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February 12-13 Storm IV, Model Discussion


stormtracker

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Heh, GFS boosts the backend and finally jumps to 1-1.25" overall precip for DC. Temp profiles still suck, but seals the deal.

This is how I feel - regardless of the torturous path it took the GFS to get there, it's now calling for 1+" of precip to start falling in 7 or 8 hours.

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Like that is going to happen....a 48 hr mesoscale band being perfectly forecast.  

 

I was just having some fun. I do however hope that you get deformed big on the way out. We're just not going to know how the backside goes until tonight or even tomorrow morning. 

 

 

How do you feel about the gfs looking good at all levels but so light on precip? is this a shot across the bow for the front end or does other guidance put most of those fears at bay?

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Like that is going to happen....a 48 hr mesoscale band being perfectly forecast.  

Sarcastic Wes is being sarcastic.

 

It's gonna happen bud.    Look forward to your excited rapid posts about 2" per hour and how you and Mrs Junker are making snow angels.  

 

12Z GFS better thermal profiles IAD/DCA than the NAM now.  Next...juice it up.

oh yeah

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For those wanting a foot of snow, that dry western edge is, and always has been a concern.  The GFS can just be dismissed.  And now it appears the RGEM joins that party. If youre happy with a few inches, I'd say you're locked in.  More, you could be disappointed.

 

It's a little concerning. But It's still 8 inches or so. Not awful IMO.

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Request not to crop titles/legends off maps so they're easy to read and people don't have to waste posts asking for them to be interpreted.

 

 

The problem is regional panels. I have to zoom way in to get the detailed shots. I can post full maps and let you guys zoom in if that's better. 

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Does anyone know why the NWS has the onset for DC proper at 6pm? Seems inconsistent with the models I'm looking at. Do they see something we don't?

Caution, perhaps?  6PM is during rush hour, maybe they wanted to "start" it a tad early so that people will not be out on the roads by the time it really begins.

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