usedtobe Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The RAP keeps getting better and better...not with thermal profiles but with getting heavy stuff in much sooner than earlier runs Well the thermal profiles sucked even during the feb 6 2005 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The RAP keeps getting better and better...not with thermal profiles but with getting heavy stuff in much sooner than earlier runs Is that 35+ dbz for like 6 to almost 7 hrs on the 23z RAP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Well the thermal profiles sucked even during the feb 6 2005 storm. yeah, I think the RAP had 850's above 0 back to tyson's during snowmaggedon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I think give me any models but the RPM and to a lesser extent GFS and I'll be happy. I still have no idea what the RPM is except that it looks warm a lot of times. TV mets seem to like it. Anyone have a clue about it. WBAL uses it all the time. Seem to change drastically sometimes from run to run. Definitly tends to run warm. I have noticed it does okay with small scale features like picking up where some banding may occur. Also noticed and don't no if it's a coincidence but it seems to do okay with the last several hours of storms. The run that Tom T had on at 6 showed the back end tomorrow evening looking pretty healthy including your area. Problem is they run it so fast you if you blink your eye you miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Here's another look at the 22z HRRR snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 can somebody give me a good RAP link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 WBAL uses it all the time. Seem to change drastically sometimes from run to run. Definitly tends to run warm. I have noticed it does okay with small scale features like picking up where some banding may occur. Also noticed and don't no if it's a coincidence but it seems to do okay with the last several hours of storms. The run that Tom T had on at 6 showed the back end tomorrow evening looking pretty healthy including your area. Problem is they run it so fast you if you blink your eye you miss it. It also pulled the green rain into Carroll County for a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 can somebody give me a good RAP link I like twister data. It has all the goodies. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 can somebody give me a good RAP link http://www.eminem.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 I like twister data. It has all the goodies. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast thankies http://www.eminem.com/ c+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 http://www.eminem.com/ Awesome Beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 lol..i know its the RAP, but if you look at the end of the 22z run, you can see the ull about to crush us with the backside stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 lol..i know its the RAP, but if you look at the end of the 22z run, you can see the ull about to crush us with the backside stuff I'm pretty much settling into the fact that the next 18-24 hours is going to be pretty awesome for most of us. I guess the stuff later tomorrow is less certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 lol..i know its the RAP, but if you look at the end of the 22z run, you can see the ull about to crush us with the backside stuff Look at composite sim from 6z-12z. My god man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm pretty much settling into the fact that the next 18-24 hours is going to be pretty awesome for most of us. I guess the stuff later tomorrow is less certain. I'm very interested in the deform from the ull passage. not that I think it's a rakage over me or anything. Just that it will be a great learning experience. Models place the precip all over the place for a good reason. Nearly impossible to pinpoint such a narrow feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 can somebody give me a good RAP link technically, they are the same link http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=rap_jet&domain=t3&run_time=12+Feb+2014+-+23Z http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=rap_jet:&runtime=2014021223&plot_type=acsnw_t3sfc&fcst=18&time_inc=60&num_times=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1 http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=rap_jet:&runtime=2014021223&plot_type=cref_t3sfc&fcst=10&time_inc=60&num_times=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1 http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=rap_jet:&runtime=2014021223&plot_type=1hsnw_t3sfc&fcst=10&time_inc=60&num_times=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm very interested in the deform from the ull passage. not that I think it's a rakage over me or anything. Just that it will be a great learning experience. Models place the precip all over the place for a good reason. Nearly impossible to pinpoint such a narrow feature. What's your gut saying? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 lol..i know its the RAP, but if you look at the end of the 22z run, you can see the ull about to crush us with the backside stuff RAP have accuracy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Crushing...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 lol..i know its the RAP, but if you look at the end of the 22z run, you can see the ull about to crush us with the backside stuff Yup, Tommy T brought to attention. He said perhaps several more inches of snow after a lull in the afternoon, or a perceived lull due to sleet/zr/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RAP absolutely rakes me for the next 8 hours. Easy inch plus rates if I can stay out of mixing. Located 20 miles wnw of RIC in east central goochland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Columbia: Hi today 25.9. Lo this morning 11.2. Now 23.2 Snow pretty steady now for past hour. Basic whitening has occurred. My side street looks like the last thing to not yet really stick well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It also pulled the green rain into Carroll County for a period. Yes. I saw that. Could happen, but as soon as the afternoon bands start swing through we'll flip right back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yup, Tommy T brought to attention. He said perhaps several more inches of snow after a lull in the afternoon, or a perceived lull due to sleet/zr/rain. I only caught a glimpse of his snowfall totals map. What did he have us in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roundhillsnow Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Still steady light snow everything has a nice coating 20 deg. (Round Hill, VA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I only caught a glimpse of his snowfall totals map. What did he have us in. 10 - 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Short term models look great for next 12 hours. Then, where does the dry slot set up? 23z RAP seems to keep it just to east of DC. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Columbia: Hi today 25.9. Lo this morning 11.2. Now 23.2 Snow pretty steady now for past hour. Basic whitening has occurred. My side street looks like the last thing to not yet really stick well. Post in obs thread pls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twax1 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0541 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATESCONCERNING...HEAVY SNOWVALID 122341Z - 130515ZSUMMARY...A LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP NEWDTHIS EVENING WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDSHOULD EXIST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONTFROM NWRN NC TO CNTRL VA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z AND INTO THE WASHINGTONDC METRO AREA BY 06Z.DISCUSSION...23Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM A BROAD AREA OFMODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS FAR N AS THE I-64 CORRIDOR IN VA/WV. 12ZCONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF GUIDANCE GENERALLY APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH NRNEXTENT /OUTSIDE OF THE NSSL-WRF/ COMPARED TO RADAR/SURFACEOBSERVATIONS. CONSENSUS OF CONVECTIVELY-PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCEAPPEAR CLOSER TO REALITY...WITH 15Z SREF MEAN AND 18Z NAM SUGGESTIVEOF SNOWFALL RATES AVERAGING 1-2 IN/HR. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVENINTENSE FRONTOGENESIS/ISENTROPIC LIFT DOWNSTREAM OF A VIGOROUS ANDSTILL AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE MOSTPERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY EMANATE NEWD FROM THE NWRNNC/SWRN VA AREA TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON DC METRO AREA BETWEEN 03-06Z...GRAMS.. 02/12/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What's your gut saying? lol Gun to head? I would say it banks up against the east side of the blue ridge / catoctins and hangs for a bit and sweeps east and then northeast. The tricky part is the lift on the nw side of the upper level low. Maybe central VA with that feature? Maybe us? Ratios with these features are usually pretty high. If someone gets .3 in a relatively short period of time it could = 4-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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