H2O Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 yeah...I am talking about a warm nose below 850mb between say 8z and 12z... I know. Just saying what the sounding said with the hope it is a little too warm at 850 which could mean a little too warm at 925….and wrong(fingers crossed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 yeah...I am talking about a warm nose below 850mb between say 8z and 12z... Well then this will be an uber weenie response... Given the antecedent cold air in place, if anything we should have an issue farther aloft (i.e. 800 mb and above). 900 mb is close to 3000 feet. Unless we've got ripping easterly flow instead of NE or even ENE -- and keep in mind (again) how cold the waters are -- I'm not so sure how much of that "warming" will be materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I haven't looked at the specifics of the latest short term models (RAP), or even the EC thermals. BUT, are we really thinking that elevated warming would move in as early as 8-9Z? That's like less than 12 hours from now. I had always thought DCA was good through 12Z. Maybe that's NAM hugging, but still... The NAM and GFS we should be fine... This is the warmest DCA gets on the 18z NAM..12z GFS is a bit colder, but we flirt 9z - 925,900,875,850,825 + 15. 1012.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 HRRR has areas just along the 'mixing' zone ripping pre-dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I haven't looked at the specifics of the latest short term models (RAP), or even the EC thermals. BUT, are we really thinking that elevated warming would move in as early as 8-9Z? That's like less than 12 hours from now. I had always thought DCA was good through 12Z. Maybe that's NAM hugging, but still... What do you think of the high resolution NAM? The depiction at 850 mb suggests warming above freezing crosses the western Chesapeake Bay near sunrise and vascilates for 7 to 9 hours. It seems the consensus is lots of mixing from 6 or 7 am until 5 or 6 pm and then the backside wrap around could be really OK for another 3 to 5 hours. I hope the comments about a massive thump overnght verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If it's of any interest to anyone, each run of the RPM has been nudging (quite a bit) totals east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The NAM and GFS we should be fine... This is the warmest DCA gets on the 18z NAM..12z GFS is a bit colder, but we flirt 9z - 925,900,875,850,825 + 15. 1012.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.8 HRRR hourly loop is really a thing of beauty for you guys, hope it all comes together for you. Have fun and stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's certainly in the cards. I'd still think it will be interesting to see how the lower levels pan out. I have no problems with an ENE flow crossing an icy Delaware Bay and the thinnest portion of nrn Ches Bay.. What do you think of the high resolution NAM? The depiction at 850 mb suggests warming above freezing crosses the western Chesapeake Bay near sunrise and vascilates for 7 to 9 hours. It seems the consensus is lots of mixing from 6 or 7 am until 5 or 6 pm and then the backside wrap around could be really OK for another 3 to 5 hours. I hope the comments about a massive thump overnght verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If it's of any interest to anyone, each run of the RPM has been nudging (quite a bit) totals east. I had a question early that no one answered about the RAP... how accurate is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If it's of any interest to anyone, each run of the RPM has been nudging (quite a bit) totals east. It's interesting, but that's about it. If that means its falling in line with other guidance, then great. But I'm not expecting it lead a trend to the east, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I had a question early that no one answered about the RAP... how accurate is it? I'm pretty sure it's one of the best we have at short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm pretty sure it's one of the best we have at short range. Pretty good in its range, but slight warm bias at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If it's of any interest to anyone, each run of the RPM has been nudging (quite a bit) totals east. Its also increasing the size of the DS with each run. Interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm pretty sure it's one of the best we have at short range. Well in that case I am hugging it... it has Balt County 12+ by 10 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I've found the HRRR to be vastly superior to the RAP in almost every circumstance since I've been using it. In fact I'd rather have the HRRR on my side right now than the Euro. I've never seen it blow a forecast inside 12hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I've found the HRRR to be vastly superior to the RAP in almost every circumstance since I've been using them. In fact I'd rather have the HRRR on my side right now than the Euro. I like both, but i guess the name hi resolution rapid refresh says something. The 21Z RAP is on roids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I like both, but i guess the name hi resolution rapid refresh says something. The 21Z RAP is on roids If you thought 21Z RAP was on roids, you're going to love the 22Z RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hi guys down there. Im in NH but my Mom is being operated on at 7am tomorrow in the DC area. Looking at the models I think DC wil get a foot or more but just listening to WTOP and they say 4-8" in the DC area. Seems way too low for me. What are they thinking? Dewpoints are in the mid teens and soon as the snow starts temps will drop. It will not take long to get to 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If you thought 21Z RAP was on roids, you're going to love the 22Z RAP Which site are you viewing on? The ESRL one or the NCEP one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 22z RAP has a band of 0.15+/hr just SE of DC metro from 07z to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Which site are you viewing on? The ESRL one or the NCEP one? NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hockeydude35 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 21Z RAP looks like it puts DC/NoVA into Freezing Rain from about 7am until 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If you thought 21Z RAP was on roids, you're going to love the 22Z RAP No words. I'm out to hour 10. 35 dbz with 40 dbz just south of DC heading for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hi guys down there. Im in NH but my Mom is being operated on at 7am tomorrow in the DC area. Looking at the models I think DC wil get a foot or more but just listening to WTOP and they say 4-8" in the DC area. Seems way too low for me. What are they thinking? Dewpoints are in the mid teens and soon as the snow starts temps will drop. It will not take long to get to 4". Oh man, I hope all turns out well. Questions lie in the strength/duration of the dryslot, and temperatures upstairs. Living in DC has taught me that storms can always find ways to underperform if they want to. So I think 4-8 is a good call. That's actually a big storm compared to most recent ones since January 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 21Z RAP looks like it puts DC/NoVA into Freezing Rain from about 7am until 11am. Don't care we will do our best accumulating from 11pm until then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Don't care we will do our best accumulating from 11pm until then co sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 22z RAP 700 mb VVs..here comes the thump. Gonna be some crazy rates with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 co sign And here it is for the I-95 weenies. Really doubt this will verify (It's overdone and Waldorf never beats JYO), but nice to look at. Only till 15z, so more after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 yeah...I am talking about a warm nose below 850mb between say 8z and 12z... Mine's gonna be cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From what I can see, the HRRR has been on the money all evening down south. I'm definitely weighting it over the RAP. My professor refers to the latter as the CRAP model. I agree with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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