Ji Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS is my biggest worry right now....the fact that one reliable model has us dry is cause for concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm west of 95 and expect to contend with a period of sleet. Everyone should except way far west. I understand Matt setting expectations but as an absolute statement he's wrong, there's an X probability chance 95 stays snow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It looks like the 18z H5 almost closed at hr. 42. That probably explains why the GFS is more east, right. But it did close at hr. 39 on the 12z run. So the GFS is definitely not in the Euro's camp (never was) but less so now.We might need the GFS to score the coup to have less mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm west of 95 and expect to contend with a period of sleet. Everyone should except way far west. I am fine with sleet/rain etc...I just dont want it to mix/flip at 3am when we are ripping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I understand Matt setting expectations but as an absolute statement he's wrong, there's an X probability chance 95 stays snow. Sent from my iPhone there's a non-zero chance of a lot of things happening -- continuously saying it doesn't make it more likely to occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm almost positive all the way to bay north of Annapolis will be absolutely buried by morning with 6-10+. The latest short range guidance looks phenomenal. I am not even thinking in terms of the 3/6 situation, this set-up is really not too analogous. All things considered, we look primed to get crushed. LL cold should hang in a bit longer in accordance with what Matt is saying. The antecedent airmass is fresh and impressive. Sub 30 highs make for a great stage to be set. Lower dews mean everyone will evap a bit, and in the exceptional rates that some could see, even cool dynamically. That was sort of my point earlier, although I think us on the Annapolis side would more likely average in the 4-7" end rather than 8-10". I think we all realize that the majority of the snowfall will be the front-side variety, which in this environment an amount centered ~6 inches is certainly plausible given the thermals and UVV's through 09-12Z. Our amounts will certainly be curtailed by either the elevated warm layer and/or dry slotting/reduced pcpn rates. Honestly, if I wake up to 6-8" of snow with the transition to light sleet, I won't care. That's still a pretty good hit, and any hit with the back end CCB (1-2, with 2-4" being the "boom" later tomorrow), would be additional candy. I know in deepening systems, what happens aloft obviously will dictate the low levels and SLP track. However, right up until the end of this event I still suspect the colder Bay and Atlantic shelf waters will play a role here. Obviously not with the thermal profiles aloft, but all else being equal, I would think the surface low would track a little farther east from what the EC has been showing , i.e. closer to those warmer Gulf Stream waters. That's obviously more of a wishcast if we get closer aloft sooner than later, but still, obviously initially that coastal/baroclinic boundary is going to be farther away from us than what we typically see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS is my biggest worry right now....the fact that one reliable model has us dry is cause for concern Wasnt very reliable with this storm in medium range. Why would it be now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS is my biggest worry right now....the fact that one reliable model has us dry is cause for concern Have you looked at the Radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I am fine with sleet/rain etc...I just dont want it to mix/flip at 3am when we are ripping Not scientific, but this just doesn't feel like a scenario where we see major mixing. It is mid-February and was plenty cold today. If we can't stay mostly snow in this we really suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS is my biggest worry right now....the fact that one reliable model has us dry is cause for concern I wouldn't characterize the GFS 18z run "dry" Come on, we have at least 15 18 hrs of probable snow falling on IAD and me. We better hug the GFS Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Gfs did this last february. The euro verified. It is also outnumberd 5 to 1 amoungst the resy of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It looks like the 18z H5 almost closed at hr. 42. That probably explains why the GFS is more east, right. But it did close at hr. 39 on the 12z run. So the GFS is definitely not in the Euro's camp (never was) but less so now.We might need the GFS to score the coup to have less mixing. We're likely going to mix regardless of track, so why sacrifice QPF and rates just to remain snow a little longer? Weaker, offshore low = reduced rates hence warmer sfc/less accums..stronger inland low = increased rates/dynamics/QPF, but possibly more mixing..I'll gladly take the latter. I hope the GFS busts badly and we see an ECMWF-like track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I am fine with sleet/rain etc...I just dont want it to mix/flip at 3am when we are ripping Yep, I hope it works out positive for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Not scientific, but this just doesn't feel like a scenario where we see major mixing. It is mid-February and was plenty cold today. If we can't stay mostly snow in this we really suck. the high position sucks if nothing else. tho i kinda doubt we're going to get any rain of consequence even in dc.. drizzle maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We're likely going to mix regardless of track, so why sacrifice QPF and rates just to remain snow a little longer? I hope the GFS busts badly and we see an ECMWF-like track. Well if the EURO is right and with the previous statement about the trough closing off earlier, the storm could come too far west, if the EURO latest guidance is accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Re: The EC vs. the GFS...What say the 18Z GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well if the EURO is right and with the previous statement about the trough closing off earlier, the storm could come too far west, if the EURO latest guidance is accurate.On the Euro we still get a 1.2-1.5" of QPF, mostly snow even here in DC..plus some crazy upper dynamics and sfc wind gusts around 30mph..verbatim.I'll take that over something weaker and less dynamic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 the high position sucks if nothing else. tho i kinda doubt we're going to get any rain of consequence even in dc.. drizzle maybe. Yes. In-situ damming will be prevalent, though probably not enough to close off a secondary surface high to our north. Again, if the EC is right with the more westward track, then hopefully it'll be right with the front-end thump for us along/east of I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Re: The EC vs. the GFS...What say the 18Z GGEM? 1.6" QPF @ DCA, even wetter than the Euro. I'm in total weenie mode right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 the high position sucks if nothing else. tho i kinda doubt we're going to get any rain of consequence even in dc.. drizzle maybe. I knew it when I walked out to get coffee this morning.. it is pretty darn cold.. it is persistent cold air.. that seems to be overperforming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 the high position sucks if nothing else. tho i kinda doubt we're going to get any rain of consequence even in dc.. drizzle maybe. agreed...though I am concerned about sleet...the problem with these short term models is they are warm....now the RAP does have a warm bias...it had the 850 line past Tysons corner on 2/5/10...lol but when these 0.20"/hr totals come in, we are +1 at 900 mb...I doubt that is snow....we have to be real careful about hugging uber wet models since along with the sick rates comes mixing....we can probably do ok with a shallow warm nose of like +0.4, but beyond that scares me....I don't want to go to heavy sleet as soon as we start ripping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Should we worry about virga? snow breaking out nicely south and if anything, early....don't think virga will be a big problem here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Should we worry about virga? no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 How accurate is the RAP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I knew it when I walked out to get coffee this morning.. it is pretty darn cold.. it is persistent cold air.. that seems to be overperforming Cold at the surface is not the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Not scientific, but this just doesn't feel like a scenario where we see major mixing. It is mid-February and was plenty cold today. If we can't stay mostly snow in this we really suck. I got torrential sleet in PD2 for like 6 hours and it was like 15 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Re: The EC vs. the GFS...What say the 18Z GGEM? RGEM has just shy of an inch of snow precip through 12z, and then whacks us again on the backside with over 0.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 agreed...though I am concerned about sleet...the problem with these short term models is they are warm....now the RAP does have a warm bias...it had the 850 line past Tysons corner on 2/5/10...lol but when these 0.20"/hr totals come in, we are +1 at 900 mb...I doubt that is snow....we have to be real careful about hugging uber wet models since along with the sick rates comes mixing....we can probably do ok with a shallow warm nose of like +0.4, but beyond that scares me....I don't want to go to heavy sleet as soon as we start ripping 12z euro sounding said 850s were 0.2 to 0.5 between 12z and 18z tomorrow. It might be close enough to be ok if it is a little warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 agreed...though I am concerned about sleet...the problem with these short term models is they are warm....now the RAP does have a warm bias...it had the 850 line past Tysons corner on 2/5/10...lol but when these 0.20"/hr totals come in, we are +1 at 900 mb...I doubt that is snow....we have to be real careful about hugging uber wet models since along with the sick rates comes mixing....we can probably do ok with a shallow warm nose of like +0.4, but beyond that scares me....I don't want to go to heavy sleet as soon as we start ripping I haven't looked at the specifics of the latest short term models (RAP), or even the EC thermals. BUT, are we really thinking that elevated warming would move in as early as 8-9Z? That's like less than 12 hours from now. I had always thought DCA was good through 12Z. Maybe that's NAM hugging, but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 12z euro sounding said 850s were 0.2 to 0.5 between 12z and 18z tomorrow. It might be close enough to be ok if it is a little warm yeah...I am talking about a warm nose below 850mb between say 8z and 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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