they decided not to even run the GFS tonight. It needs a time-out. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 2z Rap... 2am...40 dbz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 2z Rap... 2am...40 dbz sim radar pics plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 is that vort closed or at least negatively tilted? http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20140213&endTime=-1&duration=5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 2z Rap... 2am...40 dbz I will be up and ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 heh....the GFS just woke up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Rgem..7p Friday...backside love! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Congrats GFS, you caught up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 heh....the GFS just woke up details for us on ncep where the run will finish after the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 heh...took it only 100 runs to catch on...oh well...cant win em all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 although sometimes misleading, I like the look of the pressure map and 3 hr pressure tendency maps they suggest the slp will be over or off the OBX http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=pr&inv=0&t=cur http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Rgem..7p Friday...backside love! Randy, check out the next panel too....you won't believe it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 heh...took it only 100 runs to catch on...oh well...cant win em all back end looks great, assuming it finds its way over us from in VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Randy, check out the next panel too....you won't believe it! wtf? still going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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