BTRWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From what I can see, the HRRR has been on the money all evening down south. I'm definitely weighting it over the RAP. My professor refers to the latter as the CRAP model. I agree with him. Where do you study? The main reason I like the RAP is the extra 3 hours into the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Where do you study? The main reason I like the RAP is the extra 3 hours into the future. I'm at UMD, atmospheric science & paleoclimate.I'd love for the RAP to verify, BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That is some kind of band the RAP puts over DCA and vicinity, strong divergence aloft with the LFQ of the incoming upper jet streak and RRQ of the departing. The 700 mb VVs speak for themselves and the 500 mb VVs are also impressive, there would be phenomenal rates within that band to say the least with impressive convective enhancement, possible TSSN as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From what I can see, the HRRR has been on the money all evening down south. I'm definitely weighting it over the RAP. My professor refers to the latter as the CRAP model. I agree with him. Pretty bad assessment. The HRRR is the Hi Res RAP btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 MD0095 would like to say hello..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 HRRR 21z total snowfall through 12z tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 MD0095 would like to say hello..... mcd0095.gif Been waiting for that! Knew it was coming after looking at the short range Hi Res guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Holy crap, snowing at 83 and cold soring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSF Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Holy crap, snowing at 83 and cold soring Already? Nice! Nothing here at Belair Rd and Glenarm Ave yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Snowing here - 24 degrees. Post also in the obs thread! I suspect the model thread will start to become to obsolete one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 local mets down here in RIC calling for an early flip before midnight. Guess their looking at the RPM? Don't think they're right....I'm at 22.8 and ripping snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 guys this is the model discussion threads. Please post your obs in the obs thread. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 guys this is the model discussion threads. Please post your obs in the obs thread. thanks I'm looking forward to the 0z nam. Purples man. Purples. i'm most interested in how the deform gets resolved. That's a pretty big wildcard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm looking forward to the 0z nam. Purples man. Purples. i'm most interested in how the deform gets resolved. That's a pretty big wildcard. I think give me any models but the RPM and to a lesser extent GFS and I'll be happy. I still have no idea what the RPM is except that it looks warm a lot of times. TV mets seem to like it. Anyone have a clue about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm pretty excited at the potential when the upper energy passes by late tomorrow. I think there sure could be couple hours of pretty heavy snow... Of course for northern VA and DC, we'd want the upper energy to close off and pass just SE of DCA to put us in the best position. The latest RAP has some good omegas associate with it off to our SW at 17Z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I think give me any models but the RPM and to a lesser extent GFS and I'll be happy. I still have no idea what the RPM is except that it looks warm a lot of times. TV mets seem to like it. Anyone have a clue about it. I think that may be because that's what is sold to them by their data providers. Kind of dumb if you ask me. I think it's also what they use for all of their "futurecast" graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 22z HRRR still has that 12"+ blob over DC through 8am tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm looking forward to the 0z nam. Purples man. Purples. i'm most interested in how the deform gets resolved. That's a pretty big wildcard. lol, we're sick. I was thinking the same thing. It'll be snowing outside and we're waiting for models to show said snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 22z HRRR still has that 12"+ blob over DC through 8am tomorrow. Loving me some HRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I think give me any models but the RPM and to a lesser extent GFS and I'll be happy. I still have no idea what the RPM is except that it looks warm a lot of times. TV mets seem to like it. Anyone have a clue about it. The RPM has it changing here in 15 minutes. I am 20 mile WNW of RIC, and no other model is NEARLY that agressive with the warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I have never once seen the rpm outperform what we do with blending guidance and using experience. Overall I think it's just a pretty tv model. Relying on a single model is precarious and that applies every single storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Loving me some HRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR you rang? actually, if you zoom in over the dot for DCA, is that a small speck of pink? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 lol, we're sick. I was thinking the same thing. It'll be snowing outside and we're waiting for models to show said snow... I've patiently waited 4 years for this. My night will be alternating between window gazing, dog walking, model crunching, and drinking of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The RAP keeps getting better and better...not with thermal profiles but with getting heavy stuff in much sooner than earlier runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 you rang? actually, if you zoom in over the dot for DCA, is that a small speck of pink? It is. 18 by morning. Excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I've patiently waited 4 years for this. My night will be alternating between window gazing, dog walking, model crunching, and drinking of course. Sounds exactly like mine. I just tried to take a nap but the dogs woke me up. I'm going to be up all night it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 22z HRRR still has that 12"+ blob over DC through 8am tomorrow. Where are you seeing that? I see 0.9" QPF @ DCA thru 13z. Looks like an areawide 6-10" by sunrise, which I'm more than happy with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 23Z HRRR looking good. As was the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I've patiently waited 4 years for this. My night will be alternating between window gazing, dog walking, model crunching, and drinking of course. I second that! Except I don't have a dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Where are you seeing getting that? I see 0.9" QPF @ DCA thru 13z. Looks like an areawide 6-10" by sunrise, which I'm more than happy with. See above. Snowfall maps are always iffy but going off that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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