nj2va Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hires NAM is 1.2-1.4 through 12z. On WxBell, 850 map shows DC at 0 from 10z through 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Matt, where do you get the hi-res earlier than NCEP? There maps suck. Can't find it on instant weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 00z NAM shows precip in DCA till around midnight tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Damn, you are always a buzzkill dude. I'm a little skeptical of the changeover while the precip is still pretty heavy. As soon as we lose the rates, that should be it until the upper air support later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Matt, where do you get the hi-res earlier than NCEP? There maps suck. Can't find it on instant weather. paysite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Matt, where do you get the hi-res earlier than NCEP? There maps suck. Can't find it on instant weather. Prob WxBell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 12z warm nose below 850, 15z marginal, 18z warm layer high up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 For as much as the HRRR shows barely any 30+ dbz's overall amounts still go the distance oddly enough. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=hrrr_jet:&runtime=2014021223&plot_type=acsnw_t3sfc&fcst=15&time_inc=60&num_times=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 lol..regular NAM gives me 1.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 00z NAM shows precip in DCA till around midnight tomorrow night Any indication on how much of that is deformation snows after whatever mix we have earlier in the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAM deform is crazy. love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAM goes back and forth a bit tomorrow morning IMBY (Towson). Back to snow at 15z. Temps have been jumping around the last few runs -- no clear trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 How much liquid falls as a part of the deform portion of the storm? 0.3" after 21z which is when we flip back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAM backside is like a whole separate storm at this point. Pretty defined lull and then moderate snow rolls back in for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 2" qpf western DC suburbs, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 lol..regular NAM gives me 1.8" I love El Niño winters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 So we get the nam front end and the euro back end and gfs still has .70? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hi res NAM sim radar only turns over to rain during lull in precip.most of us are good snow thru 5am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 No way the GFS is correct, just by looking at the radar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Did anyone gas up the bus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 based on hi-res we lull from 10-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sweet. 13 hours of what we have now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 0.3" after 21z which is when we flip back Thx...just finally saw that now on the "slow" NCEP maps. Looks like precip continues up to 06Z Thursday night. That's another 2-4" probably I'd guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hi res sim radar has yellows over DC in the deform band at 6pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wes gets deathbanded tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 0.3" after 21z which is when we flip back That is what would put this system in the "overperformer" category for those of us in DC-Balt and points east of I-95. Well, that an up to 8+ of frontside snow before the pingers. IMBY, I'm pretty sure in order for us to get into double digits, we're going to need that 1-3" with the deformation band. 4" tomorrow afternoon/evening would be BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 0.4" precip from 10z to 13z. Will be really interesting to see what that precip ends up being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 12z frame of the 00z nam puts down 1.0"qpf in 6hrs? sweeeeeeeeet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Almost def snow with wrap around cold air. 0.4" precip from 10z to 13z. Will be really interesting to see what that precip ends up being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I've basically been ignoring the fact that every model has us at like 35 degrees during the comma head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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