Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yup, I saw that too. Seems like a really ballsy call. Every model but the euro seems to say otherwise..... the ONLY models that dont change us to rain are the 18z NAM and the 12 UKMET....and the NAM is close....this is verbatim I think low/mid level cold will be stronger than progged, so we may not flip as early or for as long...or even have rain versus ZR....PLus MOST Of this happens during a lull between the thump and the deform.... The ONLY real thing that can f-uck up this storm is if we fllp to sleet way early during the thump and dont flip back...even if it mixes in early it may not stay that way... Please read this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm 3 miles east of 95 and my overnight forecast is 2-4, 1-3 tomorrow AM. They def think we will mix early or not get good rates overnight. where the hell do they say that? They say thursday morning.....which is consistent with almost all model guiidance....jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If you live I-95 and east THIS WILL NOT BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Obviously, the 18 NAM has a high-bias for precipitation and a cold-bias, but is there any sign it has trended west in support of the ECMWF? Not really I know I'll mix but I really want snow/sleet/snow and more than the 3-7 (or whatever the official forecast is). Wouldn't want this to be the 3rd biggest storm of the year! (unless March rocks). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I do not believe the major west movement the NWS is discussing. Yes the favored western zones will get a lot but I like my map. Major snows up and down 95 especially in northern VA like almost all models favor. Yes some mixing is likely at times. But still, this is a long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm 3 miles east of 95 and my overnight forecast is 2-4, 1-3 tomorrow AM. They def think we will mix early or not get good rates overnight. Your NAM temp profiles look good at 12z which means if you believe the NAM you could combine those two ranges and you'd still bust low. But we all know that believing the NAM verbatim is usually not a great idea. I think you probably get 4-7 inches by dawn tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm almost positive all the way to bay north of Annapolis will be absolutely buried by morning with 6-10+. The latest short range guidance looks phenomenal. I am not even thinking in terms of the 3/6 situation, this set-up is really not too analogous. All things considered, we look primed to get crushed. LL cold should hang in a bit longer in accordance with what Matt is saying. The antecedent airmass is fresh and impressive. Sub 30 highs make for a great stage to be set. Lower dews mean everyone will evap a bit, and in the exceptional rates that some could see, even cool dynamically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SPsnowman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If you live I-95 and east THIS WILL NOT BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT I think the recent NWS posting is based in current water vapor observations; SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALREADY CLOSING OVER ERN NE-KS...WHICH WAS EARLIER/FASTER THAN MOST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. THESE ERRORS PROVIDE EVIDENCE TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW...CLOSER TO THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF. I think this is new and not based on past model discussions. I take it to mean the current track of the storm based on the water vapor observations is further west than originally thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think the recent NWS posting is based in current water vapor observations; SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALREADY CLOSING OVER ERN NE-KS...WHICH WAS EARLIER/FASTER THAN MOST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. THESE ERRORS PROVIDE EVIDENCE TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW...CLOSER TO THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF. I think this is new and not based on past model discussions. I take it to mean the current track of the storm based on the water vapor observations is further west than originally thought. Even with a little more westward track and therefore some earlier/more mixing we still do quite well with the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Who broke the RAP website? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SPsnowman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Even with a little more westward track and therefore some earlier/more mixing we still do quite well with the front end. maybe. there is big difference between "quite well" and epic. I think a this point, whether folks admit it or not, epic is on the menu and needs to be served up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I guess we need to quit focusing on the JV models and start following what is going on outside ... and pray for a big thump overnight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think the recent NWS posting is based in current water vapor observations; SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALREADY CLOSING OVER ERN NE-KS...WHICH WAS EARLIER/FASTER THAN MOST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. THESE ERRORS PROVIDE EVIDENCE TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW...CLOSER TO THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF. I think this is new and not based on past model discussions. I take it to mean the current track of the storm based on the water vapor observations is further west than originally thought. Read the entire discussion carefully. They say the Euro was the model that saw this earlier close and that is why they are going with its solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't see a squall line going through central Florida on 12z EMCWF. Seems like a big omission on Euro's part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Still Think euro is wrong Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 SQL errors, rap site down... ya a big storm is coming. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well model runs are a lot shorter now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 18z GFS has ~0.6" for DCA through 12z...looks like we "may" mix around 5-6am around 0.8" total storm accumulation for DCA/IAD/BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm definitely not ignoring the gfs having the drier solution. It hasn't wavered once. It will either bust terribly or it sees the skipover of heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 See Zwytes u said "May". I say it's 50/50 if we mix or not Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm definitely not ignoring the gfs having the drier solution. It hasn't wavered once. It will either bust terribly or it sees the skipover of heavy precip. 0.6" by 12Z is not much different than the 12Z Euro---they diverge after 12Z of course, but the GFS has been steadily ramping up the overnight stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What is the track like on the gfs? Similar to nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 0.6" by 12Z is not much different than the 12Z Euro---they diverge after 12Z of course, but the GFS has been steadily ramping up the overnight stuff. True. But it's half of the high res short term models. I know they are prone to being too wet. I kinda expect more than .6 for most of us before 7am but that's more a hunch because you can back up either argument for more or less pretty easily with guidance. We'll see. We're in nowcast mode now anyway. I'm not sure global models are the goto's anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 18z GFS has ~0.6" for DCA through 12z...looks like we "may" mix around 5-6am around 0.8" total storm accumulation for DCA/IAD/BWI Matt, I didn't go back to quote it but yes you're right about the mixing. That is basically part of my first option which is a more assertive dry slot. Along with that, comes warmer temps and mixing while pushing the bands away from DC. The globals have 0.6-0.8 in the DC area through 12z which is a good background for areas that don't get creamed by banding. The NAM is telling you what's possible in the banding. Now, it's matter of getting lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 There is really 3 solutions for part 2 of storm. Euro hug the coast. More mix. Gfs not much of anything dry. And the nam jackpot dca track. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The consistent dry runs of get the GFS is mind boggling. It is like 0.75" less precip than the other models. (null) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS is still on its weird off the coast solution and limited precip. I'd say toss it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm not sure why you guys would worry about that GFS run... It looked like it had some awful convective feedback issues to me. It's been doing that all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm definitely not ignoring the gfs having the drier solution. It hasn't wavered once. It will either bust terribly or it sees the skipover of heavy precip. Yeah, this will be either the GFS' shining moment or an urgent reminder to NCEP to get those upgrades validated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If you live I-95 and east THIS WILL NOT BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT I'm west of 95 and expect to contend with a period of sleet. Everyone should except way far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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